Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Initiating Coverage on YPF: Outperform Opportunity Amid Macro and Shale Expansion

Initiating Coverage on Pemex: Set to Outperform on Reclassification Potential

Minerva: Balancing an Interesting Credit Story with Acquisition Risks

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Overweight on YPF, supported by lower lifting costs, mature-field divestments, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin unconventional production and key midstream and export projects.</li>
<li>Improving macro conditions, stronger sovereign credit prospects, and reduced political risk post-elections should support investment, market access, and YPF’s medium-term credit profile.</li>
<li>At current spreads, we find the 2029s and 2031s most attractive, offering compelling yields with limited duration risk and trading wide to peers despite tighter historical averages.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Overweight on YPF, supported by lower lifting costs, mature-field divestments, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin unconventional production and key midstream and export projects.
Improving macro conditions, stronger sovereign credit prospects, and reduced political risk post-elections should support investment, market access, and YPF’s medium-term credit profile.
At current spreads, we find the 2029s and 2031s most attractive, offering compelling yields with limited duration risk and trading wide to peers despite tighter historical averages.


YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

YPF SA

YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base