Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We continue to prefer Vista for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector. We believe stronger operational performance and a reduction in country risk could drive bond outperformance.</li>
<li>P1 reserves grew by 56.7 MMboe, or 17.8% YoY, to 375.2 MMboe, resulting in a reserves replacement ratio of 323% and a reserve life of 14.7 years.</li>
<li>Total production increased 17.1% QoQ to 85.3 kbpd in 4Q24, up from 72.8 kbpd in 3Q24. This growth was primarily driven by a 15.7% sequential increase in crude oil production. </li>
</ul>


We continue to prefer Vista for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector. We believe stronger operational performance and a reduction in country risk could drive bond outperformance.
P1 reserves grew by 56.7 MMboe, or 17.8% YoY, to 375.2 MMboe, resulting in a reserves replacement ratio of 323% and a reserve life of 14.7 years.
Total production increased 17.1% QoQ to 85.3 kbpd in 4Q24, up from 72.8 kbpd in 3Q24. This growth was primarily driven by a 15.7% sequential increase in crude oil production. 


Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted modestly by 1 bps to 307 bps in the week ending Friday, February 14, 2025.</li>
<li>Argentina's inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in January, the lowest monthly figure in 4.5 years, according to INDEC.</li>
<li>We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted modestly by 1 bps to 307 bps in the week ending Friday, February 14, 2025.
Argentina's inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in January, the lowest monthly figure in 4.5 years, according to INDEC.
We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.


Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 12 basis points (bps) to 306 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 31, 2025.</li>
<li>U.S. Treasuries saw decreases, with the 10-year yield down 11 bps to 4.51% and the 5-year yield also down 11 bps to 4.31%.</li>
<li>We initiated coverage on Suzano with a Market Perform outlook, Sheinbaum unveiled an energy reform, YPF completed its $327 million acquisition of Mobil, and Cemex finalized its $950 million divestment. </li>
</ul>


The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 12 basis points (bps) to 306 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 31, 2025.
U.S. Treasuries saw decreases, with the 10-year yield down 11 bps to 4.51% and the 5-year yield also down 11 bps to 4.31%.
We initiated coverage on Suzano with a Market Perform outlook, Sheinbaum unveiled an energy reform, YPF completed its $327 million acquisition of Mobil, and Cemex finalized its $950 million divestment. 


<ul>
<li>The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points (bps) to 319 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 24, 2025.</li>
<li>U.S. Treasuries saw modest increases, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.64% and the 5-year yield also up 2 bps to 4.45%.</li>
<li>Cemex – Mexico Construction Key Indicators, YPF/Vista - Shale Boom Drives Argentina’s Energy Trade Surplus.</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points (bps) to 319 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 24, 2025.
U.S. Treasuries saw modest increases, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.64% and the 5-year yield also up 2 bps to 4.45%.
Cemex – Mexico Construction Key Indicators, YPF/Vista - Shale Boom Drives Argentina’s Energy Trade Surplus.


<ul>
<li>We recommend to “BUY” on the new YPFAR 2034 at 8.5%</li>
<li>We believe these bonds offer an appealing yield within YPF’s debt capital structure and are currently trading wide relative to the broader LatAm BB and EM BB curves</li>
<li>Pricing is expected today, with initial price talk around 8.75%, and now guided at 8.5%.</li>
</ul>


We recommend to “BUY” on the new YPFAR 2034 at 8.5%
We believe these bonds offer an appealing yield within YPF’s debt capital structure and are currently trading wide relative to the broader LatAm BB and EM BB curves
Pricing is expected today, with initial price talk around 8.75%, and now guided at 8.5%.


YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)

Argentina

YPF Sociedad Anonima is involved in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company also refines, markets, and distributes oil alongside its derivatives YPF generates nearly all of its revenue inside Argentina, and has headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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YPF SA (YPF US)

Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries decrease, key market updates include Suzano, Sheinbaum's energy reform, YPF acquisition, and Cemex...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

Leandro Gubler

YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)

"Recommend buying YPFAR 2034 bonds at 8.5% yield due to attractive pricing and wide trading spread compared to LatAm and EM BB curves."

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

​Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

​LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries decrease, key market updates include Suzano, Sheinbaum's energy reform, YPF acquisition, and Cemex...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

Leandro Gubler

YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)

​"Recommend buying YPFAR 2034 bonds at 8.5% yield due to attractive pricing and wide trading spread compared to LatAm and EM BB curves."

Leandro Gubler

Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries decrease, key market updates include Suzano, Sheinbaum's energy reform, YPF acquisition, and Cemex...

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

"Recommend buying YPFAR 2034 bonds at 8.5% yield due to attractive pricing and wide trading spread compared to LatAm and EM BB curves."