Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.</li>
<li>92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.</li>
<li>Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.</li>
</ul>


40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.
92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.
Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fidea-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17012:1" rel="noopener">Fidea Holdings (8713 JP) </a>from Miyagi Prefecture in Japan’s northern Tohoku Region has announced that Iwate-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tohoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8169:1" rel="noopener">Tohoku Bank (8349 JP)</a> will become a wholly-owned subsidiary in October 2022, in an all-share deal.   The announcement, which was reported during market trading hours, sent both stock prices up almost 10% on Friday 2 July.  However, rather than presaging a new paradigm for these banks, the spike in the stock prices was simply a reminder of how essentially illiquid these stocks are. The shares retreated to their pre-announcement levels in the following week.Fidea Holdings is the holding company for the smallest of three banks from Yamagata Prefecture, Shonai Bank, and the smallest of two banks from Akita Prefecture, Hokuto Bank.  Tohoku Bank, from Iwate Prefecture, is the smallest of three banks based there, and roughly one-third the size of Fidea Holdings.  Far from being a ‘Band of Brothers’, the enlarged Fidea Holdings will, in effect, be little more than a school of minnows whose combined branch network of 149 branches, while nominally  covering the whole of the Tohoku Region, has little overlap; thus little opportunity to cut costs through closing competing branches or reducing the headcount significantly.  Significant inherent weaknesses in all three banks remain largely unaddressed.  It is difficult to see how simply integrating operations under a holding company structure will resolve them.While the announcement no doubt comes with the advance approval of the financial authorities, who are keen for regional banks to merge to strengthen their operations, it creates something of a dilemma for the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in that both institutions still owe taxpayers a combined total of ¥20 billion (US$181.8 million) in public funds.  Neither seems in a position to repay that capital any time soon, as we explain in this Insight.The Bank of Japan’s own ‘bad bank’, the Resolution &amp; Collection Corporation (RCC), is effectively the largest shareholder in both Fidea Holdings and Tohoku Bank through convertible preferred stock.  Will their debts be forgiven as part of the integration, or will the due date for the public funds repayment simply be extended for a further decade or so?  Will the RCC force conversion of its preferred stock into ordinary shares because of the merger, becoming overtly by far the largest shareholder?  What will be the impact of such a decision on investor sentiment for existing shareholders?  These are all important (and, for the time being, unanswerable) questions for investors.Foreign institutional investors own 12% of Fidea Holdings, and 4% of Tohoku Bank.  We fail to understand the attraction, given all the underlying weaknesses, as we detail in this Insight.  We view Friday’s ‘bounce’ in the stock prices of both Fidea Holdings and Tohoku Bank, on an unusual surge in trading volume, as a narrow ‘opportunity window’ for frustrated shareholders to exit both stocks and stay away thereafter.  That surge is over.  To those who were tempted to pile in we say:   Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!).

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP) from Miyagi Prefecture in Japan’s northern Tohoku Region has announced that Iwate-based Tohoku Bank (8349 JP) will become a wholly-owned subsidiary in October 2022, in an all-share deal.   The announcement, which was reported during market trading hours, sent both stock prices up almost 10% on Friday 2 July.  However, rather than presaging a new paradigm for these banks, the spike in the stock prices was simply a reminder of how essentially illiquid these stocks are. The shares retreated to their pre-announcement levels in the following week.Fidea Holdings is the holding company for the smallest of three banks from Yamagata Prefecture, Shonai Bank, and the smallest of two banks from Akita Prefecture, Hokuto Bank.  Tohoku Bank, from Iwate Prefecture, is the smallest of three banks based there, and roughly one-third the size of Fidea Holdings.  Far from being a ‘Band of Brothers’, the enlarged Fidea Holdings will, in effect, be little more than a school of minnows whose combined branch network of 149 branches, while nominally  covering the whole of the Tohoku Region, has little overlap; thus little opportunity to cut costs through closing competing branches or reducing the headcount significantly.  Significant inherent weaknesses in all three banks remain largely unaddressed.  It is difficult to see how simply integrating operations under a holding company structure will resolve them.While the announcement no doubt comes with the advance approval of the financial authorities, who are keen for regional banks to merge to strengthen their operations, it creates something of a dilemma for the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in that both institutions still owe taxpayers a combined total of ¥20 billion (US$181.8 million) in public funds.  Neither seems in a position to repay that capital any time soon, as we explain in this Insight.The Bank of Japan’s own ‘bad bank’, the Resolution &amp; Collection Corporation (RCC), is effectively the largest shareholder in both Fidea Holdings and Tohoku Bank through convertible preferred stock.  Will their debts be forgiven as part of the integration, or will the due date for the public funds repayment simply be extended for a further decade or so?  Will the RCC force conversion of its preferred stock into ordinary shares because of the merger, becoming overtly by far the largest shareholder?  What will be the impact of such a decision on investor sentiment for existing shareholders?  These are all important (and, for the time being, unanswerable) questions for investors.Foreign institutional investors own 12% of Fidea Holdings, and 4% of Tohoku Bank.  We fail to understand the attraction, given all the underlying weaknesses, as we detail in this Insight.  We view Friday’s ‘bounce’ in the stock prices of both Fidea Holdings and Tohoku Bank, on an unusual surge in trading volume, as a narrow ‘opportunity window’ for frustrated shareholders to exit both stocks and stay away thereafter.  That surge is over.  To those who were tempted to pile in we say:   Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!).

Fidea Holdings (9713 JP):  A School of Minnows

Financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao and his flagship company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">Sbi Holdings (8473 JP)</a> have just netted their sixth and seventh regional banks, namely secondary regional banks Kirayaka Bank and Sendai Bank from the Tohoku Region of northern Japan.On Friday 20 November 2020, the holding company for these two banks, tiny <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jimoto-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5763:1" rel="noopener">Jimoto Holdings (7161 JP)</a>, finally announced its interim results for FY3/2021.  Interim net profits collapsed 91% YoY to just ¥64 million (US$615,000), and the group’s revised full-year guidance now warns of a full-year consolidated net loss of around ¥3 billion: largely the result of accumulated valuation losses in the securities portfolio of principal subsidiary Kirayaka Bank.  To rub salt into investors’ wounds, Jimoto Holdings simultaneously announced that it was issuing 3.65 million new shares to a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">Sbi Holdings (8473 JP)</a>  for a consideration of around ¥3.4 billion (US$33.6 million).  The SBI Group will control just over 18% of Jimoto Holdings’ outstanding shares when the transactions are completed.Jimoto Holdings is the latest investment by financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao in Japan’s struggling regional banking sector, and another ‘stepping-stone’ for the SBI Group’s president towards his goal of creating a “fourth megabank”.Foreign investors would be well advised to steer clear.  The future for Jimoto Holdings is far from certain, despite the capital injection.  Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to foreign investors considering investing in the Japanese banking sector in CY2020.

Financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao and his flagship company Sbi Holdings (8473 JP) have just netted their sixth and seventh regional banks, namely secondary regional banks Kirayaka Bank and Sendai Bank from the Tohoku Region of northern Japan.On Friday 20 November 2020, the holding company for these two banks, tiny Jimoto Holdings (7161 JP), finally announced its interim results for FY3/2021.  Interim net profits collapsed 91% YoY to just ¥64 million (US$615,000), and the group’s revised full-year guidance now warns of a full-year consolidated net loss of around ¥3 billion: largely the result of accumulated valuation losses in the securities portfolio of principal subsidiary Kirayaka Bank.  To rub salt into investors’ wounds, Jimoto Holdings simultaneously announced that it was issuing 3.65 million new shares to a subsidiary of Sbi Holdings (8473 JP)  for a consideration of around ¥3.4 billion (US$33.6 million).  The SBI Group will control just over 18% of Jimoto Holdings’ outstanding shares when the transactions are completed.Jimoto Holdings is the latest investment by financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao in Japan’s struggling regional banking sector, and another ‘stepping-stone’ for the SBI Group’s president towards his goal of creating a “fourth megabank”.Foreign investors would be well advised to steer clear.  The future for Jimoto Holdings is far from certain, despite the capital injection.  Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to foreign investors considering investing in the Japanese banking sector in CY2020.

Jimoto Holdings (7161 JP):  Kirayaka Cracks

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fidea-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17012:1" rel="noopener">Fidea Holdings (8713 JP)</a>, a bank holding company based in Miyagi Prefecture in Japan’s northern Tohoku Region, has a load of problems.  Its performance ratios are poor, its deposit base is declining, its loan portfolio is shrinking and its share price has fallen below ¥100.  Now it has slashed its earnings guidance for FY3/2020 by 64%, citing trading losses incurred by its Treasury Division in reducing group exposure to equities and REITs. Yet foreign institutional investors continue to own 16% of outstanding shares.  We fail to understand why.  Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP), a bank holding company based in Miyagi Prefecture in Japan’s northern Tohoku Region, has a load of problems.  Its performance ratios are poor, its deposit base is declining, its loan portfolio is shrinking and its share price has fallen below ¥100.  Now it has slashed its earnings guidance for FY3/2020 by 64%, citing trading losses incurred by its Treasury Division in reducing group exposure to equities and REITs. Yet foreign institutional investors continue to own 16% of outstanding shares.  We fail to understand why.  Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP): Shrinking, Sinking

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the lowest level of new offerings in four years.</li><li>Meanwhile, stock buybacks have soared to a record 4.35 trillion yen (USD$41.8 bn)--the most in history presumably to shore up capital efficiency.</li><li>Opponents in principle claim buybacks inhibit growth, and investment and also impede wage growth which in turn, keeps spending sluggish.</li><li>Do Japan's persistent low GDP numbers reflect some of this corporate policy strategies? Does the same phenomenon apply to the US? </li></ul>

Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the lowest level of new offerings in four years.Meanwhile, stock buybacks have soared to a record 4.35 trillion yen (USD$41.8 bn)--the most in history presumably to shore up capital efficiency.Opponents in principle claim buybacks inhibit growth, and investment and also impede wage growth which in turn, keeps spending sluggish.Do Japan's persistent low GDP numbers reflect some of this corporate policy strategies? Does the same phenomenon apply to the US? 

Could Japan's Aggressive Stock Buyback Spree Slow an Economic Rebound?

Japan

The Yamagata Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Yamagata prefecture. The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Yamagata Bank also offers financial services such as leasing, credit cards, and letter of credit.

Yamagata Bank (8344 JP)

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

The macro backdrop for Japanese banks is pretty good. Business restructuring efforts are bearing fruit. Global macro is adding fees. Stocks are up,...

Travis Lundy

Fidea Holdings (9713 JP): A School of Minnows

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP) has announced that Iwate-based Tohoku Bank (8349 JP) will become a wholly-owned subsidiary in October 2022, in an all...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Jimoto Holdings (7161 JP): Kirayaka Cracks

Financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao and his flagship company SBI Holdings (8473 JP) have just netted their sixth and seventh regional banks,...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP): Shrinking, Sinking

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP), a bank holding company based in Miyagi Prefecture in Japan’s northern Tohoku Region, has a load of problems. Its...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Could Japan's Aggressive Stock Buyback Spree Slow an Economic Rebound?

Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the...

Howard J Klein