Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>FMCG retailers remained dominant and market concentration increased, with top firms expanding through consolidation. </li>
<li>Discounters, drugstores and e-commerce outperformed the market overall, while general merchandise stores and apparel/lifestyle declined.</li>
<li>Profitability varied significantly, but discounters stood out as consumers flocked to their stores to escape inflation where they could.</li>
</ul>


FMCG retailers remained dominant and market concentration increased, with top firms expanding through consolidation. 
Discounters, drugstores and e-commerce outperformed the market overall, while general merchandise stores and apparel/lifestyle declined.
Profitability varied significantly, but discounters stood out as consumers flocked to their stores to escape inflation where they could.


Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

<ul>
<li>Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. </li>
<li>The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.</li>
<li>Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.</li>
</ul>


Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. 
The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.
Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

<ul>
<li>Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.</li>
<li>The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.</li>
<li>This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.</li>
</ul>


Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.
The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.
This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.


Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yamada, Japan’s leading home appliance retailer, trade at a PER of less than 9x. Nitori, the leading furniture retailer trades at about 17x.</li>
<li>Both companies, having saturated their core market, are diversifying into the other’s territory.</li>
<li>Key Takeaway: Nitori is diversifying into a business with inherently lower margins, while Yamada moves into one with inherently higher margins.</li>
</ul>


Yamada, Japan’s leading home appliance retailer, trade at a PER of less than 9x. Nitori, the leading furniture retailer trades at about 17x.
Both companies, having saturated their core market, are diversifying into the other’s territory.
Key Takeaway: Nitori is diversifying into a business with inherently lower margins, while Yamada moves into one with inherently higher margins.


When Giants Clash: Yamada (9831) Vs. Nitori (9843)

<ul>
<li>Some of the investors who are betting on a sales tax cut are betting on all the wrong horses. </li>
<li>Even though any tax cuts are likely to focus on food, discretionary retailers could see their profits surge, while food retailers get nothing.</li>
<li>We have no idea if there will be any move on taxes. Investments that should work whether there is a tax cut or not include Yamada (9831) and Komeri (8218).</li>
</ul>


Some of the investors who are betting on a sales tax cut are betting on all the wrong horses. 
Even though any tax cuts are likely to focus on food, discretionary retailers could see their profits surge, while food retailers get nothing.
We have no idea if there will be any move on taxes. Investments that should work whether there is a tax cut or not include Yamada (9831) and Komeri (8218).


Japan's Sales Tax Cuts: How to Play Without Playing

Japan

YAMADA DENKI CO., LTD. operates consumer electronic mass sales stores throughout Japan.  The Company sells home appliances, audio & visual systems, office automation equipment, telecommunication equipment, software, and computers. The Company also provides repair services for its merchandises.

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Yamada Denki (9831 JP)

Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

When Giants Clash: Yamada (9831) Vs. Nitori (9843)

Yamada and Nitori, Japan's top retailers, are diversifying into each other's markets with different margin implications. Yamada is moving up,...

Michael Allen

Japan's Sales Tax Cuts: How to Play Without Playing

Investors betting on a sales tax cut may be focusing on the wrong sectors, with discretionary retailers potentially benefiting far more than food...

Michael Allen

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Big Retailers: Winners and Losers

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: ​FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

​Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

When Giants Clash: Yamada (9831) Vs. Nitori (9843)

​Yamada and Nitori, Japan's top retailers, are diversifying into each other's markets with different margin implications. Yamada is moving up,...

Michael Allen

Japan's Sales Tax Cuts: How to Play Without Playing

​Investors betting on a sales tax cut may be focusing on the wrong sectors, with discretionary retailers potentially benefiting far more than food...

Michael Allen

An in-depth review of Japan retailers with sales of ¥250+ in 2025: FMCG retailers dominate with market concentration increasing, discounters...

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Yamada and Nitori, Japan's top retailers, are diversifying into each other's markets with different margin implications. Yamada is moving up,...

Investors betting on a sales tax cut may be focusing on the wrong sectors, with discretionary retailers potentially benefiting far more than food...