Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure</li>
<li>And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure
And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.


Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS have Bullish technical signals in a challenging market.</li>
<li>After a 3 year run from the COVID lows, Samsonite has confirmed a Bearish technical signal.</li>
<li>Hautai Securities hits an all time low and becomes a "Catch a Falling Knife" chart.</li>
</ul>


Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS have Bullish technical signals in a challenging market.
After a 3 year run from the COVID lows, Samsonite has confirmed a Bearish technical signal.
Hautai Securities hits an all time low and becomes a "Catch a Falling Knife" chart.


Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

The Shanghai Commerical & Sa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names on the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the September 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Today is the base date for the September 2026 index review. These are our final expectations.</li>
</ul>


The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names on the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the September 2026 index rebal event.
Today is the base date for the September 2026 index review. These are our final expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep26: Final Expectations

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

Taiwan

Yuanta Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Its main businesses include brokerage, margin financing, domestic and overseas issuance, financial and M&A advisory, primary listings, corporate financial, securities underwriting and placements, etc. The company also holds the leading position in the derivatives business.

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Yuanta Financial Holding Co (2885 TT)

Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Buy the Pullback in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; Still bullish on global equities with $ACWI and the SPX holding above their respective bases at $117 and...

Vermilion Research

Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

Share prices of Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS had Bullish technical signals while Samsonite and Huatai Securities have...

David Mudd

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep26: Final Expectations

Currently, we expect no changes for the TDIV index for the September 2026 review and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be US$54mn.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

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