Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>September &amp; Q324 data confirm slowing of domestic parcel volume growth</li>
<li>Y/Y ASP declines also moderated in Q324, which is beneficial to margins</li>
<li>Meanwhile, X-border parcel volume growth continued to surge last month</li>
</ul>


September &amp; Q324 data confirm slowing of domestic parcel volume growth
Y/Y ASP declines also moderated in Q324, which is beneficial to margins
Meanwhile, X-border parcel volume growth continued to surge last month


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Volume Growth & Price Declines Both Moderated | (October 2024)

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following a year of pure low-price competition, e-commerce platforms are shifting towards providing better services to customers - the major focus of this upgrade has been logistics. </li>
<li>This shift has has manifested through (1) the opening of Taobao/Tmall's merchant back-end to JD Logistics, (2) the resurgence of O2O, and (3) algorithm weighting tilt towards higher-scoring merchants.</li>
<li>Amid this shift we prefer JD Logistics (2618 HK) followed by ZTO (ZTO US). We are most negative towards S.F. Holding (002352 CH) followed by J&amp;T Express (1519 HK).</li>
</ul>


Following a year of pure low-price competition, e-commerce platforms are shifting towards providing better services to customers - the major focus of this upgrade has been logistics. 
This shift has has manifested through (1) the opening of Taobao/Tmall's merchant back-end to JD Logistics, (2) the resurgence of O2O, and (3) algorithm weighting tilt towards higher-scoring merchants.
Amid this shift we prefer JD Logistics (2618 HK) followed by ZTO (ZTO US). We are most negative towards S.F. Holding (002352 CH) followed by J&amp;T Express (1519 HK).


Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SF Holding proposes interim &amp; special dividends for owners of A-shares</li>
<li>Combined cash dividend totals 1.40 CNY per share, yielding about 3.3%</li>
<li>Meeting October 29 to approve dividends, Q3 results, planned HK listing</li>
</ul>


SF Holding proposes interim &amp; special dividends for owners of A-shares
Combined cash dividend totals 1.40 CNY per share, yielding about 3.3%
Meeting October 29 to approve dividends, Q3 results, planned HK listing


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Proposed Interim & Special Dividends of 1.40 CNY Per Share Ahead of HK Listing

<ul>
<li>Amid fierce low-price competition in 1H24, low-end couriers  benefited from merchant demand for cheap logistics. However, new platform policies suggest greater emphasis on quality logistics and O2O in 2H24;</li>
<li>The shift towards higher-end logistics is manifesting through O2O. Spearheaded by Meituan, O2O is an experiment to copy Coupang's business model in China. We believe there is a sizable market;</li>
<li>We see ZTO as best positioned amid the changing environment, JDL least impacted, with J&amp;T and SFE in the least favorable positions.</li>
</ul>


Amid fierce low-price competition in 1H24, low-end couriers  benefited from merchant demand for cheap logistics. However, new platform policies suggest greater emphasis on quality logistics and O2O in 2H24;
The shift towards higher-end logistics is manifesting through O2O. Spearheaded by Meituan, O2O is an experiment to copy Coupang's business model in China. We believe there is a sizable market;
We see ZTO as best positioned amid the changing environment, JDL least impacted, with J&amp;T and SFE in the least favorable positions.


Logistics Shift to Quality Amid Evolved Ecommerce Plans

<ul>
<li>August parcel volume growth moderated, but easing price pressure matters more</li>
<li>In July &amp; August, Chinese X-border parcel volume growth re-accelerated</li>
<li>We believe easing price pressure should lead to express margin expansion</li>
</ul>


August parcel volume growth moderated, but easing price pressure matters more
In July &amp; August, Chinese X-border parcel volume growth re-accelerated
We believe easing price pressure should lead to express margin expansion


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Price Pressures Ease | X-Border Re-Accelerates | (September 2024)

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

Price Gauge
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YTO Express (600233 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Volume Growth & Price Declines Both Moderated | (October 2024)

Parcel volume growth moderated for the express companies in Q3, but so did price declines. We expect the Chinese express companies to report...

Tracking Traffic

Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Logistics Shift to Quality Amid Evolved Ecommerce Plans

In 2H24, low-end couriers face shift towards quality logistics and O2O, with ZTO and Meituan best positioned and SFE most negatively affected

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Price Pressures Ease | X-Border Re-Accelerates | (September 2024)

Heavy price pressure from 2023 and the first half of 2024 has eased, which is positive for margins at all of the listed Chinese express companies....

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Volume Growth & Price Declines Both Moderated | (October 2024)

Parcel volume growth moderated for the express companies in Q3, but so did price declines. We expect the Chinese express companies to report...

Tracking Traffic

Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

​E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Proposed Interim & Special Dividends of 1.40 CNY Per Share Ahead of HK Listing

China's leading express company, SF Holding, has announced interim and special dividends to be paid to existing shareholders ahead of a planned...

Tracking Traffic

Logistics Shift to Quality Amid Evolved Ecommerce Plans

​In 2H24, low-end couriers face shift towards quality logistics and O2O, with ZTO and Meituan best positioned and SFE most negatively affected

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Price Pressures Ease | X-Border Re-Accelerates | (September 2024)

Heavy price pressure from 2023 and the first half of 2024 has eased, which is positive for margins at all of the listed Chinese express companies....

Tracking Traffic

E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...

In 2H24, low-end couriers face shift towards quality logistics and O2O, with ZTO and Meituan best positioned and SFE most negatively affected