Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

YPF 2Q26: From Transformation to Execution

YPF Prices US$1.2bn 7.550% 2035s and Doubles Tender Cap to US$1.0bn

YPF Prices US$550m 8.250% 2034 Tap at 8.1%

YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

YPF 4Q25: Downstream Strength and Shale Scale Offset Price Headwinds

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Key Outcome: YPF’s shale transition is strengthening credit resilience, with 1Q26 EBITDA up 28.1% YoY, leverage down to 2.01x, and lifting costs at $8.8/boe.</li>
<li>Risk/Volatility: Valuation now requires more discipline after the rally, with YPF already trading materially inside Argentina sovereign risk and political-cycle volatility still relevant.</li>
<li>Valuation Driver: We still prefer the 8.250% 2034s as the best belly expression, while long-end extension offers insufficient spread pickup for the added duration.</li>
</ul>


Key Outcome: YPF’s shale transition is strengthening credit resilience, with 1Q26 EBITDA up 28.1% YoY, leverage down to 2.01x, and lifting costs at $8.8/boe.
Risk/Volatility: Valuation now requires more discipline after the rally, with YPF already trading materially inside Argentina sovereign risk and political-cycle volatility still relevant.
Valuation Driver: We still prefer the 8.250% 2034s as the best belly expression, while long-end extension offers insufficient spread pickup for the added duration.


YPF 1Q26: Shale Is Working, Spreads Are Not Waiting

YPF SA

YPF 1Q26: Shale Is Working, Spreads Are Not Waiting