Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.0bn in the shortened pre-holiday week.</li>
<li>Remarkable this past week, again, was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well.</li>
</ul>


A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.0bn in the shortened pre-holiday week.
Remarkable this past week, again, was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>One year ago we looked at the arrangement between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renault-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21536:1" rel="noopener">Renault (RNO FP)</a> regarding their relationship, which left Renault with a 28% Nissan stake to be sold.</li>
<li>Since then, Renault has undertaken one selldown but its recent announcement of Ampere’s listing cancellation once again raises the possibility of a further selldown of Nissan’s stake by Renault.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates since our previous note and the impact of the Ampere listing delay.</li>
</ul>


One year ago we looked at the arrangement between Nissan (7201 JP) and Renault (RNO FP) regarding their relationship, which left Renault with a 28% Nissan stake to be sold.
Since then, Renault has undertaken one selldown but its recent announcement of Ampere’s listing cancellation once again raises the possibility of a further selldown of Nissan’s stake by Renault.
In this note, we talk about the updates since our previous note and the impact of the Ampere listing delay.


Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Updates - Lack of Ampere Listing Brings Back the US$4bn Overhang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We summarize the Jan 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Dec 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jan 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The blended average discounts for foreign brands slightly narrowed MoM in Jan 2024, based on our calculations, while those for Chinese brands widened by 0.6ppt MoM on average, as Chinese automakers are probably more aggressive in pushing sales before the Chinese New Year (CNY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jan 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Dec 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jan 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The blended average discounts for foreign brands slightly narrowed MoM in Jan 2024, based on our calculations, while those for Chinese brands widened by 0.6ppt MoM on average, as Chinese automakers are probably more aggressive in pushing sales before the Chinese New Year (CNY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Chinese Brands’ Discounts Continued to Widen in Jan

<ul><li>We summarize the Jan 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.</li><li>The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jan 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Moderate Leading Indicators May Result in Mild Recovery After CNY

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 26th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 26th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (9868 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL

SOUTHBOUND saw net buying on this shortened week pre-CNY as stocks rebounded from the previous week's dramatic selloff. High Div SOEs were bought...

Travis Lundy

Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Updates - Lack of Ampere Listing Brings Back the US$4bn Overhang

A year ago we looked at the arrangement between Nissan and Renault regarding their relationship, which left Renault with a 28% Nissan stake to be...

Sumeet Singh

Auto - Chinese Brands’ Discounts Continued to Widen in Jan

Discounts at dealers usually narrow after the CNY amid more new model launches, which did not occur in 2022 and 2023, as price war outweighed new...

CMB International

Auto - Moderate Leading Indicators May Result in Mild Recovery After CNY

We summarize the Jan 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 26th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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