Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Xiaomi reported C1Q25 top line, non-IFRS operating income and IFRS net profit 2.0%, 41% and 57% vs. our estimate. </li>
<li>While there are a few product positives supporting outperformance, the main driver is still trade-in subsidy (TIS), which will start to end in C3Q25;</li>
<li>We continue to view Xiaomi as having an enviable market position as a “Huawei without the sanctions”, its valuation has also become very rich.</li>
</ul>


Xiaomi reported C1Q25 top line, non-IFRS operating income and IFRS net profit 2.0%, 41% and 57% vs. our estimate. 
While there are a few product positives supporting outperformance, the main driver is still trade-in subsidy (TIS), which will start to end in C3Q25;
We continue to view Xiaomi as having an enviable market position as a “Huawei without the sanctions”, its valuation has also become very rich.


[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$55) TP Change]: Trade-In Subsidy Is Still the Main Driver

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 1Q25, total revenue grew by 47% YoY with home appliance up by 59% YoY.</li>
<li>Both home appliance and electric vehicle will expand their capacities.</li>
<li>The stock has an upside of 29% and a price target of HK$66 for the next twelve months.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q25, total revenue grew by 47% YoY with home appliance up by 59% YoY.
Both home appliance and electric vehicle will expand their capacities.
The stock has an upside of 29% and a price target of HK$66 for the next twelve months.


Xiaomi (1810 HK): 1Q25, Home Appliance Up by 59% and Capacities Under Construction

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>US treasuries climbed yesterday, with yields declining in the long end.</li>
<li>This came on the back of a solid auction of 2Y notes, as well as a rally in JGBs on signs that the Japanese government may adjust debt issuance to ease market volatility.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST edged down 1 bp to 3.98%, while that on the 10Y UST fell 7 bps to 4.45%. </li>
</ul>


US treasuries climbed yesterday, with yields declining in the long end.
This came on the back of a solid auction of 2Y notes, as well as a rally in JGBs on signs that the Japanese government may adjust debt issuance to ease market volatility.
The yield on the 2Y UST edged down 1 bp to 3.98%, while that on the 10Y UST fell 7 bps to 4.45%. 


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Xiaomi’s 1Q25 adjusted earnings at RMB 10.7bn (+28% QoQ, +64% YoY) beat CMBI/consensus expectations by 8/18%, thanks to strong sales across all segments and GPM improvement on better smartphone mix, IoT ASP hike and smart EV GPM improvement.</li><li>Looking into 2025, we expect smartphone/EV premiumization strategy, IoT/EV capacity ramp-up and in-house SoC chip to continue to boost better revenue mix and earnings growth.</li><li>We maintain our positive view on Xiaomi’s Human x Car x Home ecosystem expansion, premiumization strategy, SP/AIoT overseas markets and smart EV biz upside. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Xiaomi’s 1Q25 adjusted earnings at RMB 10.7bn (+28% QoQ, +64% YoY) beat CMBI/consensus expectations by 8/18%, thanks to strong sales across all segments and GPM improvement on better smartphone mix, IoT ASP hike and smart EV GPM improvement.Looking into 2025, we expect smartphone/EV premiumization strategy, IoT/EV capacity ramp-up and in-house SoC chip to continue to boost better revenue mix and earnings growth.We maintain our positive view on Xiaomi’s Human x Car x Home ecosystem expansion, premiumization strategy, SP/AIoT overseas markets and smart EV biz upside. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) - Positive on Premiumization, YU7 Ramp-Up and SoC Breakthrough in 2H25E

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Xiaomi has its own smartphone chip! It's the 4th announcement (2014, 2017, 2021, 2025)? Yes it is. Why it didn’t succeed before, will it work out now? It won’t.</li>
<li>Mobile chip development costs US$800m-1bn, to be amortized on Xiaomi’s small volumes. The economics don’t work. It won’t give Xiaomi any performance / differentiation benefits.  </li>
<li>Why now? Computex was ongoing in Taipei with 10 big-size CEOs, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Mediatek, TSMC… maybe they felt lonely in Beijing? If you bought Xiaomi, please sell.</li>
</ul>


Xiaomi has its own smartphone chip! It's the 4th announcement (2014, 2017, 2021, 2025)? Yes it is. Why it didn’t succeed before, will it work out now? It won’t.
Mobile chip development costs US$800m-1bn, to be amortized on Xiaomi’s small volumes. The economics don’t work. It won’t give Xiaomi any performance / differentiation benefits.  
Why now? Computex was ongoing in Taipei with 10 big-size CEOs, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Mediatek, TSMC… maybe they felt lonely in Beijing? If you bought Xiaomi, please sell.


Xiaomi’s Own Mobile Chip Fairytale Is Back

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$55) TP Change]: Trade-In Subsidy Is Still the Main Driver

Xiaomi's strong financial performance in C1Q25 driven by trade-in subsidy, but concerns arise as subsidy ends in C3Q25. Market position strong but...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Xiaomi (1810 HK): 1Q25, Home Appliance Up by 59% and Capacities Under Construction

In 1Q25, total revenue grew by 47% YoY with home appliance up by 59% YoY. Both home appliance and electric vehicle will expand their capacities.

Ming Lu

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

Equities rebounded from last Friday’s declines, on prospects of an acceleration in trade talks with the EU. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 2.0% and...

Lucror Analytics

Xiaomi (1810 HK) - Positive on Premiumization, YU7 Ramp-Up and SoC Breakthrough in 2H25E

We maintain our positive view on Xiaomi’s Human x Car x Home ecosystem expansion, premiumization strategy, SP/AIoT overseas markets and smart EV...

CMB International

Xiaomi’s Own Mobile Chip Fairytale Is Back

Xiaomi's new smartphone chip won't succeed due to high development costs and lack of performance benefits - it could just be an announcement

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$55) TP Change]: Trade-In Subsidy Is Still the Main Driver

​Xiaomi's strong financial performance in C1Q25 driven by trade-in subsidy, but concerns arise as subsidy ends in C3Q25. Market position strong but...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Xiaomi (1810 HK): 1Q25, Home Appliance Up by 59% and Capacities Under Construction

In 1Q25, total revenue grew by 47% YoY with home appliance up by 59% YoY. Both home appliance and electric vehicle will expand their capacities.

Ming Lu

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

Equities rebounded from last Friday’s declines, on prospects of an acceleration in trade talks with the EU. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 2.0% and...

Lucror Analytics

Xiaomi (1810 HK) - Positive on Premiumization, YU7 Ramp-Up and SoC Breakthrough in 2H25E

We maintain our positive view on Xiaomi’s Human x Car x Home ecosystem expansion, premiumization strategy, SP/AIoT overseas markets and smart EV...

CMB International

Xiaomi’s Own Mobile Chip Fairytale Is Back

​Xiaomi's new smartphone chip won't succeed due to high development costs and lack of performance benefits - it could just be an announcement

Nicolas Baratte

Xiaomi's strong financial performance in C1Q25 driven by trade-in subsidy, but concerns arise as subsidy ends in C3Q25. Market position strong but...

Xiaomi's new smartphone chip won't succeed due to high development costs and lack of performance benefits - it could just be an announcement