Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We screen the Mainland Securities ahead of the HSCEI review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.</li>
<li>One ADD and one DELETE are screened as high-conviction calls this cycle.</li>
<li>We also include one mid-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DELETE.</li>
</ul>


We screen the Mainland Securities ahead of the HSCEI review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.
One ADD and one DELETE are screened as high-conviction calls this cycle.
We also include one mid-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DELETE.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The macro headwinds have been tough, but in our view, Yum China has already tackled them very well.</li><li>Based on our estimates, SSS recovery for KFC and Pizza Hut in 10M25 (vs 2019) was as high as 88%, which is way better than industry average of 70%.</li><li>And we believe the main reason for such outperformance lies in its commitment to deliver good food with great value. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The macro headwinds have been tough, but in our view, Yum China has already tackled them very well.Based on our estimates, SSS recovery for KFC and Pizza Hut in 10M25 (vs 2019) was as high as 88%, which is way better than industry average of 70%.And we believe the main reason for such outperformance lies in its commitment to deliver good food with great value. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yum China (9987 HK/YUMC US) - Key takeaways from YUMC 2025 Investor Day

<ul><li>The macro headwinds have been tough, but in our view, Yum China has already tackled them very well.</li><li>Based on our estimates, SSS recovery for KFC and Pizza Hut in 10M25 (vs 2019) was as high as 88%, which is way better than industry average of 70%.</li><li>And we believe the main reason for such outperformance lies in its commitment to deliver good food with great value. In terms of company guidance (the FY26E-28E target), we believe the major beat is from Pizza Hut (esp. on store expansion and restaurant level OP margin), but the figures for KFC are slightly below expectation (esp. for the restaurant level OP margin).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The macro headwinds have been tough, but in our view, Yum China has already tackled them very well.Based on our estimates, SSS recovery for KFC and Pizza Hut in 10M25 (vs 2019) was as high as 88%, which is way better than industry average of 70%.And we believe the main reason for such outperformance lies in its commitment to deliver good food with great value. In terms of company guidance (the FY26E-28E target), we believe the major beat is from Pizza Hut (esp. on store expansion and restaurant level OP margin), but the figures for KFC are slightly below expectation (esp. for the restaurant level OP margin).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yum China (9987 HK/YUMC US) - Key Takeaways from YUMC 2025 Investor Day

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December. All changes are in line.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics</a> is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao</a>. </li>
</ul>



China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.

Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao. 


HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2025 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st November 2025.</li>
<li>We continue to expect three index changes for December 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of US$264mn one-way.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2025 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st November 2025.
We continue to expect three index changes for December 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of US$264mn one-way.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Three Index Change Possible; ~US$264mn One-Way; Announcement Soon

China

Yum China operates and franchises a diverse portfolio of restaurant brands across the People's Republic of China, including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang. The company also provides online food delivery services. Yum China Holdings, Inc. was spun off from Yum! Brands in 2016 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Yum China (9987 HK)

HSCEI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect Shenzhou to be deleted below rank 60 and Hua Hong Grace to fill its seat, while a mid-conviction WuXi Bio ADD would also see ZTO deleted.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yum China (9987 HK/YUMC US) - Key takeaways from YUMC 2025 Investor Day

Based on our estimates, SSS recovery for KFC and Pizza Hut in 10M25 (vs 2019) was as high as 88%, which is way better than industry average of 70%.

CMB International

Yum China (9987 HK/YUMC US) - Key Takeaways from YUMC 2025 Investor Day

Based on our estimates, SSS recovery for KFC and Pizza Hut in 10M25 (vs 2019) was as high as 88%, which is way better than industry average of 70%.

CMB International

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

3 changes for the HSCEI in December - all in line. Innovent Bio also added to the HSI. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6%...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Three Index Change Possible; ~US$264mn One-Way; Announcement Soon

We continue to expect Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) to outperform Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) over the next few weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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