IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges. </li>
<li>NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.  </li>
<li>NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers. </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges. 
NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.  
NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers. 


2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>XPeng reported C2Q25 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss (5.4%), 28% wider and 10% narrower than our estimate and (2.2%), 13% narrower and 49% narrower than consensus. </li>
<li>Vehicle gross margin beat our estimate by 2.3ppt, consensus by 1.7ppt, and improved 14ppt YoY and 1.8% QoQ. XPEV guided for breakeven in C4Q25;</li>
<li>We reiterate our TOP BUY on XPEV with TP unchanged.</li>
</ul>


XPeng reported C2Q25 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss (5.4%), 28% wider and 10% narrower than our estimate and (2.2%), 13% narrower and 49% narrower than consensus. 
Vehicle gross margin beat our estimate by 2.3ppt, consensus by 1.7ppt, and improved 14ppt YoY and 1.8% QoQ. XPEV guided for breakeven in C4Q25;
We reiterate our TOP BUY on XPEV with TP unchanged.


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$28) Review]: When Margin and Cash Is Right, Growth Is Secondary

<ul>
<li>XPeng (XPEV) reported C1Q25 top line (3.3%)/1.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss are 25%/50% better than our estimates, </li>
<li>Given XPEV will launch 5 models updates in C2Q25 and 2 new models in C3Q25 and project an operating breakeven in C4Q25, </li>
<li>We raise the TP from US$26 to US$30 and elevate the rating to TOP BUY</li>
</ul>


XPeng (XPEV) reported C1Q25 top line (3.3%)/1.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss are 25%/50% better than our estimates, 
Given XPEV will launch 5 models updates in C2Q25 and 2 new models in C3Q25 and project an operating breakeven in C4Q25, 
We raise the TP from US$26 to US$30 and elevate the rating to TOP BUY


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$30) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Early Signs of a Chinese Tesla

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>XPeng and Nio abandon Nvidia Thor chip over delays, impacting production schedules and development timelines.</li><li>Wistron set to establish new plant in Vietnam in 2025, with potential expansion of current facilities, boosting local economy.</li><li>MSI launches made-in-India notebooks as part of market expansion strategy, tapping into growing demand for tech products in the region.</li></ul>

XPeng and Nio abandon Nvidia Thor chip over delays, impacting production schedules and development timelines.Wistron set to establish new plant in Vietnam in 2025, with potential expansion of current facilities, boosting local economy.MSI launches made-in-India notebooks as part of market expansion strategy, tapping into growing demand for tech products in the region.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Dec-2024): XPeng, Nio drop Nvidia Thor chip due to delays.

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (XPEV US)

2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

4Q deliveries guidance was below expectations, and the sales momentum is declining. Breakeven targets are likely to be pushed out. The valuation is...

Arun George

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$28) Review]: When Margin and Cash Is Right, Growth Is Secondary

XPeng reported Q2 2025 financials, with losses wider than expected but improved vehicle gross margin. Analysts maintain a top buy rating with...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$30) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Early Signs of a Chinese Tesla

XPeng (XPEV) beats estimates in Q1, plans new model launches and aims for operating breakeven in Q4, prompting analysts to raise TP to US$30 and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Dec-2024): XPeng, Nio drop Nvidia Thor chip due to delays.

XPeng and Nio switch from Nvidia Thor chip, Wistron to open new plant in Vietnam, MSI introduces Indian-made notebooks, Honda and Nissan mull...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

4Q deliveries guidance was below expectations, and the sales momentum is declining. Breakeven targets are likely to be pushed out. The valuation is...

Arun George

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$28) Review]: When Margin and Cash Is Right, Growth Is Secondary

​XPeng reported Q2 2025 financials, with losses wider than expected but improved vehicle gross margin. Analysts maintain a top buy rating with...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$30) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Early Signs of a Chinese Tesla

​XPeng (XPEV) beats estimates in Q1, plans new model launches and aims for operating breakeven in Q4, prompting analysts to raise TP to US$30 and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Dec-2024): XPeng, Nio drop Nvidia Thor chip due to delays.

XPeng and Nio switch from Nvidia Thor chip, Wistron to open new plant in Vietnam, MSI introduces Indian-made notebooks, Honda and Nissan mull...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

XPeng reported Q2 2025 financials, with losses wider than expected but improved vehicle gross margin. Analysts maintain a top buy rating with...

XPeng (XPEV) beats estimates in Q1, plans new model launches and aims for operating breakeven in Q4, prompting analysts to raise TP to US$30 and...