External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Xtep has become more cautious about 4Q22E and FY23E, due to weaken <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">demand and mounting pressure on its inventory. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">But we maintain BUY and revise </span><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">down its TP to HK$10.52, implying a 19x FY23E P/E (from SOTP valuation </span><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">method), just because its valuation is not too demanding, at 15x FY23E P/E.</span></li><li><div><div><div><p>3Q22 was roughly inline, but slightly softened in Sep 2022.</p></div></div></div></li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Xtep has become more cautious about 4Q22E and FY23E, due to weaken demand and mounting pressure on its inventory. But we maintain BUY and revise down its TP to HK$10.52, implying a 19x FY23E P/E (from SOTP valuation method), just because its valuation is not too demanding, at 15x FY23E P/E.3Q22 was roughly inline, but slightly softened in Sep 2022.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xtep (1368 HK) – Guidance softens with mounting inventory risks

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our earnings projections for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK)</a> are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.</li>
<li>At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x - the average for top consumer discretionary names.</li>
<li>Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.</li>
</ul>


Our earnings projections for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK) are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.
At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x - the average for top consumer discretionary names.
Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.


CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

<div><ul><li>Xtep roughly maintained its FY22E guidance, which consists of faster sales growth but a slightly higher opex for Xtep kids’ brand building.</li><li>Due to likely turnaround, its industry leading growth and attractive valuation (21x), we maintain <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">BUY and kept our SOTP-based TP at HK$17.04, implying ~27x FY23E P/E.</span></li><li><div><div><div><p><strong>1H22E result roughly inline</strong>. Sales increased by 37% YoY to RMB 5.68bn, 2% above CMBI est., still strong after some trade fair order cuts for its distributors in North East China.</p></div></div></div></li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Xtep roughly maintained its FY22E guidance, which consists of faster sales growth but a slightly higher opex for Xtep kids’ brand building.Due to likely turnaround, its industry leading growth and attractive valuation (21x), we maintain BUY and kept our SOTP-based TP at HK$17.04, implying ~27x FY23E P/E.1H22E result roughly inline. Sales increased by 37% YoY to RMB 5.68bn, 2% above CMBI est., still strong after some trade fair order cuts for its distributors in North East China.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xtep (1368 HK) – Inventory Not a Worry and Guidance Maintained

Equity Capital Markets

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>At the indicated price range, or 24.8-28.6x PER for FY22F and 16.7-19.2x for FY23F, the H-share IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888 CH)</a> is not attractive enough. </li>
<li>2Q22 net profit is worse than it appears. Recent Sanya lockdown has wiped off half of the summer peak season which may even negatively affect demand during Golden Week.</li>
<li>Consensus forecasts are too optimistic and there may be another 15% downside. Given current macroenvironment, market volatility and earnings uncertainty, risk outweighs return even at the low-end of price range.</li>
</ul>


At the indicated price range, or 24.8-28.6x PER for FY22F and 16.7-19.2x for FY23F, the H-share IPO of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888 CH) is not attractive enough. 
2Q22 net profit is worse than it appears. Recent Sanya lockdown has wiped off half of the summer peak season which may even negatively affect demand during Golden Week.
Consensus forecasts are too optimistic and there may be another 15% downside. Given current macroenvironment, market volatility and earnings uncertainty, risk outweighs return even at the low-end of price range.


CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share IPO: 2Q22/Outlook Updates and Valuation Views

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.
In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and run the deal through our ECM framework.


China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

China

Xtep International Holdings Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets sportwear. The Company produces footwear, apparel, and accessories.

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Xtep International (1368 HK)

Xtep (1368 HK) – Guidance softens with mounting inventory risks

But we maintain BUY and revise down its TP to HK$10.52, implying a 19x FY23E P/E (from SOTP valuation method), just because its valuation is not...

CMB International

Xtep (1368 HK) – Inventory Not a Worry and Guidance Maintained

Xtep roughly maintained its FY22E guidance, which consists of faster sales growth but a slightly higher opex for Xtep kids’ brand building.

CMB International

China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Xtep (1368 HK) – Guidance softens with mounting inventory risks

But we maintain BUY and revise down its TP to HK$10.52, implying a 19x FY23E P/E (from SOTP valuation method), just because its valuation is not...

CMB International

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

CDFC's H-share lPO is priced too high relative to fair value based on our earnings forecasts. There are potentially better entry levels when the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Xtep (1368 HK) – Inventory Not a Worry and Guidance Maintained

Xtep roughly maintained its FY22E guidance, which consists of faster sales growth but a slightly higher opex for Xtep kids’ brand building.

CMB International

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share IPO: 2Q22/Outlook Updates and Valuation Views

We consider the indicated price range not attractive enough given current macroenvironment, market volatility and earnings uncertainty. Risk-return...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh