Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Vietnamese automaker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> made its public debut on 15th August via a SPAC deal which valued the company approx. US$23bn.</li>
<li>Shares opened US$22 per share and went up to $37.06 at the end of first-day. Share price hit a peak of $82.35, however, shares closed last at $34.71 per share.</li>
<li>Our forecasts and valuation for Vinfast suggest that the company’s shares are still overvalued even after falling more than 50% from its peak over the last few days.</li>
</ul>


Vietnamese automaker Vinfast (VFS US) made its public debut on 15th August via a SPAC deal which valued the company approx. US$23bn.
Shares opened US$22 per share and went up to $37.06 at the end of first-day. Share price hit a peak of $82.35, however, shares closed last at $34.71 per share.
Our forecasts and valuation for Vinfast suggest that the company’s shares are still overvalued even after falling more than 50% from its peak over the last few days.


Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 0.4% YoY and 10% MoM in Jul 2023 amid high base, 2% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>YTD retail sales volume rose 4% YoY. Wholesale volume fell 3% YoY and 7% MoM to 2.10mn units in Jul 2023, the second highest Jul in history, and 2% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY (or +0.84mn units YoY) YTD, aided by 78% YoY growth (or +0.92mn units YoY) of exports. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 0.4% YoY and 10% MoM in Jul 2023 amid high base, 2% higher than our prior forecast.YTD retail sales volume rose 4% YoY. Wholesale volume fell 3% YoY and 7% MoM to 2.10mn units in Jul 2023, the second highest Jul in history, and 2% higher than our prior forecast.Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY (or +0.84mn units YoY) YTD, aided by 78% YoY growth (or +0.92mn units YoY) of exports. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – 2H23 Auto Sales Could Beat Amid Resilient Jul, Aug

<ul><li>We summarize the Jul 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.</li><li>New orders per store for these six NEV brands have been rising MoM since Apr 2023, which is consistent with our prior argument that NEV market share in China could rise sequentially for the remainder of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jul 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.New orders per store for these six NEV brands have been rising MoM since Apr 2023, which is consistent with our prior argument that NEV market share in China could rise sequentially for the remainder of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jul leading indicators: NEV new orders rose MoM

<ul><li>We summarize the Jul 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Jun 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jul retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>Discounts at dealers for most Chinese brands narrowed MoM in Jul 2023, consistent with our prior argument that discounts may peak around Jun-Jul 2023. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jul 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Jun 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jul retail sales volume data have not been released yet.Discounts at dealers for most Chinese brands narrowed MoM in Jul 2023, consistent with our prior argument that discounts may peak around Jun-Jul 2023. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jul discount: Chinese narrowed, foreign widened

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

Schools /In Depth: Why some kids in China can’t play during recessYuan /: Argentina taps China currency swap line to help repay IMF loanPMI /: China’s services sector maintains recovery, Caixin PMI shows

Schools /In Depth: Why some kids in China can’t play during recessYuan /: Argentina taps China currency swap line to help repay IMF loanPMI /: China’s services sector maintains recovery, Caixin PMI shows

CX Daily: Why Some Kids in China Can’t Play During Recess

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (9868 HK)

Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive

After making a stellar debut, Vinfast's share price has dropped more than 50% over the last few days from its peak. Our forecasts and valuation...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

China Auto Sector – 2H23 Auto Sales Could Beat Amid Resilient Jul, Aug

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 0.4% YoY and 10% MoM in Jul 2023 amid high base, 2% higher than our prior forecast.

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Jul leading indicators: NEV new orders rose MoM

We summarize the Jul 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Jul discount: Chinese narrowed, foreign widened

Discounts at dealers for most Chinese brands narrowed MoM in Jul 2023, consistent with our prior argument that discounts may peak around Jun-Jul 2023.

CMB International

CX Daily: Why Some Kids in China Can’t Play During Recess

Schools /In Depth: Why some kids in China can’t play during recess Yuan /: Argentina taps China currency swap line to help repay IMF loan PMI /:...

Caixin Global

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Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive

​After making a stellar debut, Vinfast's share price has dropped more than 50% over the last few days from its peak. Our forecasts and valuation...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

China Auto Sector – 2H23 Auto Sales Could Beat Amid Resilient Jul, Aug

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 0.4% YoY and 10% MoM in Jul 2023 amid high base, 2% higher than our prior forecast.

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Jul leading indicators: NEV new orders rose MoM

We summarize the Jul 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Jul discount: Chinese narrowed, foreign widened

Discounts at dealers for most Chinese brands narrowed MoM in Jul 2023, consistent with our prior argument that discounts may peak around Jun-Jul 2023.

CMB International

CX Daily: Why Some Kids in China Can’t Play During Recess

Schools /In Depth: Why some kids in China can’t play during recess Yuan /: Argentina taps China currency swap line to help repay IMF loan PMI /:...

Caixin Global

After making a stellar debut, Vinfast's share price has dropped more than 50% over the last few days from its peak. Our forecasts and valuation...