Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The growth in subscription services is a global phenomenon that has been growing just as fast in Japan as anywhere else. While most attention is given to music and media subscriptions, many brands and retailers of consumer goods are finding that the subscription model can be a key part of their online strategy, delivering multiple benefits across sales growth, customer data, marketing, inventory management and margin improvement.</p>

The growth in subscription services is a global phenomenon that has been growing just as fast in Japan as anywhere else. While most attention is given to music and media subscriptions, many brands and retailers of consumer goods are finding that the subscription model can be a key part of their online strategy, delivering multiple benefits across sales growth, customer data, marketing, inventory management and margin improvement.

The Subscription Economy: Keeping Customers Keen While Earning Recurring Revenues

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> is in the process of expanding its digital footprint. The company has long relied on tenant rents as a big part of its revenues and this is unlikely to change, and has also been slower than most to expand e-commerce and other digital systems. The pandemic has forced it to accelerate some plans and introduce some new ideas, many of which it has already trialled over in China.</p>

Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) is in the process of expanding its digital footprint. The company has long relied on tenant rents as a big part of its revenues and this is unlikely to change, and has also been slower than most to expand e-commerce and other digital systems. The pandemic has forced it to accelerate some plans and introduce some new ideas, many of which it has already trialled over in China.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Information Technology, Consumer Staples and Energy.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/net-one-systems-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1279:1" rel="noopener">Net One Systems (7518 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandai-namco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13435:1" rel="noopener">Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamato-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2:1" rel="noopener">Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts decreased in almost all sectors led by Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Information Technology.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, there was large short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hlb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16969:1" rel="noopener">HLB Inc (028300 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pearl-abyss-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24391:1" rel="noopener">Pearl Abyss (263750 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW Co Ltd (032500 KS)</a> as the most shorted stocks were covered. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fitipower-integrated-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8712:1" rel="noopener">Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chunghwa-telecom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9181:1" rel="noopener">Chunghwa Telecom (2412 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">Au Optronics (2409 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/realtek-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7326:1" rel="noopener">Realtek Semiconductor (2379 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innolux-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4509:1" rel="noopener">Innolux Corp (3481 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK), Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK), China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) while there was short covering on BYD (1211 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK). Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Information Technology, Consumer Staples and Energy.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Net One Systems (7518 JP), freee (4478 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP) while shorts decreased on Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP), Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP) and Yamato Holdings (9064 JP). Sectorally, shorts decreased in almost all sectors led by Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Information Technology.In Korea, there was large short covering in Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), HLB Inc (028300 KS), Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS), Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS), Pearl Abyss (263750 KS) and KMW Co Ltd (032500 KS) as the most shorted stocks were covered. Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were TSMC (2330 TT), Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT), Chunghwa Telecom (2412 TT) and Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) while shorts were covered on Au Optronics (2409 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT), Realtek Semiconductor (2379 TT) and Innolux Corp (3481 TT). 

Asia Short Interest: Cathay, PSBC, BYD, CNOOC, Bandai Namco, Anritsu, Celltrion, HLB, Fitipower

<p>With people staying at home, deliveries for e-commerce orders have a better chance of succeeding, helping failed delivery rates fall from 25% to just 11% in only five years. No wonder e-commerce and transport companies are posting higher profits.</p>

With people staying at home, deliveries for e-commerce orders have a better chance of succeeding, helping failed delivery rates fall from 25% to just 11% in only five years. No wonder e-commerce and transport companies are posting higher profits.

E-Commerce Efficiency Marches on in Japan

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• MARKET UPDATE •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/821/original/2021-01-28_05-31-21.png?1612123987" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185821"></figure></section><p><strong>PEAKY</strong> - Thursday's Vale Traded ratio was the highest year-to-date and the third-highest since the COVID-low of 13th March 2020. Down Volume reached 'Panic' levels and was the third-highest in six years. On the previous two 'Panic' days in 2020, this proved to be a buying opportunity. We are less sure this will be this case in 2021.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/822/original/2021-02-01_05-17-55.png?1612124290" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185822"></figure></section><p><strong>BOJ 'TAPERS'</strong> - The Bank of Japan, naturally intervened by purchasing ETFs but did not, however, raise its recently-reduced buying amount. The central bank also failed to intervene again on Friday, despite the sharp fall in the major indices. As a percentage of Value Traded, Thursday's intervention was the smallest in six years. With long-bond yields rising to a two-year high of 0.5%, perhaps their attention has been diverted elsewhere?</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/824/original/2021-01-30_14-31-02.png?1612124614" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185824"></figure></section><p><strong>50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVER?</strong> - As a result of Friday's decline, Total Market Value is poised to crossover the 59-Day Moving Average for the first time since 12th October - a further test of this bull market's resolve. As noted last week, 50/200-day moving average 'gaps' of over 60 are rare and normally occur at significant market tops.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/827/original/2021-01-30_14-45-46.png?1612124854" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185827"></figure></section><p><strong>RESULTS SEASON BEGINS</strong> - Since 15th January, 644 companies have reposted quarterly results. Although, as will be covered in the DETAIL section below, earnings momentum is improving. The aggregate net income forecast is above trailing net income, trailing aggregate operating, and net profit are both still declining.  Trailing and forward earnings multiples are still over 30 times, despite the 3.5% decline from the TOPIX peak on 14th January.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/831/original/2021-01-31_17-16-42.png?1612125298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185831"></figure><hr></section><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS SUMMARY - 29th JANUARY •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Of Fridays' 399 results announcements, 71% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.3% on average and a 1.7 point decline in operating margins - we are now well past the cycle low point for earnings. Only 11% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  The percentages for forecasts are less optimistic. Only 59% of forecasts and revisions scored positively, although the average score was +2.4 points.  Many large consumer-orientated businesses have yet to see a resumption of pre-COVID levels of activity.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our<strong> Best</strong> and <strong>Worst</strong> selection from Friday's announcements is the Diversified Freight Services Peer Group (which includes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamato-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2:1" rel="noopener">Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express (9062 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26070:1" rel="noopener">SG (9143 JP)</a>) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/843/original/2021-02-01_06-46-24.png?1612129615" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185843"></figure></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/846/original/2021-02-01_06-49-21.png?1612129775" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185846"></figure></section><p></p></section>

• MARKET UPDATE •PEAKY - Thursday's Vale Traded ratio was the highest year-to-date and the third-highest since the COVID-low of 13th March 2020. Down Volume reached 'Panic' levels and was the third-highest in six years. On the previous two 'Panic' days in 2020, this proved to be a buying opportunity. We are less sure this will be this case in 2021.BOJ 'TAPERS' - The Bank of Japan, naturally intervened by purchasing ETFs but did not, however, raise its recently-reduced buying amount. The central bank also failed to intervene again on Friday, despite the sharp fall in the major indices. As a percentage of Value Traded, Thursday's intervention was the smallest in six years. With long-bond yields rising to a two-year high of 0.5%, perhaps their attention has been diverted elsewhere?50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVER? - As a result of Friday's decline, Total Market Value is poised to crossover the 59-Day Moving Average for the first time since 12th October - a further test of this bull market's resolve. As noted last week, 50/200-day moving average 'gaps' of over 60 are rare and normally occur at significant market tops.RESULTS SEASON BEGINS - Since 15th January, 644 companies have reposted quarterly results. Although, as will be covered in the DETAIL section below, earnings momentum is improving. The aggregate net income forecast is above trailing net income, trailing aggregate operating, and net profit are both still declining.  Trailing and forward earnings multiples are still over 30 times, despite the 3.5% decline from the TOPIX peak on 14th January.• RESULTS SUMMARY - 29th JANUARY •Of Fridays' 399 results announcements, 71% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.3% on average and a 1.7 point decline in operating margins - we are now well past the cycle low point for earnings. Only 11% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  The percentages for forecasts are less optimistic. Only 59% of forecasts and revisions scored positively, although the average score was +2.4 points.  Many large consumer-orientated businesses have yet to see a resumption of pre-COVID levels of activity.• BEST &amp; WORST •Our Best and Worst selection from Friday's announcements is the Diversified Freight Services Peer Group (which includes Yamato Holdings (9064 JP), Nippon Express (9062 JP), and SG (9143 JP)) and Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP). 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market + Results & Revisions Update 01/29

Japan

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)

The Subscription Economy: Keeping Customers Keen While Earning Recurring Revenues

Subscriptions to physical goods are rapidly becoming a popular model. In Japan, many major retailers and brands are creating subscriptions, gaining...

Michael Causton

Aeon Expands Digital Footprint

Aeon has lagged some competitors in expanding online options for its customers and still only expects its new Ocado system to launch in 2023. In...

Michael Causton

Asia Short Interest: Cathay, PSBC, BYD, CNOOC, Bandai Namco, Anritsu, Celltrion, HLB, Fitipower

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

E-Commerce Efficiency Marches on in Japan

Japanese e-commerce fulfilment efficiency is improving month to month, with delivery failure rates plummeting in the last year. The government and...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market + Results & Revisions Update 01/29

Thursday's Vale Traded ratio was the highest year-to-date and the third-highest since the COVID-low of 13th March 2020. Down Volume reached 'Panic'...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)