Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

YPF 4Q25: Downstream Strength and Shale Scale Offset Price Headwinds

YPF 1Q26: Shale Is Working, Spreads Are Not Waiting

YPF 2Q26: From Transformation to Execution

YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

Initiating Coverage on YPF: Outperform Opportunity Amid Macro and Shale Expansion

Initiating Coverage on Pemex: Set to Outperform on Reclassification Potential

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Refinancing Pressure Eases: YPF successfully priced a US$550m tap of 2034 notes at 8.1%, reinforcing international market access and proactively managing debt maturities into the next decade.</li>
<li>
Strategic Asset Rationalization: Divesting US$575m in conventional assets accelerates the shift toward high-margin Vaca Muerta shale production, structurally improving the cost base despite near-term free cash flow constraints.</li>
<li>
Duration Risk Management: While credit execution is strong, political risks ahead of the 2027 elections make shorter-dated 2031 bonds a more efficient risk-adjusted expression of an Overweight stance.</li>
</ul>



Refinancing Pressure Eases: YPF successfully priced a US$550m tap of 2034 notes at 8.1%, reinforcing international market access and proactively managing debt maturities into the next decade.

Strategic Asset Rationalization: Divesting US$575m in conventional assets accelerates the shift toward high-margin Vaca Muerta shale production, structurally improving the cost base despite near-term free cash flow constraints.

Duration Risk Management: While credit execution is strong, political risks ahead of the 2027 elections make shorter-dated 2031 bonds a more efficient risk-adjusted expression of an Overweight stance.


YPF Prices US$550m 8.250% 2034 Tap at 8.1%

YPF SA

YPF Prices US$550m 8.250% 2034 Tap at 8.1%