Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Despite strong underlying growth in the core accounting business, lower cost guidance and the general approval of analysts, shares in Xero fell after first-half results.</li><li> -Xero&rsquo;s interim reveals strong growth for the core accounting business -Operating expense guidance down, Melio aspirations confirmed -Loss-making Melio to keep Xero's growth below Rule-of-40 level until FY28 -Re-rating likely requires tangible evidence of successful Melio integration and execution</li></ul>

Despite strong underlying growth in the core accounting business, lower cost guidance and the general approval of analysts, shares in Xero fell after first-half results. -Xero&rsquo;s interim reveals strong growth for the core accounting business -Operating expense guidance down, Melio aspirations confirmed -Loss-making Melio to keep Xero's growth below Rule-of-40 level until FY28 -Re-rating likely requires tangible evidence of successful Melio integration and execution

Sceptics Want Xero To Prove Melio's Added Value

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The pace of change across the tech sector is accelerating.</li><li>The global tech selloff reflects growing investor concern over the durability of software moats as AI reshapes the technology landscape.</li><li>Our ratings were unchanged over the March 2026 quarter, with Vista Group (VGL), Serko (SKO), and Gentrack (GTK) all rated OUTPERFORM.</li></ul>

The pace of change across the tech sector is accelerating.The global tech selloff reflects growing investor concern over the durability of software moats as AI reshapes the technology landscape.Our ratings were unchanged over the March 2026 quarter, with Vista Group (VGL), Serko (SKO), and Gentrack (GTK) all rated OUTPERFORM.

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 14—The Pace of Change Accelerates

<ul><li>The aggressive global sell-off across listed tech reflects a rapid change in how the market is thinking about AI risk for software companies, as large language models improve quickly.</li><li>If large model providers take over more of the interface and decision-making, some software vendors risk losing their grip on the customer relationship.</li><li>We remain OUTPERFORM on Vista Group (VGL), Gentrack (GTK) and Serko (SKO), which we continue to view constructively, underpinned by: (1) large proprietary data sets; (2) deep domain expertise across complex workflows; and (3) long-standing, trusted client relationships.</li></ul>

The aggressive global sell-off across listed tech reflects a rapid change in how the market is thinking about AI risk for software companies, as large language models improve quickly.If large model providers take over more of the interface and decision-making, some software vendors risk losing their grip on the customer relationship.We remain OUTPERFORM on Vista Group (VGL), Gentrack (GTK) and Serko (SKO), which we continue to view constructively, underpinned by: (1) large proprietary data sets; (2) deep domain expertise across complex workflows; and (3) long-standing, trusted client relationships.

Tech Sector: The Software Endgame Who Owns The Workflow

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 18th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance, EQ Resources.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 18th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance, EQ Resources.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 18th): Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

New Zealand

Xero Limited offers an online accounting system.  The software features bank transaction importing, a cashbook, a general ledger, invoicing, accounts receivable, accounts payable, financial reporting, and management of expense claims.

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Xero Ltd (XRO AU)

Sceptics Want Xero To Prove Melio's Added Value

Despite strong underlying growth in the core accounting business, lower cost guidance and the general approval of analysts, shares in Xero fell...

FNArena

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 14—The Pace of Change Accelerates

The pace of change across the tech sector is accelerating. The global tech selloff reflects growing investor concern over the durability of...

Forsyth Barr

Tech Sector: The Software Endgame Who Owns The Workflow

The aggressive global sell-off across listed tech reflects a rapid change in how the market is thinking about AI risk for software companies, as...

Forsyth Barr

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 18th): Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

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