Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Inflation is on the rise in Japan. Consumers have not seen higher food prices for years and are in for a shock</li>
<li>Higher wheat prices will be painful. The impact of the Ukraine war will remain for several months. </li>
<li>Several food companies rely on wheat as a key ingredient, but the impact will be more severe for some. We highlight a carbo-neutral pair trade</li>
</ul>


Inflation is on the rise in Japan. Consumers have not seen higher food prices for years and are in for a shock
Higher wheat prices will be painful. The impact of the Ukraine war will remain for several months. 
Several food companies rely on wheat as a key ingredient, but the impact will be more severe for some. We highlight a carbo-neutral pair trade


Higher Prices to Test Japan's Appetite for Wheat

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/403/original/2020-02-18_08-44-22.png?1581983074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118403"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/404/original/2020-02-18_08-42-56.png?1581983098" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118404"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THREE-YEAR LOW - With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a>'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/405/original/2020-02-18_09-29-28.png?1581985792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118405"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>LEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-<ul>
<li>Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.</li>
<li>The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.</li>
<li>The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.</li>
<li>
All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.
<hr>
• SECTOR SCORES •
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/410/original/2020-02-18_09-55-29.png?1581987489" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118410"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 
</li>
</ul>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. Source • Japan AnalyticsLEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-
Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.
The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.
The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.

All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.

• SECTOR SCORES •
Source • Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 



🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/081/original/2020-02-15_06-17-37.png?1581880049" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118081"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/082/original/2020-02-17_04-10-15.png?1581880238" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118082"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>14TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - With apologies to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro (4704 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a> who have yet to report, this will be our last daily roundup for this 'season'. After an additional 398 results and 253 forecasts/revision announcements, our Results Score dropped by a further eight basis points to -0.84, a decline of 190 basis points since the beginning of the year. The Forecast/Revision Score added three bps to reach 0.70, forty basis point higher than at the end of December. The last time that the Forecast/Revision Score was more than 150 bps higher than the Results Score was in the first calendar quarter of 2016 and preceded a sharp market upturn. The current market value is, however, ¥160 trillion higher than at that point, assisted by the constant market intervention by the Bank of Japan. Covid-19's impact will see the 2016 playbook repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. We are less optimistic that the market will repeat the 14% rise seen in 2016-Q2. The cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months.

Source • Japan Analytics14TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - With apologies to Trend Micro (4704 JP) and Bridgestone (5108 JP) who have yet to report, this will be our last daily roundup for this 'season'. After an additional 398 results and 253 forecasts/revision announcements, our Results Score dropped by a further eight basis points to -0.84, a decline of 190 basis points since the beginning of the year. The Forecast/Revision Score added three bps to reach 0.70, forty basis point higher than at the end of December. The last time that the Forecast/Revision Score was more than 150 bps higher than the Results Score was in the first calendar quarter of 2016 and preceded a sharp market upturn. The current market value is, however, ¥160 trillion higher than at that point, assisted by the constant market intervention by the Bank of Japan. Covid-19's impact will see the 2016 playbook repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. We are less optimistic that the market will repeat the 14% rise seen in 2016-Q2. The cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 14th February ▲2212 4927 8358 ▼ 6502 6098 9435

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese convenience store (CVS) sector and, in particular, the top three players, Seven Eleven (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1041" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">Familymart (8028 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1040" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>. Also covered are the smaller firms like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1043" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1043:1">Ministop Co Ltd (9946 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5762" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5762:1">Poplar Co Ltd (7601 JP)</a>, Daily Yamazaki, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19816" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19816:1">Cvs Bay Area (2687 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11801" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11801:1">Three F Co Ltd (7544 JP)</a> and <a href="http://secoma.co.jp" target="_blank">Secoma</a> which are targets for the Big Three.
The key operational and strategic themes relevant to investors in CVS in Japan:
<ul class="">
<li>The Japanese convenience store sector may have reached saturation but this has just encouraged the top three operators to speed up their quest to take over the remaining smaller chains while pushing into regions where they have fewer stores.</li>
<li>At the same time, all are looking at new forms of retailing to expand further:
<ul>
<li>All of the top three had previously failed to come up with coherent e-commerce strategies, but this year Seven Eleven and Lawson have launched new ideas that make better use of their existing store networks and could reach national coverage quite soon.</li>
<li>Diversification is another strategy to overcome saturation, and Familymart, in particular, is tying with all manner of partners to try and come up with a hit hybrid format to find new growth.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>While competition from drugstores and discount food retailers is a threat, convenience stores will continue to find new sources of growth from e-commerce, hybrid stores and innovative products.</li>
</ul>
This first report reviews the sector overall and the main players, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seven-eleven-familymart-and-lawson-find-new-growth-strategies-in-tighter-market" target="_blank">while a second report looks at the big three CVS operators – which have a combined 91% share of the market – in detail</a>.

The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese convenience store (CVS) sector and, in particular, the top three players, Seven Eleven (Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)), Familymart (8028 JP) and Lawson Inc (2651 JP). Also covered are the smaller firms like Ministop Co Ltd (9946 JP), Poplar Co Ltd (7601 JP), Daily Yamazaki, Cvs Bay Area (2687 JP), Three F Co Ltd (7544 JP) and Secoma which are targets for the Big Three.
The key operational and strategic themes relevant to investors in CVS in Japan:

The Japanese convenience store sector may have reached saturation but this has just encouraged the top three operators to speed up their quest to take over the remaining smaller chains while pushing into regions where they have fewer stores.
At the same time, all are looking at new forms of retailing to expand further:

All of the top three had previously failed to come up with coherent e-commerce strategies, but this year Seven Eleven and Lawson have launched new ideas that make better use of their existing store networks and could reach national coverage quite soon.
Diversification is another strategy to overcome saturation, and Familymart, in particular, is tying with all manner of partners to try and come up with a hit hybrid format to find new growth.


While competition from drugstores and discount food retailers is a threat, convenience stores will continue to find new sources of growth from e-commerce, hybrid stores and innovative products.

This first report reviews the sector overall and the main players, while a second report looks at the big three CVS operators – which have a combined 91% share of the market – in detail.

Japan Convenience Stores Still Innovating in a Saturated Market

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ NIKKEI/MXAP: Long term out performance in progress. ⦁ HSI/MXAP: Long term out performance in progress/still expected. ⦁ HSCEI/MXAP: Bullish weekly indicators advocate for long term HSCEI out performance against MXAP. ⦁ ASX/MXAP: ASX out performance challenged but not invalidated (testing key support at 26.00/25.50). ⦁ KOSPI/MXAP: Long term out performance still expected. ⦁ Nifty/MXAP: Mixed elements. Neutral for now. ⦁ TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely key level at (2.22 on ratio TWSE/MXAP) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term out performance vs MXAP Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ Downgrade Australia and Korea tactically from "Increase Exposure" to "Hold" due to mixed elements. ⦁ Ratings unchanged for the rest: Japan, Hong Kong (HSI) maintain their "Increase Exposure" ratings while still a "Hold" rating for Taiwan, India and China (HSCEI). ⦁ On the RV HSCEI/MXAP, still monitoring 8.50 level to break to confirm China (HSCEI) out performance.Should you have any questions and wish to speak with one of our analysts, please don’t hesitate to contact us. Equity Asia: + (65) 6735 3040 or <a href="mailto:asia@bbsp.sg" target="_blank">asia@bbsp.sg</a> Access to this document is restricted to the use of the intended recipient designated by BBSP and may not be shared with others. Any unauthorised use, dissemination, distribution or copying of this document, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited. This document is provided solely for information purposes. Under no circumstances is the information contained or referred to herein to be relied upon as constituting personal investment advice or construed as any offer or solicitation to buy or sell investments. While all reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. BBSP does not undertake any obligation to update such information. All content, data, statements and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy, are subject to change without notice, and should never prevent investors from using their own judgments. Investors are fully responsible for any investment or trading decisions they make.

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ NIKKEI/MXAP: Long term out performance in progress. ⦁ HSI/MXAP: Long term out performance in progress/still expected. ⦁ HSCEI/MXAP: Bullish weekly indicators advocate for long term HSCEI out performance against MXAP. ⦁ ASX/MXAP: ASX out performance challenged but not invalidated (testing key support at 26.00/25.50). ⦁ KOSPI/MXAP: Long term out performance still expected. ⦁ Nifty/MXAP: Mixed elements. Neutral for now. ⦁ TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely key level at (2.22 on ratio TWSE/MXAP) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term out performance vs MXAP Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ Downgrade Australia and Korea tactically from "Increase Exposure" to "Hold" due to mixed elements. ⦁ Ratings unchanged for the rest: Japan, Hong Kong (HSI) maintain their "Increase Exposure" ratings while still a "Hold" rating for Taiwan, India and China (HSCEI). ⦁ On the RV HSCEI/MXAP, still monitoring 8.50 level to break to confirm China (HSCEI) out performance.Should you have any questions and wish to speak with one of our analysts, please don’t hesitate to contact us. Equity Asia: + (65) 6735 3040 or asia@bbsp.sg Access to this document is restricted to the use of the intended recipient designated by BBSP and may not be shared with others. Any unauthorised use, dissemination, distribution or copying of this document, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited. This document is provided solely for information purposes. Under no circumstances is the information contained or referred to herein to be relied upon as constituting personal investment advice or construed as any offer or solicitation to buy or sell investments. While all reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. BBSP does not undertake any obligation to update such information. All content, data, statements and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy, are subject to change without notice, and should never prevent investors from using their own judgments. Investors are fully responsible for any investment or trading decisions they make.

Japan

YAMAZAKI BAKING CO., LTD. produces baking foods including bread, pastry, and cake.  The Company operates nationwide sales network.  YAMAZAKI BAKING also operates franchised cafeterias and convenience stores.

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Yamazaki Baking (2212 JP)

Higher Prices to Test Japan's Appetite for Wheat

Wheat production from Ukraine and Russia will be severely impact for the remainder of this year. Prices are set to remain higher for longer,...

Mark Chadwick

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

THREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 14th February ▲2212 4927 8358 ▼ 6502 6098 9435

14TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - With apologies to Trend Micro (4704 JP) and Bridgestone (5108 JP) who have yet to report, this will be our last daily...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Convenience Stores Still Innovating in a Saturated Market

The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese convenience store (CVS) sector and, in particular, the top three players, Seven Eleven (Seven...

Michael Causton

Equity Asia Weekly Research - 3 Oct 2018

THE MAIN IDEA(Relative Value Approach in USD Terms)Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms⦁ NIKKEI/MXAP: Long...

BBSP Asia

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