Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The latest quarterly report from XPO Logistics, Inc. presents a mixed but generally constructive view of the company’s operational and financial performance amid a recovering freight environment.</li><li>XPO Logistics reported record first-quarter earnings, with adjusted EBITDA increasing 15% year-over-year to $319 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share rising 38% to $1.01.</li><li>Revenue grew by 7% to $2.1 billion, supported primarily by the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment, which saw a 5% revenue increase driven by higher yield and fuel surcharge revenue.</li></ul>

The latest quarterly report from XPO Logistics, Inc. presents a mixed but generally constructive view of the company’s operational and financial performance amid a recovering freight environment.XPO Logistics reported record first-quarter earnings, with adjusted EBITDA increasing 15% year-over-year to $319 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share rising 38% to $1.01.Revenue grew by 7% to $2.1 billion, supported primarily by the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment, which saw a 5% revenue increase driven by higher yield and fuel surcharge revenue.

XPO: Can 30% Excess Door Capacity Capture Demand Upside?

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

COVID-19 vaccines figure into Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan, though with a clear emphasis on distribution versus development (as was Trump's focus). Biden's prioritisation of vaccine distribution – and the US$25 billion earmarked for it – is a gift for "cold chain" stocks."Cold chain" refers to a complex temperature-controlled supply chain that is mission-critical to the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. Critical, because vaccines require consistent ultra-cold storage from manufacture to needle-stick, otherwise those expensive vaccines become medical waste.This Insight looks at cold chain stocks as an investment theme inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/biden-covid-19-response-plan-overview-of-its-inherent-investment-themes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45631" rel="noopener">Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes</a>). Although the cold chain is fragmented and largely privately-held, but there are opportunities in three areas:<ol>
<li>
Freight and Logistics: Most listed companies fall into this category, including both integrated cold chain freight and logistics stocks, as well as niche players in either of freight or logistics.</li>
<li>
Freezer Manufacturers: Ultra-cold freezer boxes and related industrial components of various shapes and sizes are needed for the cold chain to function. Several stocks serve this segment.</li>
<li>
Specialty Chemicals: Dry ice gets all the headlines, as massive amounts are needed but supply is short, but other specialty chemicals and industrial gases are also needed in the cold chain.</li>
</ol>

COVID-19 vaccines figure into Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan, though with a clear emphasis on distribution versus development (as was Trump's focus). Biden's prioritisation of vaccine distribution – and the US$25 billion earmarked for it – is a gift for "cold chain" stocks."Cold chain" refers to a complex temperature-controlled supply chain that is mission-critical to the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. Critical, because vaccines require consistent ultra-cold storage from manufacture to needle-stick, otherwise those expensive vaccines become medical waste.This Insight looks at cold chain stocks as an investment theme inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan (see Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes). Although the cold chain is fragmented and largely privately-held, but there are opportunities in three areas:

Freight and Logistics: Most listed companies fall into this category, including both integrated cold chain freight and logistics stocks, as well as niche players in either of freight or logistics.

Freezer Manufacturers: Ultra-cold freezer boxes and related industrial components of various shapes and sizes are needed for the cold chain to function. Several stocks serve this segment.

Specialty Chemicals: Dry ice gets all the headlines, as massive amounts are needed but supply is short, but other specialty chemicals and industrial gases are also needed in the cold chain.


Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Cold Chain Transportation and Logistics Stocks Benefit

<ul><li>XPO delivered strong financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, marked by significant strategic execution.</li><li>The company achieved a year-over-year adjusted EBITDA of $312 million, reflecting an 11% increase when excluding real estate gains.</li><li>The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) also rose 18%, indicating effective management and operational efficiencies.</li></ul>

XPO delivered strong financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, marked by significant strategic execution.The company achieved a year-over-year adjusted EBITDA of $312 million, reflecting an 11% increase when excluding real estate gains.The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) also rose 18%, indicating effective management and operational efficiencies.

XPO’s 30% Excess Door Capacity—The Hidden Operating Leverage Ready for a Freight Rebound!

<ul><li>XPO Inc. reported solid financial performance for Q3 2025, indicating strong operational execution despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.</li><li>The company's adjusted EBITDA reached $342 million, with adjusted diluted EPS at $1.07, representing an increase of 6% and 11%, respectively, from the previous year when excluding non-recurring benefits.</li><li>XPO Inc.'s North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) business was a notable contributor, showing a 10% increase in adjusted operating income and a 150 basis point improvement in the adjusted operating ratio to 82.7%.</li></ul>

XPO Inc. reported solid financial performance for Q3 2025, indicating strong operational execution despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.The company's adjusted EBITDA reached $342 million, with adjusted diluted EPS at $1.07, representing an increase of 6% and 11%, respectively, from the previous year when excluding non-recurring benefits.XPO Inc.'s North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) business was a notable contributor, showing a 10% increase in adjusted operating income and a 150 basis point improvement in the adjusted operating ratio to 82.7%.

XPO’s Cash Machine: How Smart CapEx Cuts Are Unlocking Billions in Free Flow!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...</li>
<li>...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.</li>
<li>Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.</li>
</ul>


We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...
...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.
Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.


Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

United States

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides logistics services. The Company offers expedited airfreight forwarding, warehousing management, drayage, freight brokerage, intermodal, transportation, and reverse logistics. XPO Logistics serves customers throughout North America.

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Xpo Logistics (XPO US)

XPO: Can 30% Excess Door Capacity Capture Demand Upside?

The latest quarterly report from XPO Logistics, Inc. presents a mixed but generally constructive view of the company’s operational and financial...

Baptista Research

Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Cold Chain Transportation and Logistics Stocks Benefit

Biden's COVID-19 response plan earmarks US$25 billion to vaccines, but with a twist. His emphasis is vaccine distribution, not development. That...

Kyle Rudden

XPO’s 30% Excess Door Capacity—The Hidden Operating Leverage Ready for a Freight Rebound!

XPO delivered strong financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, marked by significant strategic execution. The company achieved a...

Baptista Research

XPO’s Cash Machine: How Smart CapEx Cuts Are Unlocking Billions in Free Flow!

XPO Inc. reported solid financial performance for Q3 2025, indicating strong operational execution despite a challenging macroeconomic...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight $XLP; Add to Growth and Technology $IWF...

Vermilion Research

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