Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew by 15% YoY and operating margin improved YoY in 1Q22.</li>
<li>The authorities began to grant licenses and new games will be launched in China and overseas.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 25% and a price target at US$120. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew by 15% YoY and operating margin improved YoY in 1Q22.
The authorities began to grant licenses and new games will be launched in China and overseas.
We set an upside of 25% and a price target at US$120. Buy.


NetEase (9999 HK): Steady Without New Games in 1Q22 and New Games in Pipeline, Buy

<ul>
<li>NTES is exploring overseas market by starting studios and selling games.</li>
<li>We believe NTES has the experience in dealing with the license suspension for new games.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 48% for year end 2022.</li>
</ul>


NTES is exploring overseas market by starting studios and selling games.
We believe NTES has the experience in dealing with the license suspension for new games.
We believe the stock has an upside of 48% for year end 2022.


NetEase (NTES) Pre-Earnings: Exploring Overseas Market

<ul>
<li>Game revenue recovered due to the new game, “Harry Potter: Magic Awakened”.</li>
<li>Surprisingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/youdao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28315:1" rel="noopener">Youdao, Inc. (DAO US)</a> did not shrink under the pressure of new policy. </li>
<li>We believe both revenue growth and operating margin will rise in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Game revenue recovered due to the new game, “Harry Potter: Magic Awakened”.
Surprisingly, Youdao, Inc. (DAO US) did not shrink under the pressure of new policy. 
We believe both revenue growth and operating margin will rise in 2022.


NetEase (NTES): 3Q21, Magic Awakened by Harry Potter

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Following a period of exceptionally strong performance, driven by the stay-at-home culture during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Chinese online games market is again experiencing significant headwinds, not only from very tough comps but from a resurgence in regulatory pressure. Although this forms part of wider scrutiny on various facets of the Chinese tech industry (including online education, payment platforms, ridesharing, etc.) recent regulatory efforts have included a further tightening of regulation limiting youth gamers’ online access which has also now led to a delay in new games approvals. This is very similar to what we saw in 2018 when, after an exceptionally strong 2017 revenue growth period, the Chinese government stepped up regulatory scrutiny specifically targeting youth gamers which ultimately led to a suspension of new games approvals from March 2018 until December 2018. Given the material impact that recent regulatory approvals should have on revenue generation for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, in this insight, I analyse the potential for negative revenue growth surprises, and further sell-side earnings downgrades, by comparing the current situation to that faced in 2018.

Following a period of exceptionally strong performance, driven by the stay-at-home culture during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Chinese online games market is again experiencing significant headwinds, not only from very tough comps but from a resurgence in regulatory pressure. Although this forms part of wider scrutiny on various facets of the Chinese tech industry (including online education, payment platforms, ridesharing, etc.) recent regulatory efforts have included a further tightening of regulation limiting youth gamers’ online access which has also now led to a delay in new games approvals. This is very similar to what we saw in 2018 when, after an exceptionally strong 2017 revenue growth period, the Chinese government stepped up regulatory scrutiny specifically targeting youth gamers which ultimately led to a suspension of new games approvals from March 2018 until December 2018. Given the material impact that recent regulatory approvals should have on revenue generation for Tencent (700 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK), in this insight, I analyse the potential for negative revenue growth surprises, and further sell-side earnings downgrades, by comparing the current situation to that faced in 2018.

NetEase, Tencent: Risk of Negative Games Revenue Surprises Skewed to Tencent, Rather than NetEase

<ul>
<li>The lower growth rate in 2Q21 was due to the high comparison base last year.</li>
<li>The new rule of time limit is not a concern.</li>
<li>The pandemic will pull players back to their mobile phones.</li>
<li>Our concern is expense in minor businesses.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 7.6%.</li>
</ul>


The lower growth rate in 2Q21 was due to the high comparison base last year.
The new rule of time limit is not a concern.
The pandemic will pull players back to their mobile phones.
Our concern is expense in minor businesses.
We conclude an upside of 7.6%.


NetEase (NTES): Slower in 2Q21, But Do Not Short It

China

Youdao, Inc. develops and markets mobile internet applications. The Company provides language translation applications, personal cloud applications, e-commerce shopping applications, and other related products. Youdao also develops investment related applications.

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Youdao, Inc. (DAO US)

NetEase (9999 HK): Steady Without New Games in 1Q22 and New Games in Pipeline, Buy

Total revenue grew by 15% YoY and operating margin improved YoY in 1Q22. The authorities began to grant licenses and new games will be launched in...

Ming Lu

NetEase (NTES) Pre-Earnings: Exploring Overseas Market

NTES is exploring oversea market. We believe NTES has the experience in dealing with the license suspension for new games. We believe the stock has...

Ming Lu

NetEase (NTES): 3Q21, Magic Awakened by Harry Potter

The new game, “Harry Potter: Magic Awakened”, is successful. Surprisingly, Youdao did not shrink under the new policy. We believe both revenue...

Ming Lu

NetEase, Tencent: Risk of Negative Games Revenue Surprises Skewed to Tencent, Rather than NetEase

In this insight, I analyse the potential for negative revenue growth surprises, and further earnings downgrades, for NetEase and Tencent, by...

Wium Malan, CFA

NetEase (NTES): Slower in 2Q21, But Do Not Short It

The lower growth rate in 2Q21 was due to the high comparison base last year. The new rule of time limit is not a concern. The pandemic will pull...

Ming Lu

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52-week Range

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