Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Yuexiu Property's (YXP) H1/23 results were largely in line with expectations. Overall revenue climbed 2.6% y-o-y to CNY 32.1 bn, driven by strong growth in property management, rental income and real estate agency & decoration services. However, sales from property development remained stagnant at CNY 29.8 bn (H1/22: CNY 29.8 bn). The company encountered ongoing margin pressure, largely due to falling profits and margins for the property development business, which we believe is in line with the overall industry trend. We note positively YXP's CNY 221 bn in unrecognised sales, which could have positive implications for steady revenue growth in the near to medium term. The company appears to have resilient access to capital markets. Liquidity was boosted as at end-June 2023, by a c. 39% y-o-y increase in cash to CNY 30.3 bn. The debt structure improved, with exposure to ST debt narrowing to 12% of total debt. The 2023 notes are trading near par (yielding 7-8%). The YUEXIU 2.8 26 are quoted at c. 90.6 (yielding 6.9-7.2%), while the 2031 notes are trading at c. 80 (yielding c. 7.5%). We view the pricing as fair, and maintain our "Hold" recommendation on the YUEXIU curve given the current weak market technicals.

  Yuexiu Property's (YXP) H1/23 results were largely in line with expectations. Overall revenue climbed 2.6% y-o-y to CNY 32.1 bn, driven by strong growth in property management, rental income and real estate agency & decoration services. However, sales from property development remained stagnant at CNY 29.8 bn (H1/22: CNY 29.8 bn). The company encountered ongoing margin pressure, largely due to falling profits and margins for the property development business, which we believe is in line with the overall industry trend.   We note positively YXP's CNY 221 bn in unrecognised sales, which could have positive implications for steady revenue growth in the near to medium term. The company appears to have resilient access to capital markets. Liquidity was boosted as at end-June 2023, by a c. 39% y-o-y increase in cash to CNY 30.3 bn. The debt structure improved, with exposure to ST debt narrowing to 12% of total debt.   The 2023 notes are trading near par (yielding 7-8%). The YUEXIU 2.8 26 are quoted at c. 90.6 (yielding 6.9-7.2%), while the 2031 notes are trading at c. 80 (yielding c. 7.5%). We view the pricing as fair, and maintain our "Hold" recommendation on the YUEXIU curve given the current weak market technicals. 

Yuexiu Property - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

We view Yuexiu Property (YXP) as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale. Our assessment takes into account the company's: [1] parental support from Guangzhou Yuexiu (GYX), which is an SOE; [2] sound operating track record; [3] good contracted sales performance; and [4] geographical diversity, with a focus on the Greater Bay Area. These are balanced against weak market sentiment and a change in government policy. Our fundamental Credit Bias on YXP is "Stable". We expect its near-term credit profile to be supported by stable sales and cash collection, with Transit-oriented Development being a key factor underpinning the company's growth. While YXP likely has limited room for margin improvement given the industry trends, we believe YXP could still outperform most of its competitors in terms of profitability. In addition, we expect the developer to have good funding access, given parent GYX's SOE status and close relationship with the municipal government. Controversies are "Immaterial" and the ESG Impact on Credit is "Neutral". We maintain our "Buy" recommendation on the YUEXIU curve. We like the company's fundamentals and its support from GYX. We also expect YXP's near-term credit profile to be supported by stable sales and cash collection.

  We view Yuexiu Property (YXP) as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale. Our assessment takes into account the company's: [1] parental support from Guangzhou Yuexiu (GYX), which is an SOE; [2] sound operating track record; [3] good contracted sales performance; and [4] geographical diversity, with a focus on the Greater Bay Area. These are balanced against weak market sentiment and a change in government policy.   Our fundamental Credit Bias on YXP is "Stable". We expect its near-term credit profile to be supported by stable sales and cash collection, with Transit-oriented Development being a key factor underpinning the company's growth. While YXP likely has limited room for margin improvement given the industry trends, we believe YXP could still outperform most of its competitors in terms of profitability. In addition, we expect the developer to have good funding access, given parent GYX's SOE status and close relationship with the municipal government.   Controversies are "Immaterial" and the ESG Impact on Credit is "Neutral".   We maintain our "Buy" recommendation on the YUEXIU curve. We like the company's fundamentals and its support from GYX. We also expect YXP's near-term credit profile to be supported by stable sales and cash collection. 

Yuexiu Property - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Yuexiu Property   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23700:1" rel="noopener">Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-construction-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35117:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/growatt-new-energy-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36103:1" rel="noopener">Growatt Technology (1833969D CH)</a> IPOs; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18097:1" rel="noopener">Yuexiu Property (123 HK)</a> rights trading.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penguin-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10190:1" rel="noopener">Penguin International (PBS SP)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK), Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) IPOs; Yuexiu Property (123 HK) rights trading.
Event-Driven developments - Invocare Ltd (IVC AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Penguin International (PBS SP).  


Weekly Deals Digest (21 May) - Yuexiu, Horizon Construction, Newcrest, InvoCare, Golden Energy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>400+ days ago, the TCC Group bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a> at just over 1.05x NAV failed on a combination of vocal minority opposition and minority apathy.</li>
<li>FHT has dramatically outperformed plummeting peers over the last few months on hope TCC might re-up that bid, but weaker peers and CRE markets suggest financing could be tougher.</li>
<li>Nothing is impossible, but it might make more sense for TCC to up its stake by stealth here rather than brute force. Earnings are 7 November.</li>
</ul>


400+ days ago, the TCC Group bid for Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) at just over 1.05x NAV failed on a combination of vocal minority opposition and minority apathy.
FHT has dramatically outperformed plummeting peers over the last few months on hope TCC might re-up that bid, but weaker peers and CRE markets suggest financing could be tougher.
Nothing is impossible, but it might make more sense for TCC to up its stake by stealth here rather than brute force. Earnings are 7 November.


Frasers Hospitality - Will TCC Renew Its Takeover Offer? Market Prices Bet Yes Ahead of Earnings

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

For all the roller coaster rides the sector has taken investors on over the years, the Chinese property developers have been unsettlingly consistent in one regard. The CNY1tn fixed asset investment (FAI) homebuilders coughed up in May continued a two-decades long secular trend that may make or break China's still fragile recovery (Exhibit 1).
The Debt-Fueled Supercycle. The sector has seen its share of excesses and corrections, exemplified by the post-GFC FAI expansion and subsequent retrenchment. Covid might have driven up construction costs, but the enthusiasm of would-be homeowners has shown no signs of abating. Just as the developers are working overtime to deleverage their balance sheets, household debt is piling up and may approach alarming levels over the next five years if mortgage growth doesn't decelerate quickly enough.
The Inventory Drawdown. Behind the headline FAI number is a more nuanced picture of inventory reductions and landbank replenishment. Housing starts slowed in May and dipped below project completions on a 12-month rolling basis. This affords cash-strapped property firms an opportunity to rebuild their cashflows, while deploying cash to projects in hand.
The Insatiable Demand. The 0.5% m/m or 5% y/y rise in home prices last month may appear benign in other settings. In the context of China's already exorbitant base, recent data points are a cause for concern. Among the largest cities across the country, those in the Greater Bay Area stand out as outliers, with valuations skyrocketing in spite of the latest round of lockdowns.
The Aggressive Developers. The increasingly bullish undertones of sell-side notes that have landed on our desks are centered around the inventory drawdown / cashflow rebuild story of the perceived higher-quality names in the space. We are not buyers of that story just yet and our work suggests that many developers have been acquiring land at a more aggressive rate than they had planned at the beginning of the year. Regulators are already keeping a close eye on recent transactions and we think we should too.
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 746px;">Exhibit 1: Monthly Housing FAI | 3M Moving Avg (CNY bn)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 746px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/144/original/image_45072834061624549646155.png?1624549646" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215144"></figure>
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Related Insights
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-financials-silver-linings-playbook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53013" rel="noopener">China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/glut-and-famine-we-might-see-snow-in-china-this-summer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52840" rel="noopener">Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-operation-twist-the-deposit-version" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53435" rel="noopener">China Macro: Operation Twist | The Deposit Version</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-consumers-remain-on-the-sidelines-as-their-home-equity-grows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53210" rel="noopener">China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-ppi-peaks-while-cpi-eases-tightening-fears" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52778" rel="noopener">China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-exports-disappoint-but-it-s-still-early-in-the-game" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52728" rel="noopener">China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game</a> </li>
</ul>

For all the roller coaster rides the sector has taken investors on over the years, the Chinese property developers have been unsettlingly consistent in one regard. The CNY1tn fixed asset investment (FAI) homebuilders coughed up in May continued a two-decades long secular trend that may make or break China's still fragile recovery (Exhibit 1).
The Debt-Fueled Supercycle. The sector has seen its share of excesses and corrections, exemplified by the post-GFC FAI expansion and subsequent retrenchment. Covid might have driven up construction costs, but the enthusiasm of would-be homeowners has shown no signs of abating. Just as the developers are working overtime to deleverage their balance sheets, household debt is piling up and may approach alarming levels over the next five years if mortgage growth doesn't decelerate quickly enough.
The Inventory Drawdown. Behind the headline FAI number is a more nuanced picture of inventory reductions and landbank replenishment. Housing starts slowed in May and dipped below project completions on a 12-month rolling basis. This affords cash-strapped property firms an opportunity to rebuild their cashflows, while deploying cash to projects in hand.
The Insatiable Demand. The 0.5% m/m or 5% y/y rise in home prices last month may appear benign in other settings. In the context of China's already exorbitant base, recent data points are a cause for concern. Among the largest cities across the country, those in the Greater Bay Area stand out as outliers, with valuations skyrocketing in spite of the latest round of lockdowns.
The Aggressive Developers. The increasingly bullish undertones of sell-side notes that have landed on our desks are centered around the inventory drawdown / cashflow rebuild story of the perceived higher-quality names in the space. We are not buyers of that story just yet and our work suggests that many developers have been acquiring land at a more aggressive rate than they had planned at the beginning of the year. Regulators are already keeping a close eye on recent transactions and we think we should too.



Exhibit 1: Monthly Housing FAI | 3M Moving Avg (CNY bn)




Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Our analysis




Related Insights


China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook 

Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 

China Macro: Operation Twist | The Deposit Version 

China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 

China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 

China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 


China Properties: Like Clockwork, Real Estate Investments Haven't Skipped a Beat

China

Yuexiu Property Company Ltd., through its subsidiaries, develops, manages and invests in properties. The Company also invests in a Real Estate Investment Trusts.

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Yuexiu Property (123 HK)

Yuexiu Property - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Yuexiu Property's (YXP) H1/23 results were largely in line with expectations. Overall revenue climbed 2.6% y-o-y to CNY 32.1 bn, driven by strong...

Lucror Analytics

Yuexiu Property - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Yuexiu Property (YXP) as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale. Our assessment takes into account the company's: [1] parental support from...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Deals Digest (21 May) - Yuexiu, Horizon Construction, Newcrest, InvoCare, Golden Energy

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (InvoCare, Newcrest, United Malt, Golden Energy, Penguin) and ECM (Yuexiu, Tata Tech,...

Arun George

Frasers Hospitality - Will TCC Renew Its Takeover Offer? Market Prices Bet Yes Ahead of Earnings

Frasers Hospitality Trust is trading as if TCC might make another offer. But peers in Singapore/Asia are getting crushed, and globally CRE is in...

Travis Lundy

China Properties: Like Clockwork, Real Estate Investments Haven't Skipped a Beat

Housing FAI in May continued a secular trend that may make or break China's recovery. Inventory drawdowns may afford developers some breathing...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

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