Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with wide premia trades seeing Hs perform the best vs their As.</li>
<li>To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile. Last week I recommended a HUGE trimming (30%) of the book.</li>
<li>Hindsight is 20:20. I should have kept them, but the book still produced 51bp of alpha for the week on top of the 35bp of H/A beta. </li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with wide premia trades seeing Hs perform the best vs their As.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile. Last week I recommended a HUGE trimming (30%) of the book.
Hindsight is 20:20. I should have kept them, but the book still produced 51bp of alpha for the week on top of the 35bp of H/A beta. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with narrow premia trades seeing Hs perform the best. </li>
<li>Warning signs are starting to flash on spreads. This week I have the biggest week of changes recommended that I have <em>ever</em> had. By a long ways.</li>
<li>This week threatens to be a very strange week geopolitically. Being smaller in crowded trades is probably a good thing.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with narrow premia trades seeing Hs perform the best. 
Warning signs are starting to flash on spreads. This week I have the biggest week of changes recommended that I have ever had. By a long ways.
This week threatens to be a very strange week geopolitically. Being smaller in crowded trades is probably a good thing.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Continue to Fall; Expect Widening

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.</li>
<li>With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.</li>
<li>The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.
With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.
The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the Hang Seng Index over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and outflows from Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and outflows from Meituan.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are 26 companies with dividend yields of over 9% in FY25 based on consensus forecasts. With the slowdown in the US rate cut, they look attractive this year.</li>
<li>The top 5 are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-new-university" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23626:1" rel="noopener">China New Higher Education (2001 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greentown-management-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28895:1" rel="noopener">GreenTown Management (9979 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lever-style-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35760:1" rel="noopener">Lever Style (1346 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paradise-entertainment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3437:1" rel="noopener">Paradise Entertainment (1180 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-textiles-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12638:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Textiles (1382 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Key risks are their small-cap nature, potential issues with corporate governance, and low earnings quality when compared with banks and telcos.</li>
</ul>


There are 26 companies with dividend yields of over 9% in FY25 based on consensus forecasts. With the slowdown in the US rate cut, they look attractive this year.
The top 5 are China New Higher Education (2001 HK), GreenTown Management (9979 HK), Lever Style (1346 HK), Paradise Entertainment (1180 HK), and Pacific Textiles (1382 HK). 
Key risks are their small-cap nature, potential issues with corporate governance, and low earnings quality when compared with banks and telcos.


China Strategy: What Are Some Other High Dividend Yield Options?

China

Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited operates coal businesses. The Company produces fine coal, blown coal, power coal, and coal chemical products. Yankuang Energy Group also conducts power generation, railway transport, machinery manufacturing, and heating businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia are down. AH Premia down low enough it seems further moves on narrow premia blue chips may need a policy move so playing curve torsion or...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Expect Widening

AH Premia are again at a 5yr low. Liquid Hs outperform illiquids with wider spreads. Trades are getting crowded. Biggest slew of recommendations in...

Travis Lundy

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

We highlight 9 potential inclusions to the HSI in March. Downward capping on Tencent and Alibaba gives the index committee an opportunity to add...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for January and highlighted flows for Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and Meituan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Strategy: What Are Some Other High Dividend Yield Options?

Lever Style, one of the top 5 high yield stocks, has issued a positive profit alert with US$16.4-17.4m for FY24, or 5-12% YoY growth. Given the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)