Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

YPF 1Q26: Shale Is Working, Spreads Are Not Waiting

YPF 2Q26: From Transformation to Execution

YPF Prices US$1.2bn 7.550% 2035s and Doubles Tender Cap to US$1.0bn

YPF Prices US$550m 8.250% 2034 Tap at 8.1%

YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

Initiating Coverage on YPF: Outperform Opportunity Amid Macro and Shale Expansion

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Structural Asset Transformation: YPF is successfully pivoting to a high-margin shale-weighted portfolio, driving a 53% YoY EBITDA surge and 44% reduction in lifting costs despite weaker global commodity prices.</li>
<li>
Persistent Liquidity Constraints: Despite robust market access and strategic divestments, short-term debt remains high at 197% of cash, with $2.1 billion in 2026 maturities requiring disciplined refinancing execution.</li>
<li>
Sovereign Risk Overlay: Improving credit fundamentals remain capped by Argentina’s macro volatility; investors should prioritize "belly" curve exposure (2034s) for superior convexity and protection against 2027 political cycles.</li>
</ul>



Structural Asset Transformation: YPF is successfully pivoting to a high-margin shale-weighted portfolio, driving a 53% YoY EBITDA surge and 44% reduction in lifting costs despite weaker global commodity prices.

Persistent Liquidity Constraints: Despite robust market access and strategic divestments, short-term debt remains high at 197% of cash, with $2.1 billion in 2026 maturities requiring disciplined refinancing execution.

Sovereign Risk Overlay: Improving credit fundamentals remain capped by Argentina’s macro volatility; investors should prioritize "belly" curve exposure (2034s) for superior convexity and protection against 2027 political cycles.


YPF 4Q25: Downstream Strength and Shale Scale Offset Price Headwinds

YPF SA

YPF 4Q25: Downstream Strength and Shale Scale Offset Price Headwinds