Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Hive Box Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A change in depreciation policy boosted reported profits in Jan-May 2024</li>
<li>But Adjusted EBITDA margins have declined consistently in recent periods</li>
<li>Among our growing list of questions: why hasn't Hive Box grown faster?</li>
</ul>


A change in depreciation policy boosted reported profits in Jan-May 2024
But Adjusted EBITDA margins have declined consistently in recent periods
Among our growing list of questions: why hasn't Hive Box grown faster?


Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 2: Segments, P&L, Balance Sheet & CF, Key Drivers, & More Questions

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese parcel volume growth slowed in July (+22%) vs firmer pace in Q2 (+32%)</li>
<li>At company level, there are signs the steep price declines from H1 are moderating</li>
<li>If worst of price declines is in rearview mirror, beat down names are worth a look</li>
</ul>


Chinese parcel volume growth slowed in July (+22%) vs firmer pace in Q2 (+32%)
At company level, there are signs the steep price declines from H1 are moderating
If worst of price declines is in rearview mirror, beat down names are worth a look


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Volume Growth Eased | Price Declines Moderating (August 2024)

<ul>
<li>Headline numbers for ZTO in Q224 were +10% Revenue, +12% EBITDA</li>
<li>But gross margin in core express segment fell, as did Operating Cash Flow</li>
<li>ZTO left guidance unchanged for FY24; we recommend investors AVOID it</li>
</ul>


Headline numbers for ZTO in Q224 were +10% Revenue, +12% EBITDA
But gross margin in core express segment fell, as did Operating Cash Flow
ZTO left guidance unchanged for FY24; we recommend investors AVOID it


ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

<ul>
<li>Parcel volume growth remained strong in June, but ASPs weakened (again)</li>
<li>YTO Express seems to be managing price / volume tradeoff competently</li>
<li>Year-To-Date, only YTO shares up &gt; 10%; three companies down -10% or more </li>
</ul>


Parcel volume growth remained strong in June, but ASPs weakened (again)
YTO Express seems to be managing price / volume tradeoff competently
Year-To-Date, only YTO shares up &gt; 10%; three companies down -10% or more 


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Strong June Volume | Weak Pricing and Intl | (July 2024)

<ul>
<li>Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace</li>
<li>Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels</li>
<li>HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID</li>
</ul>


Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace
Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels
HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID


J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

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YTO Express (600233 CH)

Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 2: Segments, P&L, Balance Sheet & CF, Key Drivers, & More Questions

When it comes to evaluating Hive Box's financial performance, a recent change in depreciation policy muddies the waters. But it's clear that core...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Volume Growth Eased | Price Declines Moderating (August 2024)

There are growing signs the worst of the steep unit price declines that have weighed down the Chinese express sector over the past year are now...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

ZTO's headline Q224 numbers look OK, but they don't paint an accurate picture of what's happening in the core express segment. We suggest investors...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Strong June Volume | Weak Pricing and Intl | (July 2024)

In June, China's express delivery sector again reported strong volume growth, but weak unit pricing. Share performance reflects this dynamic, with...

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J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Y/Y parcel volume growth at J&T Global Express in Q224 fell sharply compared to Q124's rate of growth, and the slowdown hit all three of the...

Tracking Traffic

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