Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

YPF 4Q25: Downstream Strength and Shale Scale Offset Price Headwinds

YPF 1Q26: Shale Is Working, Spreads Are Not Waiting

YPF 2Q26: From Transformation to Execution

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Refinancing risk falls: YPF’s enlarged US$1.0bn tender can retire all targeted 2027s and roughly half the 2029s, materially reducing near-term maturities.</li>
<li>Credit impact stays manageable: The transaction adds only modest leverage, while improved market access and a cleaner maturity profile strengthen liquidity ahead of the 2027 election.</li>
<li>Value is selective: We remain Neutral on YPF as curve dislocations create bond-specific opportunity, but not enough broad valuation support to justify an issuer-level upgrade.</li>
</ul>


Refinancing risk falls: YPF’s enlarged US$1.0bn tender can retire all targeted 2027s and roughly half the 2029s, materially reducing near-term maturities.
Credit impact stays manageable: The transaction adds only modest leverage, while improved market access and a cleaner maturity profile strengthen liquidity ahead of the 2027 election.
Value is selective: We remain Neutral on YPF as curve dislocations create bond-specific opportunity, but not enough broad valuation support to justify an issuer-level upgrade.


YPF Prices US$1.2bn 7.550% 2035s and Doubles Tender Cap to US$1.0bn

YPF SA

YPF Prices US$1.2bn 7.550% 2035s and Doubles Tender Cap to US$1.0bn