Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>XPeng (XPEV) reported C1Q25 top line (3.3%)/1.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss are 25%/50% better than our estimates, </li>
<li>Given XPEV will launch 5 models updates in C2Q25 and 2 new models in C3Q25 and project an operating breakeven in C4Q25, </li>
<li>We raise the TP from US$26 to US$30 and elevate the rating to TOP BUY</li>
</ul>


XPeng (XPEV) reported C1Q25 top line (3.3%)/1.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss are 25%/50% better than our estimates, 
Given XPEV will launch 5 models updates in C2Q25 and 2 new models in C3Q25 and project an operating breakeven in C4Q25, 
We raise the TP from US$26 to US$30 and elevate the rating to TOP BUY


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$30) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Early Signs of a Chinese Tesla

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>XPeng and Nio abandon Nvidia Thor chip over delays, impacting production schedules and development timelines.</li><li>Wistron set to establish new plant in Vietnam in 2025, with potential expansion of current facilities, boosting local economy.</li><li>MSI launches made-in-India notebooks as part of market expansion strategy, tapping into growing demand for tech products in the region.</li></ul>

XPeng and Nio abandon Nvidia Thor chip over delays, impacting production schedules and development timelines.Wistron set to establish new plant in Vietnam in 2025, with potential expansion of current facilities, boosting local economy.MSI launches made-in-India notebooks as part of market expansion strategy, tapping into growing demand for tech products in the region.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Dec-2024): XPeng, Nio drop Nvidia Thor chip due to delays.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

<ul>
<li>C3Q24 results from LEAP Motors seems to indicate the profit margins of low-priced EV can reach high single digits.</li>
<li>We thus revised up XPEV's 2024-25 top line by 8% and 28% on successful launch of P7+, 2024-25 gross margins by 0.6ppt and 1.7ppt</li>
<li>Despite these improvements, we opt to maintain the rating of SELL and TP of US$5 unchanged as XPEV's path to profitability is still unclear.</li>
</ul>


C3Q24 results from LEAP Motors seems to indicate the profit margins of low-priced EV can reach high single digits.
We thus revised up XPEV's 2024-25 top line by 8% and 28% on successful launch of P7+, 2024-25 gross margins by 0.6ppt and 1.7ppt
Despite these improvements, we opt to maintain the rating of SELL and TP of US$5 unchanged as XPEV's path to profitability is still unclear.


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$5) Company Update]: Material and Component Pricing Drove Cost Down

<ul>
<li>XPeng (XPEV) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net income in line, 5.4% worse and 7.5% better than our estimate. </li>
<li>We raised our MONA forecast by 13% but still significantly below XPEV’s guidance. We believe management guidance is overly optimistic;</li>
<li>We maintain a SELL rating on the stock and TP unchanged.</li>
</ul>


XPeng (XPEV) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net income in line, 5.4% worse and 7.5% better than our estimate. 
We raised our MONA forecast by 13% but still significantly below XPEV’s guidance. We believe management guidance is overly optimistic;
We maintain a SELL rating on the stock and TP unchanged.


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$2) Earnings Review]: Delivery Goal for MONA M03 Is Unrealistic

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (XPEV US)

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$30) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Early Signs of a Chinese Tesla

XPeng (XPEV) beats estimates in Q1, plans new model launches and aims for operating breakeven in Q4, prompting analysts to raise TP to US$30 and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Dec-2024): XPeng, Nio drop Nvidia Thor chip due to delays.

XPeng and Nio switch from Nvidia Thor chip, Wistron to open new plant in Vietnam, MSI introduces Indian-made notebooks, Honda and Nissan mull...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$5) Company Update]: Material and Component Pricing Drove Cost Down

LEAP Motors' C3Q24 results show potential for high profit margins on low-priced EVs, prompting a slight increase in XPEV's revenue and gross...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$2) Earnings Review]: Delivery Goal for MONA M03 Is Unrealistic

XPeng reported mixed financial results for the second quarter, with revenue slightly below expectations and net income exceeding estimates. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$30) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Early Signs of a Chinese Tesla

​XPeng (XPEV) beats estimates in Q1, plans new model launches and aims for operating breakeven in Q4, prompting analysts to raise TP to US$30 and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Dec-2024): XPeng, Nio drop Nvidia Thor chip due to delays.

XPeng and Nio switch from Nvidia Thor chip, Wistron to open new plant in Vietnam, MSI introduces Indian-made notebooks, Honda and Nissan mull...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$5) Company Update]: Material and Component Pricing Drove Cost Down

​LEAP Motors' C3Q24 results show potential for high profit margins on low-priced EVs, prompting a slight increase in XPEV's revenue and gross...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$2) Earnings Review]: Delivery Goal for MONA M03 Is Unrealistic

​XPeng reported mixed financial results for the second quarter, with revenue slightly below expectations and net income exceeding estimates. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

XPeng (XPEV) beats estimates in Q1, plans new model launches and aims for operating breakeven in Q4, prompting analysts to raise TP to US$30 and...

LEAP Motors' C3Q24 results show potential for high profit margins on low-priced EVs, prompting a slight increase in XPEV's revenue and gross...

XPeng reported mixed financial results for the second quarter, with revenue slightly below expectations and net income exceeding estimates. We...