Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (2899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Zijin Mining (2899 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK). 
The largest outflows will be on HSBC Holdings (5 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK). 


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2023)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Xiaomi delivered better-than-expected earnings in 1Q23 despite challenging economic headwinds, mainly thanks to record-high GPM, improving inventory destocking and efficiency enhancement.</li><li>1Q23 adj. NP grew 13% YoY to RMB 3.23bn, 5%/8% above our/consensus, while revenue was largely in-line with 19% YoY decline.</li><li>Looking into 2H23E, we maintain our positive view on Xiaomi’s earnings recovery driven by premiumization strategy, efficiency enhancement on new retail synergy, and improving internet business. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Xiaomi delivered better-than-expected earnings in 1Q23 despite challenging economic headwinds, mainly thanks to record-high GPM, improving inventory destocking and efficiency enhancement.1Q23 adj. NP grew 13% YoY to RMB 3.23bn, 5%/8% above our/consensus, while revenue was largely in-line with 19% YoY decline.Looking into 2H23E, we maintain our positive view on Xiaomi’s earnings recovery driven by premiumization strategy, efficiency enhancement on new retail synergy, and improving internet business. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – Impressive Earnings Recovery in 1Q23; Reiterate BUY

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Xiaomi reported C1Q23 top-line and non-IFRS net income (6.9%) and 20.7% vs. our est., and in-line and 39.9% vs. consensus; </li>
<li>We suggest that higher margins are transitory, as (1) key IC component prices may have bottomed, (2) EV spend is likely to ramp up further. </li>
<li>We maintain SELL and HK$ 8.2 TP, implying 26x FY23 PE.</li>
</ul>


Xiaomi reported C1Q23 top-line and non-IFRS net income (6.9%) and 20.7% vs. our est., and in-line and 39.9% vs. consensus; 
We suggest that higher margins are transitory, as (1) key IC component prices may have bottomed, (2) EV spend is likely to ramp up further. 
We maintain SELL and HK$ 8.2 TP, implying 26x FY23 PE.


[Xiaomi (1810 HK, SELL, TP HK$8.2) Earnings Review]: Good Cost Control Could Be Transitory

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 12th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Longfor, Cosco Ship Holding, CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 12th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Longfor, Cosco Ship Holding, CCB.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Longfor, Cosco Ship Holding, CCB

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1801HK:  Innovent licensed in KRAS G12C drug obtained NMPA BTD designation but is a late comer（/）</li>
<li>1810 HK: Oppo abruptly abandons development of self-developed chips (-)</li>
<li>3690.HK: A review of Meituan’s Dazhong Dianping in-store business strategy </li>
</ul>


1801HK:  Innovent licensed in KRAS G12C drug obtained NMPA BTD designation but is a late comer（/）
1810 HK: Oppo abruptly abandons development of self-developed chips (-)
3690.HK: A review of Meituan’s Dazhong Dianping in-store business strategy 


China TMT Update (May.16) - 1801HK/1810HK/3690HK: A Review of Meituan’s In-Store Business Strategy

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2023)

The June rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use todays closing prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across the...

Brian Freitas

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – Impressive Earnings Recovery in 1Q23; Reiterate BUY

Looking into 2H23E, we maintain our positive view on Xiaomi’s earnings recovery driven by premiumization strategy, efficiency enhancement on new...

CMB International

[Xiaomi (1810 HK, SELL, TP HK$8.2) Earnings Review]: Good Cost Control Could Be Transitory

We suggest that higher margins are transitory, as (1) key IC component prices may have bottomed,and (2) EV spend is likely to ramp up further, as...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Short Interest Weekly: Longfor, Cosco Ship Holding, CCB

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 12th and highlight short interest changes in Longfor, Cosco Ship...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China TMT Update (May.16) - 1801HK/1810HK/3690HK: A Review of Meituan’s In-Store Business Strategy

1801HK: Innovent licensed in KRAS G12C drug obtained NMPA BTD designation（/）；1810 HK: Oppo abruptly abandons development of self-developed chips (...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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