Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Itausa’s equity value is predominantly composed of its core holding stake in big cap Latin American bank Itaú Unibanco whilst it has actively reduced its exposure to wealth tech XP</li>
<li>Yet these two financials together account for over 90% of Itausa’s total equity value, with Itaú accounting for almost the entirety of that value</li>
<li>Itausa is trading at a HoldCo NAV discount of over 25%, which is historically high; currently, Itausa is an excellent vehicle that provides indirect and discounted exposure to Itaú</li>
</ul>


Itausa’s equity value is predominantly composed of its core holding stake in big cap Latin American bank Itaú Unibanco whilst it has actively reduced its exposure to wealth tech XP
Yet these two financials together account for over 90% of Itausa’s total equity value, with Itaú accounting for almost the entirety of that value
Itausa is trading at a HoldCo NAV discount of over 25%, which is historically high; currently, Itausa is an excellent vehicle that provides indirect and discounted exposure to Itaú


Itausa (ITSA4 BZ) – Big NAV Discount Provides Attractive Indirect Exposure to Brazilian Bank Itaú

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After last year, XP screens better versus its global wealth manager and broker peer group on most valuation metrics, yet we remain concerned about share overhang and the competitive climate</li>
<li>Itausa’s NAV discount is narrow, a potential sell signal; Itausa has historically provided discounted exposure to its second largest holding XP, but its XP exposure is now heavily diluted</li>
<li>The global wealth manager screen indicates that UK wealth manager Quilter stands out for its value attributes, especially on PE, market capitalisation to revenue and AUM to market capitalisation ratios</li>
</ul>


After last year, XP screens better versus its global wealth manager and broker peer group on most valuation metrics, yet we remain concerned about share overhang and the competitive climate
Itausa’s NAV discount is narrow, a potential sell signal; Itausa has historically provided discounted exposure to its second largest holding XP, but its XP exposure is now heavily diluted
The global wealth manager screen indicates that UK wealth manager Quilter stands out for its value attributes, especially on PE, market capitalisation to revenue and AUM to market capitalisation ratios


XP (XP US) – Despite the Share Price De-Rating, Better Value to Be Found Elsewhere

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lula’s narrow win in the second round of the Brazilian Presential election has so far passed in relative calm, although sitting President Jair Bolsonaro has yet to concede defeat</li>
<li>Markets will be hoping for a peaceful transition, and influential Bolsonaro allies have asked Brazilians to respect the result, to avoid social unrest and any potential intervention by the military</li>
<li>It is unclear how anti-market Lula’s policies will be but we expect downside risk for Brazilian financials and fintechs; Banco do Brasil is in for volatility, Itausa may be defensive</li>
</ul>


Lula’s narrow win in the second round of the Brazilian Presential election has so far passed in relative calm, although sitting President Jair Bolsonaro has yet to concede defeat
Markets will be hoping for a peaceful transition, and influential Bolsonaro allies have asked Brazilians to respect the result, to avoid social unrest and any potential intervention by the military
It is unclear how anti-market Lula’s policies will be but we expect downside risk for Brazilian financials and fintechs; Banco do Brasil is in for volatility, Itausa may be defensive


Brazilian Presidential Election; What Could a Lula Victory Mean for Financials and Fintech?

<ul>
<li>Itausa has acquired a 10.3% stake in toll road company CCR, in a diversification move away from its core financials holdings; yet financials still account for 90%+ of holdings value</li>
<li>Itausa’s stated NAV discount is over 26%, and we believe this discount is slightly under-estimated; Itausa’s indirect XP stake adds to the NAV, implying a discount of close to 28%</li>
<li>Reinvesting the proceeds of XP disposals in CCR makes good diversification sense; aside from the historically high NAV discount, Itausa has an attractive LTM dividend yield of over 5%</li>
</ul>


Itausa has acquired a 10.3% stake in toll road company CCR, in a diversification move away from its core financials holdings; yet financials still account for 90%+ of holdings value
Itausa’s stated NAV discount is over 26%, and we believe this discount is slightly under-estimated; Itausa’s indirect XP stake adds to the NAV, implying a discount of close to 28%
Reinvesting the proceeds of XP disposals in CCR makes good diversification sense; aside from the historically high NAV discount, Itausa has an attractive LTM dividend yield of over 5%


Itausa (ITSA4 BZ); Attractive NAV Discount, Dividend Yield & Portfolio Diversification Are Positives

<ul>
<li>Itausa is trading at a HoldCo NAV discount in excess of 25%, which is historically rare; we reiterate our positive view on Itausa</li>
<li>We believe that the NAV is under-estimated; separate from Itausa’s stake in XP, Itaú Unibanco, which is Itausa’s core holding with a 37.2% stake, has a direct 9.96% XP stake</li>
<li>Adding its indirect XP stake share to Itausa’s NAV implies a discount of 27%; since December 2008, only on 11% of the month end datapoints has Itausa’s discount exceeded 25%</li>
</ul>


Itausa is trading at a HoldCo NAV discount in excess of 25%, which is historically rare; we reiterate our positive view on Itausa
We believe that the NAV is under-estimated; separate from Itausa’s stake in XP, Itaú Unibanco, which is Itausa’s core holding with a 37.2% stake, has a direct 9.96% XP stake
Adding its indirect XP stake share to Itausa’s NAV implies a discount of 27%; since December 2008, only on 11% of the month end datapoints has Itausa’s discount exceeded 25%


Itausa (ITSA4 BZ) – Historically Big NAV Discount Buying Opportunity

Brazil

XP Inc operates as an investment management company. The Company offers fixed income, equities, investment funds, and private pension products, as well as offers wealth management and other financial services. XP serves customers in Brazil.

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XP (XP US)

Itausa (ITSA4 BZ) – Big NAV Discount Provides Attractive Indirect Exposure to Brazilian Bank Itaú

Itausa's equity value is mainly derived from its stake in Itaú Unibanco, with limited exposure to XP; Itausa trades at a big discount, making it...

Victor Galliano

Brazilian Presidential Election; What Could a Lula Victory Mean for Financials and Fintech?

Lula's victory is near term negative for Brazil risk assets; in fintech & financials, we see volatility risk for Banco do Brasil, we are negative...

Victor Galliano

Itausa (ITSA4 BZ); Attractive NAV Discount, Dividend Yield & Portfolio Diversification Are Positives

Itausa's wide NAV discount, dividend yield of 5%+ and its portfolio diversification into infrastructure are all positives which we expect to lead...

Victor Galliano

Itausa (ITSA4 BZ) – Historically Big NAV Discount Buying Opportunity

Itausa is trading at a HoldCo NAV discount of 25%+, which is rare; in addition, we estimate that Itausa's enhanced NAV discount is a historically...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Itausa (ITSA4 BZ) – Big NAV Discount Provides Attractive Indirect Exposure to Brazilian Bank Itaú

​Itausa's equity value is mainly derived from its stake in Itaú Unibanco, with limited exposure to XP; Itausa trades at a big discount, making it...

Victor Galliano

XP (XP US) – Despite the Share Price De-Rating, Better Value to Be Found Elsewhere

XP remains at risk of downgrades for consensus estimates and share overhang is a valid concern; Itausa, historically a vehicle for diluted XP...

Victor Galliano

Brazilian Presidential Election; What Could a Lula Victory Mean for Financials and Fintech?

Lula's victory is near term negative for Brazil risk assets; in fintech & financials, we see volatility risk for Banco do Brasil, we are negative...

Victor Galliano

Itausa (ITSA4 BZ); Attractive NAV Discount, Dividend Yield & Portfolio Diversification Are Positives

Itausa's wide NAV discount, dividend yield of 5%+ and its portfolio diversification into infrastructure are all positives which we expect to lead...

Victor Galliano

Itausa (ITSA4 BZ) – Historically Big NAV Discount Buying Opportunity

Itausa is trading at a HoldCo NAV discount of 25%+, which is rare; in addition, we estimate that Itausa's enhanced NAV discount is a historically...

Victor Galliano

Itausa's equity value is mainly derived from its stake in Itaú Unibanco, with limited exposure to XP; Itausa trades at a big discount, making it...