Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Overweight on YPF, supported by lower lifting costs, mature-field divestments, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin unconventional production and key midstream and export projects.</li>
<li>Improving macro conditions, stronger sovereign credit prospects, and reduced political risk post-elections should support investment, market access, and YPF’s medium-term credit profile.</li>
<li>At current spreads, we find the 2029s and 2031s most attractive, offering compelling yields with limited duration risk and trading wide to peers despite tighter historical averages.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Overweight on YPF, supported by lower lifting costs, mature-field divestments, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin unconventional production and key midstream and export projects.
Improving macro conditions, stronger sovereign credit prospects, and reduced political risk post-elections should support investment, market access, and YPF’s medium-term credit profile.
At current spreads, we find the 2029s and 2031s most attractive, offering compelling yields with limited duration risk and trading wide to peers despite tighter historical averages.


YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

<ul>
<li>LatAm credit markets ended the week mixed as the LatAm Aggregate Index widened to 280 bps while EM spreads and U.S. yields remained stable.</li>
<li>In 2Q25 earnings, Vista, Minerva, and YPF delivered strong results supporting Overweight views, while Suzano, Cemex, and Telecom face spread constraints amid operational pressures.</li>
<li>MercadoLibre’s growth remains solid but limited spread compression, and Pemex benefits from government support.</li>
</ul>


LatAm credit markets ended the week mixed as the LatAm Aggregate Index widened to 280 bps while EM spreads and U.S. yields remained stable.
In 2Q25 earnings, Vista, Minerva, and YPF delivered strong results supporting Overweight views, while Suzano, Cemex, and Telecom face spread constraints amid operational pressures.
MercadoLibre’s growth remains solid but limited spread compression, and Pemex benefits from government support.


Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Corporate Index widened by 4 bps to 317 bps in the week ended Wednesday, January 15, 2025. </li>
<li>YPF Priced $1.1bn Bond Due 2034 at 8.5% Yield. PEMEX Commits to Settling Supplier Debts by March</li>
<li>Moody’s Upgrades Ratings of Argentine Non-Financial Companies Following Country Ceiling Adjustment</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Corporate Index widened by 4 bps to 317 bps in the week ended Wednesday, January 15, 2025. 
YPF Priced $1.1bn Bond Due 2034 at 8.5% Yield. PEMEX Commits to Settling Supplier Debts by March
Moody’s Upgrades Ratings of Argentine Non-Financial Companies Following Country Ceiling Adjustment


<ul>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.</li>
<li>MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View</li>
<li>Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.
MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View
Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View


<ul>
<li>We maintain our Outperform recommendation on YPF. Shale Expansion, Export Capacity Growth Key to Long-Term Performance</li>
<li>YPF posted weak 4Q24 results. Adjusted EBITDA dropping 38.6% QoQ and 22.5% YoY to $839 million, missing consensus by 19.7%.</li>
<li>YPF reaffirmed confidence in its strategic execution, achieving key milestones in shale operations, mature fields divestments, and fuel pricing adjustments.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Outperform recommendation on YPF. Shale Expansion, Export Capacity Growth Key to Long-Term Performance
YPF posted weak 4Q24 results. Adjusted EBITDA dropping 38.6% QoQ and 22.5% YoY to $839 million, missing consensus by 19.7%.
YPF reaffirmed confidence in its strategic execution, achieving key milestones in shale operations, mature fields divestments, and fuel pricing adjustments.


YPF 4Q24: Macro Tailwinds and Strategic Progress Offset a Weak Quarter

Argentina

YPF Sociedad Anonima is involved in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company also refines, markets, and distributes oil alongside its derivatives YPF generates nearly all of its revenue inside Argentina, and has headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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YPF SA (YPF US)

YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

Shale growth, lower lifting costs, and reduced political risk strengthen YPF’s credit story. A must-read for investors seeking value in short...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

LatAm Corporate Index widens, YPF prices $1.1bn bond, PEMEX commits to settling debts, Moody's upgrades Argentine companies.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Leandro Gubler

YPF 4Q24: Macro Tailwinds and Strategic Progress Offset a Weak Quarter

YPF's weak 4Q24 results show a drop in adjusted EBITDA, but the company remains confident in its strategic execution with focus on shale expansion...

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

Shale growth, lower lifting costs, and reduced political risk strengthen YPF’s credit story. A must-read for investors seeking value in short...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

​LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Corporate Index widens, YPF prices $1.1bn bond, PEMEX commits to settling debts, Moody's upgrades Argentine companies.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Leandro Gubler

YPF 4Q24: Macro Tailwinds and Strategic Progress Offset a Weak Quarter

​YPF's weak 4Q24 results show a drop in adjusted EBITDA, but the company remains confident in its strategic execution with focus on shale expansion...

Leandro Gubler

LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

LatAm Corporate Index widens, YPF prices $1.1bn bond, PEMEX commits to settling debts, Moody's upgrades Argentine companies.

LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

YPF's weak 4Q24 results show a drop in adjusted EBITDA, but the company remains confident in its strategic execution with focus on shale expansion...