Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.</li>
<li>MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View</li>
<li>Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.
MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View
Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View


<ul>
<li>Cemex 1Q25: Credit Strength Persists, but No Catalyst for Spread Compression</li>
<li>Pemex 1Q25: Upgraded to Market Perform, but Structural Risks Persist</li>
<li>YPF and Globant Sign Agreement to Modernize Supply Chain with AI</li>
</ul>


Cemex 1Q25: Credit Strength Persists, but No Catalyst for Spread Compression
Pemex 1Q25: Upgraded to Market Perform, but Structural Risks Persist
YPF and Globant Sign Agreement to Modernize Supply Chain with AI


<ul>
<li>Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms</li>
<li>Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports</li>
<li>Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms
Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports
Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth


<ul>
<li>4Q24 results: Minerva - acquisition outlook and market tailwinds support credit upgrade, YPF - strategic progress offset weak quarter, and Pemex - high carry but risk outweigh rewards. </li>
<li>Argentina 4Q24 GDP Beats Expectations, but Outlook Hinges on Policy and IMF Deal</li>
<li>Sheinbaum Restructures Pemex to Strengthen State Control - Pemex’s elevated leverage, continued E&amp;P underperformance, and exposure to refining losses remain key concerns.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 results: Minerva - acquisition outlook and market tailwinds support credit upgrade, YPF - strategic progress offset weak quarter, and Pemex - high carry but risk outweigh rewards. 
Argentina 4Q24 GDP Beats Expectations, but Outlook Hinges on Policy and IMF Deal
Sheinbaum Restructures Pemex to Strengthen State Control - Pemex’s elevated leverage, continued E&amp;P underperformance, and exposure to refining losses remain key concerns.


<ul>
<li>We maintain our Outperform recommendation on YPF. Shale Expansion, Export Capacity Growth Key to Long-Term Performance</li>
<li>YPF posted weak 4Q24 results. Adjusted EBITDA dropping 38.6% QoQ and 22.5% YoY to $839 million, missing consensus by 19.7%.</li>
<li>YPF reaffirmed confidence in its strategic execution, achieving key milestones in shale operations, mature fields divestments, and fuel pricing adjustments.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Outperform recommendation on YPF. Shale Expansion, Export Capacity Growth Key to Long-Term Performance
YPF posted weak 4Q24 results. Adjusted EBITDA dropping 38.6% QoQ and 22.5% YoY to $839 million, missing consensus by 19.7%.
YPF reaffirmed confidence in its strategic execution, achieving key milestones in shale operations, mature fields divestments, and fuel pricing adjustments.


YPF 4Q24: Macro Tailwinds and Strategic Progress Offset a Weak Quarter

Argentina

YPF Sociedad Anonima is involved in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company also refines, markets, and distributes oil alongside its derivatives YPF generates nearly all of its revenue inside Argentina, and has headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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YPF SA (YPF US)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Cemex and Pemex show credit strength in 1Q25, while YPF and Globant collaborate to modernize supply chain with AI. The LatAm Aggregate Index...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views – Mar 21, 2025

4Q24 results show Minerva improving, YPF progressing, but Pemex remains high risk. Argentina's GDP beat estimates, but outlook depends on policy...

Leandro Gubler

YPF 4Q24: Macro Tailwinds and Strategic Progress Offset a Weak Quarter

YPF's weak 4Q24 results show a drop in adjusted EBITDA, but the company remains confident in its strategic execution with focus on shale expansion...

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Cemex and Pemex show credit strength in 1Q25, while YPF and Globant collaborate to modernize supply chain with AI. The LatAm Aggregate Index...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views – Mar 21, 2025

4Q24 results show Minerva improving, YPF progressing, but Pemex remains high risk. Argentina's GDP beat estimates, but outlook depends on policy...

Leandro Gubler

YPF 4Q24: Macro Tailwinds and Strategic Progress Offset a Weak Quarter

​YPF's weak 4Q24 results show a drop in adjusted EBITDA, but the company remains confident in its strategic execution with focus on shale expansion...

Leandro Gubler

LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Cemex and Pemex show credit strength in 1Q25, while YPF and Globant collaborate to modernize supply chain with AI. The LatAm Aggregate Index...

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

YPF's weak 4Q24 results show a drop in adjusted EBITDA, but the company remains confident in its strategic execution with focus on shale expansion...