Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Performance of SU7 so far, margin of EV biz and globalization potential prompted us to take another look at Xiaomi and we like what we saw;</li>
<li>Xiaomi surprised during the Investor Day by guiding SU7 gross margin of 5-10%. Delivery guidance also surprised to ship 100k units in 2024. </li>
<li>We raise EV profitability estimates on margin guidance and expect market share to expand as it expands to SUVs.</li>
</ul>


Performance of SU7 so far, margin of EV biz and globalization potential prompted us to take another look at Xiaomi and we like what we saw;
Xiaomi surprised during the Investor Day by guiding SU7 gross margin of 5-10%. Delivery guidance also surprised to ship 100k units in 2024. 
We raise EV profitability estimates on margin guidance and expect market share to expand as it expands to SUVs.


[Xiaomi (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$20) Rating Change]: Xiaomi EV Came at the Right Time of Consolidation

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>9926 HK/1801 HK/BGNE US/9995 HK: Stablization of insulin NDRL price suspected major changes in medical insurance policies(///////)</li>
<li>LI US/1810 HK/1211 HK/NIO US/XPEV US: In the 16th week of 2024, the growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down, LI showed negative growth, AITO rebounded, Xiaomi fell back（/////////）</li>
<li>1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: Takeaways from Xiaomi Investor Conference (+/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


9926 HK/1801 HK/BGNE US/9995 HK: Stablization of insulin NDRL price suspected major changes in medical insurance policies(///////)
LI US/1810 HK/1211 HK/NIO US/XPEV US: In the 16th week of 2024, the growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down, LI showed negative growth, AITO rebounded, Xiaomi fell back（/////////）
1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: Takeaways from Xiaomi Investor Conference (+/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926HK/1801HK/BGNE US/9995HK/LI US/1810HK/1211HK/NIO US/XPEVUS/300274SZ/ 300750SZ

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>JD/BABA/2618.HK/6690.HK/000333.SH/000651.SH/1810.HK: Some cities have begun to roll out “Trade Old in for New” home appliance  subsidies (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: Source suggested that &lt;Black Myth: Wukong&gt; will commence pre-sales on Tencent's WeGame platform on May 19th.(+)</li>
<li>SHEIN: SHEIN launches support for self-operating 3P merchants in Europe (+)</li>
</ul>


JD/BABA/2618.HK/6690.HK/000333.SH/000651.SH/1810.HK: Some cities have begun to roll out “Trade Old in for New” home appliance  subsidies (+)
700 HK: Source suggested that &lt;Black Myth: Wukong&gt; will commence pre-sales on Tencent's WeGame platform on May 19th.(+)
SHEIN: SHEIN launches support for self-operating 3P merchants in Europe (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/2618 HK/6690 HK/000333 SH/000651 SH/1810HK/700HK/SHEIN

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 26th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), CK Asset (1113 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 26th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), CK Asset (1113 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 26th): Hang Seng Bank, Xiaomi, Wuxi Biologics

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We attended Xiaomi Investor Day 2024 in Beijing on 23 Apr.</li><li>Key takeaways include: 1) SU7 delivery target: 100k units in 2024 and 10k monthly delivery in June.</li><li>2) SU7 GPM target of 5-10% in 2024. 3) SU7 breakeven at 300-400k sales per year; 4) City NOA available in May and to be rolled out nationwide in Aug; 5) Smart EV sales/service centre: target to cover 46/82 cities by end of 2024; 6) Smart driving team: 1.5k/2k staff by 2024/25 from 1k currently; 7) 2024 guidance: RMB300bn in revenue with RMB24bn in R&amp;D expenses. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We attended Xiaomi Investor Day 2024 in Beijing on 23 Apr.Key takeaways include: 1) SU7 delivery target: 100k units in 2024 and 10k monthly delivery in June.2) SU7 GPM target of 5-10% in 2024. 3) SU7 breakeven at 300-400k sales per year; 4) City NOA available in May and to be rolled out nationwide in Aug; 5) Smart EV sales/service centre: target to cover 46/82 cities by end of 2024; 6) Smart driving team: 1.5k/2k staff by 2024/25 from 1k currently; 7) 2024 guidance: RMB300bn in revenue with RMB24bn in R&amp;D expenses. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) - Key Takeaways from Xiaomi Investor Day

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

[Xiaomi (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$20) Rating Change]: Xiaomi EV Came at the Right Time of Consolidation

Xiaomi surprised during the Investor Day by guiding SU7 gross margin of 5-10%. Delivery guidance also surprised to ship 100k units in 2024.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926HK/1801HK/BGNE US/9995HK/LI US/1810HK/1211HK/NIO US/XPEVUS/300274SZ/ 300750SZ

Stablization of insulin NDRL price suspected major changes. New energy exports were generally weak in March, with new energy vehicles thriving....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/2618 HK/6690 HK/000333 SH/000651 SH/1810HK/700HK/SHEIN

Some cities begun to roll out “Trade Old in for New” subsidies. will commence pre-sales on Tencent's WeGame on May.SHEIN launches support for self...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 26th): Hang Seng Bank, Xiaomi, Wuxi Biologics

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Hang Seng Bank (11...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Xiaomi (1810 HK) - Key Takeaways from Xiaomi Investor Day

Key takeaways include: 1) SU7 delivery target: 100k units in 2024 and 10k monthly delivery in June. 2) SU7 GPM target of 5-10% in 2024. 3) SU7...

CMB International

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52-week Range

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P/E

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