External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Yancoal’s (YAL) 3Q24 operating data are slightly better than our expectation, with attributable production / sales volume increasing 10%/21% YoY (improved from -4%/+1% in 2Q24).</li><li>Blended ASP dropped 14% YoY in 3Q24, which is largely in line with the market trend.</li><li>We estimate Yancoal delivered ~A$1.78bn of revenue in 3Q24 (+5% YoY; +15% QoQ). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal’s (YAL) 3Q24 operating data are slightly better than our expectation, with attributable production / sales volume increasing 10%/21% YoY (improved from -4%/+1% in 2Q24).Blended ASP dropped 14% YoY in 3Q24, which is largely in line with the market trend.We estimate Yancoal delivered ~A$1.78bn of revenue in 3Q24 (+5% YoY; +15% QoQ). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - 3Q24 Sales Volume Accelerated to +21% YoY

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

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<li>ETF flows in the Asian region continued their positive momentum during August with Southbound Connect positive again for the week.</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stella-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7610:1" rel="noopener">Stella International (1836 HK)</a> will increase its dividends and buybacks after positive earnings surprise. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a> saw a surge in new policies from mainlanders in HK.
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holding-ltd-b751749a-8feb-4b4d-85a7-d99ac0308fe7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40067:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holding (6623 HK)</a> reported an earnings miss with declining loan volume. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a> reported a decline of 57% in earnings which was below analysts' estimates.
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</ul>


ETF flows in the Asian region continued their positive momentum during August with Southbound Connect positive again for the week.

Stella International (1836 HK) will increase its dividends and buybacks after positive earnings surprise. AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) saw a surge in new policies from mainlanders in HK.


Lufax Holding (6623 HK) reported an earnings miss with declining loan volume. Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) reported a decline of 57% in earnings which was below analysts' estimates.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 26)

<ul><li>Yancoal’s (YAL) net profit came in at A$420mn in 1H24 (-57% YoY) which is slightly below our expectation due to higher-than-expected unit cost.</li><li>Unlike that in 2022 and 2023, YAL did not propose interim dividend this time despite a strong net cash position (A$1.42bn as at end-Jun).</li><li>Therefore, we do not rule out the possibility that YAL is getting closer to a potential M&amp;A deal to boost product diversification and long-term growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal’s (YAL) net profit came in at A$420mn in 1H24 (-57% YoY) which is slightly below our expectation due to higher-than-expected unit cost.Unlike that in 2022 and 2023, YAL did not propose interim dividend this time despite a strong net cash position (A$1.42bn as at end-Jun).Therefore, we do not rule out the possibility that YAL is getting closer to a potential M&amp;A deal to boost product diversification and long-term growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - 1H24 Net Profit -57% YoY Below Expectations

<ul><li>Yancoal’s (YAL) 2Q24 operating data came in slightly below our expectation, with only 1% YoY increase in attributable sales volume due to adverse weather conditions and operational factors such as longwall move and wash plant throughput rates.</li><li>Blended ASP dropped 20% YoY in 2Q24 but is in line with the market trend and our expectation.</li><li>We estimate Yancoal delivered ~A$1.5bn of revenue in 2Q24 (-20% YoY; +3% QoQ). YAL maintains the full-year sales volume guidance unchanged. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal’s (YAL) 2Q24 operating data came in slightly below our expectation, with only 1% YoY increase in attributable sales volume due to adverse weather conditions and operational factors such as longwall move and wash plant throughput rates.Blended ASP dropped 20% YoY in 2Q24 but is in line with the market trend and our expectation.We estimate Yancoal delivered ~A$1.5bn of revenue in 2Q24 (-20% YoY; +3% QoQ). YAL maintains the full-year sales volume guidance unchanged. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - 2Q24 Sales Volume +1%; Full-Year Target Still Achievable

<ul><li>We believe the suspension of Grosvenor metallurgical coal mine (owned by Anglo American [AAL LN, NR]) in Queensland, Australia, following the underground fire in late Jun, would last for several months.</li><li>We estimate the suspension will result in ~0.8% reduction of global metallurgical coal export volume, which will likely translate into higher met coal price and serve as a positive catalyst for Yancoal (YAL).</li><li>We expect higher spot prices will boost YAL’s ASP in both 2H24E and 1H25E when some contracts are to be repriced over the coming months. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe the suspension of Grosvenor metallurgical coal mine (owned by Anglo American [AAL LN, NR]) in Queensland, Australia, following the underground fire in late Jun, would last for several months.We estimate the suspension will result in ~0.8% reduction of global metallurgical coal export volume, which will likely translate into higher met coal price and serve as a positive catalyst for Yancoal (YAL).We expect higher spot prices will boost YAL’s ASP in both 2H24E and 1H25E when some contracts are to be repriced over the coming months. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - Higher Coal Price Assumptions After the Fire Incident

Australia

Yancoal Australia Limited provides coal mining services. The Company mines, processes, and sells pure-coal, metallurgical coal, and more. Yancoal Australia also exports its products.

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Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)