Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SF's revenue base is far larger, and in Q324 SF's revenue also grew faster than JD Logistics</li>
<li>SF and JD Log reported similar EBITDA margins in Q324, &amp; both enjoyed Y/Y improvement</li>
<li>JD Log appears far cheaper on EV/Revenue, perhaps due to its reliance on parent JD.com</li>
</ul>


SF's revenue base is far larger, and in Q324 SF's revenue also grew faster than JD Logistics
SF and JD Log reported similar EBITDA margins in Q324, &amp; both enjoyed Y/Y improvement
JD Log appears far cheaper on EV/Revenue, perhaps due to its reliance on parent JD.com


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Head-To-Head Comparison of SF Holding & JD Logistics

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>, China’s largest express delivery company, raised around US$860m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.</li>
<li>We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH), China’s largest express delivery company, raised around US$860m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


SF Holdings A/H Trading - Strong Demand but Is Probably Close to Fair Value

<ul>
<li>October volume firmed, but price data is mixed; X-border activity trended stronger</li>
<li>ZTO's shares sagged after it reported weaker Q324 margins &amp; lowered FY24 guidance</li>
<li>Market leader SF Holding's long-awaited HK IPO should price &amp; begin trading this week</li>
</ul>


October volume firmed, but price data is mixed; X-border activity trended stronger
ZTO's shares sagged after it reported weaker Q324 margins &amp; lowered FY24 guidance
Market leader SF Holding's long-awaited HK IPO should price &amp; begin trading this week


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | October Volume Firmed | ZTO Disappoints | SF HK IPO This Week

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).</li>
<li>The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.</li>
</ul>


Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).
The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.
Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.


SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

<ul>
<li>Going into FY24, ZTO aimed to focus on price,  cede volume share in support of margins</li>
<li>It hasn't worked: in Q324, adj EBITDA margin fell -290 bps Y/Y despite higher ASPs</li>
<li>Q324 results reveal weak earnngs growth, &amp; reduced FY24 volume target; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Going into FY24, ZTO aimed to focus on price,  cede volume share in support of margins
It hasn't worked: in Q324, adj EBITDA margin fell -290 bps Y/Y despite higher ASPs
Q324 results reveal weak earnngs growth, &amp; reduced FY24 volume target; AVOID


ZTO Express Q324 Results: Shift in Strategy Leads to Lower Core Margins & FY24 Guidance Cut | AVOID

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

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YTO Express (600233 CH)

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Head-To-Head Comparison of SF Holding & JD Logistics

We offer a head-to-head comparison of SF Holding and JD Logistics, direct competitors in Chinese e-comm fulfillment that are now both listed in...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holdings A/H Trading - Strong Demand but Is Probably Close to Fair Value

S.F. Holding (002352 CH), China’s largest express delivery company, raised around US$860m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | October Volume Firmed | ZTO Disappoints | SF HK IPO This Week

October parcel volume growth improved, but price data was mixed. The biggest news in the sector came from ZTO (weak Q3 numbers) and SF Holding (HK...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

SF Holding seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through its Hong Kong listing. Our valuation analysis suggests that the offering is attractive at the...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

ZTO Express Q324 Results: Shift in Strategy Leads to Lower Core Margins & FY24 Guidance Cut | AVOID

ZTO's focus on price over volume share gains simply hasn't worked so far in 2024. Until management developts a path towards a return to profitable...

Tracking Traffic

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