Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The September semiconductor revenues are in, bringing the third quarter to a close.  Both the month and the quarter reached all-time highs.  Although today's boom shows no sign of ending, there is ample precedent to tell us what will occur once supply catches up with demand.  This Insight explores the current market and the likely outcome.

The September semiconductor revenues are in, bringing the third quarter to a close.  Both the month and the quarter reached all-time highs.  Although today's boom shows no sign of ending, there is ample precedent to tell us what will occur once supply catches up with demand.  This Insight explores the current market and the likely outcome.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

We continue to believe we are nearing the end of the "mixed market environment," and the beginning of a new, broad-based bull market advance. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Additionally, we would like to see MSCI China (MCHI) break above $74 resistance; this would be a major boon for risk sentiment.Charts highlighted: Russell 2000 (IWM), SOXX, XTN, GLD vs. SPY, TNX, S&amp;P 500, AMD, MRVL, XLNX, STM, MPWR, ON, ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, RUN, SPWR, CSIQ, SOL, ODFL, JBHT, KNX, LSTR, SAIA, SNDR, ARCB, MRTN, PTSI, YELL, and USAK

We continue to believe we are nearing the end of the "mixed market environment," and the beginning of a new, broad-based bull market advance. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Additionally, we would like to see MSCI China (MCHI) break above $74 resistance; this would be a major boon for risk sentiment.Charts highlighted: Russell 2000 (IWM), SOXX, XTN, GLD vs. SPY, TNX, S&amp;P 500, AMD, MRVL, XLNX, STM, MPWR, ON, ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, RUN, SPWR, CSIQ, SOL, ODFL, JBHT, KNX, LSTR, SAIA, SNDR, ARCB, MRTN, PTSI, YELL, and USAK

U.S. Equity Strategy: All Eyes On The Small Cap Russell 2000. Buying Semiconductors, Solar, Truckers

Market conditions have started to improve, and the bottom line is that all Sectors and major indexes remain above critical supports. The absence of breakdowns continues to support our overall constructive outlook, and we are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based rally is upon us.

Market conditions have started to improve, and the bottom line is that all Sectors and major indexes remain above critical supports. The absence of breakdowns continues to support our overall constructive outlook, and we are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based rally is upon us.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield. Buying Casinos, Semis

Advanced Micro Devices / Technical Analysis

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD continued to deliver astonishing top-line growth numbers over the past year, reaching more than 90% in the last quarter.</li>
<li>Contrary to the outstanding operational performance, share price underperformed the market on a risk-adjusted basis.</li>
<li>High-growth expectations already built into the price are largely to blame, while the cyclical nature of the industry should also be considered.</li>
</ul>


AMD continued to deliver astonishing top-line growth numbers over the past year, reaching more than 90% in the last quarter.
Contrary to the outstanding operational performance, share price underperformed the market on a risk-adjusted basis.
High-growth expectations already built into the price are largely to blame, while the cyclical nature of the industry should also be considered.


United States

Xilinx, Inc. designs, develops, and markets complete programmable logic solutions. The Company's solutions include advanced integrated circuits, software design tools, predefined system functions delivered as cores of logic, and field engineering support. Xilinx sells its products through several channels of distribution to customers in the United States and overseas.

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Xilinx Inc (XLNX US)

Semiconductors Continue Full Speed Ahead

Again chip sales have reached record highs. How long will this last? What will happen when it ends? This Insight dips into that to provide some...

Jim Handy

U.S. Equity Strategy: All Eyes On The Small Cap Russell 2000. Buying Semiconductors, Solar, Truckers

The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOXX) and the equal-weighted Transportation Sector (XTN) are the latest cyclical areas to break out to new YTD...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield. Buying Casinos, Semis

We are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Despite our overall cautious outlook, several areas are attractive and buyable, including: Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Management...

Vermilion Research

AMD: Still Too Expensive

AMD continued to deliver astonishing top-line growth numbers over the past year, reaching more than 90% in the last quarter. Contrary to the...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

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