Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japanese inflation, which peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, gradually decreased to 3.5%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.2% in the subsequent months of 2023.</li>
<li>Inflation rates remained stable for most items, excluding Fuel, Electricity, Water, and fresh vegetables, indicating the persistence of cost-push inflation.</li>
<li>In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of Yakult, Nissin, and Seven &amp; I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.</li>
</ul>


Japanese inflation, which peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, gradually decreased to 3.5%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.2% in the subsequent months of 2023.
Inflation rates remained stable for most items, excluding Fuel, Electricity, Water, and fresh vegetables, indicating the persistence of cost-push inflation.
In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of Yakult, Nissin, and Seven &amp; I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.


Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yakult-honsha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17153:1" rel="noopener">Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)</a>'s OP fell short of market expectations by ¥500 million in 1QFY24, leading to a 15% drop in the company's share price.</li>
<li>With the post earnings price reaction, Yakult's FY+2 PE has fallen to its lowest level since before the global financial crisis, currently standing at around 18.7x.</li>
<li>We think this price reaction is unwarranted as the fundamentals haven't changed. Thus, creates an opportunity for short-term gains by staying bullish on the stock.</li>
</ul>



Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)'s OP fell short of market expectations by ¥500 million in 1QFY24, leading to a 15% drop in the company's share price.
With the post earnings price reaction, Yakult's FY+2 PE has fallen to its lowest level since before the global financial crisis, currently standing at around 18.7x.
We think this price reaction is unwarranted as the fundamentals haven't changed. Thus, creates an opportunity for short-term gains by staying bullish on the stock.


Yakult: At Its Lowest PE Since Before the Global Financial Crisis

<ul>
<li>Market expectations for Yakult's 1QFY24 earnings seem weak, with consensus looking light, and the share price currently lingering near the lower boundary of the minus 2x trend channel.</li>
<li>Therefore, we believe that even a minor earnings beat next week could potentially drive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yakult-honsha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17153:1" rel="noopener">Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)</a>'s share price back up to the ¥10,000 level.</li>
<li>We anticipate that Yakult 1000 has the potential to drive that earnings beat, as it is projected to grow by as much as 65% YoY this quarter.</li>
</ul>


Market expectations for Yakult's 1QFY24 earnings seem weak, with consensus looking light, and the share price currently lingering near the lower boundary of the minus 2x trend channel.
Therefore, we believe that even a minor earnings beat next week could potentially drive Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)'s share price back up to the ¥10,000 level.
We anticipate that Yakult 1000 has the potential to drive that earnings beat, as it is projected to grow by as much as 65% YoY this quarter.


Yakult: Yakult 1000 Could Deliver a Surprise Yet Again

<ul>
<li>Inflation, having peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, has been on a downward trend throughout the year, with figures dropping to 2.8% in November and further to 2.6% by December.</li>
<li>In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yakult-honsha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17153:1" rel="noopener">Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)</a>, Nissin, and Seven &amp; I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-foods-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12548:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Foods Holdings (2897 JP)</a> showcased excellent performance, Yakult and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> faced struggles in their recent quarters.</li>
</ul>


Inflation, having peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, has been on a downward trend throughout the year, with figures dropping to 2.8% in November and further to 2.6% by December.
In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of Yakult Honsha (2267 JP), Nissin, and Seven &amp; I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.
While Nissin Foods Holdings (2897 JP) showcased excellent performance, Yakult and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) faced struggles in their recent quarters.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> having sold some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive</a> this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


With Toyota (7203 JP) having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.
Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Japan

YAKULT HONSHA CO., LTD produces and sells fermented milk products, soft drinks and food products.  The Company also manufactures pharmaceutical and cosmetic products.  Through its subsidiary, the professional baseball team, Tokyo Yakult Swallows is owned and managed.

Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)

Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

Japanese inflation peaked at 4.3% in January 2023 but decreased to 3.5%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.2% in the following months. For most items except...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Yakult: At Its Lowest PE Since Before the Global Financial Crisis

Yakult's stock price dropped 15% due to earnings missing expectations, yet fundamentals remain steady. This offers a chance to purchase Yakult at a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Yakult: Yakult 1000 Could Deliver a Surprise Yet Again

Yakult has historically increased the production capacity of Yakult 1000 in stages, with the majority of these increments taking place during the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

Inflation in Japan has been on a decline over the year, reaching 2.6% in December 2023 after peaking at 4.3% twelve months prior.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

With Toyota having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has set the ball rolling for unwinding its cross...

Sumeet Singh