Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Indexes has started a consultation on the eligibility of Foreign Companies in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, a review of the seven Industry Groups and number of HK constituents.</li>
<li>We agree that foreign companies should be added to the index, no change needed to the Industry Groups, and the cap on the number of HK constituents should be removed.</li>
<li>There are a few potential adds due to the removal of the cap on HK companies, while there are potential foreign company additions later this year or in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Indexes has started a consultation on the eligibility of Foreign Companies in the Hang Seng Index, a review of the seven Industry Groups and number of HK constituents.
We agree that foreign companies should be added to the index, no change needed to the Industry Groups, and the cap on the number of HK constituents should be removed.
There are a few potential adds due to the removal of the cap on HK companies, while there are potential foreign company additions later this year or in 2024.


HSI Market Consultation: Foreign Companies, Industry Groups, HK Companies

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Yancoal’s ASP of A$347/t (+35% YoY) in 1Q23 is better than our expectation, which helped mitigate the 24% YoY decline in sales volume.</li><li>We estimate Yancoal delivered ~A$2bn of revenue (+1.8% YoY). Going forward, we expect sequential improvement in production volume as the water storage issue as a result of rainfall will be gradually improved.</li><li>We have left our earnings forecast unchanged and maintain our BUY rating with NPV-based TP of HK$48. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal’s ASP of A$347/t (+35% YoY) in 1Q23 is better than our expectation, which helped mitigate the 24% YoY decline in sales volume.We estimate Yancoal delivered ~A$2bn of revenue (+1.8% YoY). Going forward, we expect sequential improvement in production volume as the water storage issue as a result of rainfall will be gradually improved.We have left our earnings forecast unchanged and maintain our BUY rating with NPV-based TP of HK$48. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) – ASP Offset the Decline in Sales Volume in 1Q23

<ul><li>We hosted NDR for Yancoal (“YAL”) in Hong Kong last week.</li><li>We saw rising investors’ interest in YAL. Key topics included dividend policy, Stock Connect, coal price expectation and cost trend.</li><li>In our view, management provided clear answers to the questions during the meetings. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hosted NDR for Yancoal (“YAL”) in Hong Kong last week.We saw rising investors’ interest in YAL. Key topics included dividend policy, Stock Connect, coal price expectation and cost trend.In our view, management provided clear answers to the questions during the meetings. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) – Inclusion in Stock Connect a re-rating driver

<ul><li>YAL’s reported net profit in 2022 came in A$3.6bn, up 3.5x YoY but still 20% below our forecast.</li><li>The miss was due to a higher-than-expected unit cost and a one-off unwind of discount recognised (A$279mn) due to early repayment of debt.</li><li>Stripping out the one-off item, the net profit would be A$3.87bn (only 14% below our forecast). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

YAL’s reported net profit in 2022 came in A$3.6bn, up 3.5x YoY but still 20% below our forecast.The miss was due to a higher-than-expected unit cost and a one-off unwind of discount recognised (A$279mn) due to early repayment of debt.Stripping out the one-off item, the net profit would be A$3.87bn (only 14% below our forecast). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) – Net Profit +3.5x YoY in 2022 but Below Expectations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.</li>
<li>We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

Australia

Yancoal Australia Limited provides coal mining services. The Company mines, processes, and sells pure-coal, metallurgical coal, and more. Yancoal Australia also exports its products.

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Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)

HSI Market Consultation: Foreign Companies, Industry Groups, HK Companies

The conclusions of the market consultation have been announced. Primary-listed foreign companies will be eligible for inclusion in the HSI and...

Brian Freitas