Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announced a reduction in the contribution rate to the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) by 0.14%, from 0.46% per year to 0.32% per year, effective immediately through end-2026.</li><li>We assess the net profit impact as moderate. Although the 0.14% cut translates into system-wide savings of around Bt22–23bn per year, the measure is intended to allow banks to pass on lower costs to support SMEs and vulnerable borrowers, which carry higher credit risk.</li><li>We take a slightly positive medium-term view. Allowing room for loan rate cuts should ease borrowers’ financial burdens, helping slow new NPL formation and reduce provisioning pressure over the medium to long term.</li></ul>

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announced a reduction in the contribution rate to the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) by 0.14%, from 0.46% per year to 0.32% per year, effective immediately through end-2026.We assess the net profit impact as moderate. Although the 0.14% cut translates into system-wide savings of around Bt22–23bn per year, the measure is intended to allow banks to pass on lower costs to support SMEs and vulnerable borrowers, which carry higher credit risk.We take a slightly positive medium-term view. Allowing room for loan rate cuts should ease borrowers’ financial burdens, helping slow new NPL formation and reduce provisioning pressure over the medium to long term.

Banking: BoT Cuts FIDF Contribution From 0.46% To 0.32%...

<ul><li>The SET moved against regional Asian markets, which advanced in line with gains in the Dow Jones, as declines in BH, BDMS, CPALL, CPAXT, AOT, DELTA, THAI, and SCC, together with mild weakness in banking and energy stocks, weighed on the index.</li><li>The index fell below the 1,250-point support, making market sentiment increasingly fragile and more vulnerable to selling pressure.</li><li>We recommend buying on weakness as long as the index holds above the 1,240-point level, as the recent decline was driven primarily by selling pressure in major market sectors.</li></ul>

The SET moved against regional Asian markets, which advanced in line with gains in the Dow Jones, as declines in BH, BDMS, CPALL, CPAXT, AOT, DELTA, THAI, and SCC, together with mild weakness in banking and energy stocks, weighed on the index.The index fell below the 1,250-point support, making market sentiment increasingly fragile and more vulnerable to selling pressure.We recommend buying on weakness as long as the index holds above the 1,240-point level, as the recent decline was driven primarily by selling pressure in major market sectors.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. January 13, 2026

<ul><li>The SET halted its decline and rebounded after a surge in DELTA.</li><li>The index stabilized above the 1,250-point support, keeping the price pattern positive and reaffirming the 1,250–1,240 zone as a strong support area.</li><li>We therefore maintain our buy-on-dips recommendation and believe that DELTA’s price movements will continue to have a significant influence on the index.</li></ul>

The SET halted its decline and rebounded after a surge in DELTA.The index stabilized above the 1,250-point support, keeping the price pattern positive and reaffirming the 1,250–1,240 zone as a strong support area.We therefore maintain our buy-on-dips recommendation and believe that DELTA’s price movements will continue to have a significant influence on the index.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. January 12, 2026

<ul><li>If the MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged, the baht is likely to appreciate against the US dollar (Figure 3), driven by a wider yield differential between Thailand and the US as the US cuts rates while Thailand holds steady.</li><li>We therefore recommend ‘trading’, focusing on high-dividend stocks as a buffer against valuation-driven corrections, namely THANI (KTX fair price: Bt2.30), supported by a strong balance sheet, low D/E of around 2x, and a dividend yield of about 5.2%, and ADVANC (KTX fair price: Bt346), a defensive stock with a dividend yield of around 5.0%.</li><li>The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.</li></ul>

If the MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged, the baht is likely to appreciate against the US dollar (Figure 3), driven by a wider yield differential between Thailand and the US as the US cuts rates while Thailand holds steady.We therefore recommend ‘trading’, focusing on high-dividend stocks as a buffer against valuation-driven corrections, namely THANI (KTX fair price: Bt2.30), supported by a strong balance sheet, low D/E of around 2x, and a dividend yield of about 5.2%, and ADVANC (KTX fair price: Bt346), a defensive stock with a dividend yield of around 5.0%.The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.

KTX AHEAD: MPC Rate Cut/Hold Odds Are Close, With A Slight Bias Toward A Hold

<ul><li>The Fed’s rate cuts would encourage investors to seek higher yields in riskier markets such as Asia and Thailand (narrowing US–Thailand yield gap), which should support baht appreciation (USD weakening).</li><li>KTX expects the Fed to cut its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75% at its meeting on December 11, as it seeks to balance inflation concerns against signs of weakening in the labor market.</li><li>The rapid rise in unemployment poses a more serious risk to overall economic stability than allowing temporary cost-push inflation to persist.</li></ul>

The Fed’s rate cuts would encourage investors to seek higher yields in riskier markets such as Asia and Thailand (narrowing US–Thailand yield gap), which should support baht appreciation (USD weakening).KTX expects the Fed to cut its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75% at its meeting on December 11, as it seeks to balance inflation concerns against signs of weakening in the labor market.The rapid rise in unemployment poses a more serious risk to overall economic stability than allowing temporary cost-push inflation to persist.

KTX Ahead: Fed Poised to Cut Rates Further—Even With High Inflation

Thailand

XSpring Capital Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based financial services firm that invests in diverse businesses both domestically and internationally. It operates through five segments: Securities, Fund Asset Management, Digital Assets, Asset Management, and Investment and Other, offering services like securities brokerage, digital asset dealing, and wealth management. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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XSpring Capital (XPG TB)

Banking: BoT Cuts FIDF Contribution From 0.46% To 0.32%...

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announced a reduction in the contribution rate to the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) by 0.14%, from...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. January 13, 2026

The SET moved against regional Asian markets, which advanced in line with gains in the Dow Jones, as declines in BH, BDMS, CPALL, CPAXT, AOT,...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. January 12, 2026

The index stabilized above the 1,250-point support, keeping the price pattern positive and reaffirming the 1,250–1,240 zone as a strong support area.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX AHEAD: MPC Rate Cut/Hold Odds Are Close, With A Slight Bias Toward A Hold

The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Ahead: Fed Poised to Cut Rates Further—Even With High Inflation

KTX expects the Fed to cut its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75% at its meeting on December 11, as it seeks to balance inflation concerns against signs...

Krungthai XSpring

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