Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.</li>
<li>The performance of the "Magnificent 5" China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hong-kong-the-glass-is-half-full-time-to-buy-beta" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:134396" rel="noopener">Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta</a> .</li>
<li>The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.</li>
</ul>


Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.
The performance of the "Magnificent 5" China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta .
The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.


Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Obvious policy efforts are being made to drive consumption and improve consumer confidence.</li>
<li>Previous attempts have resulted in increased savings but policy direction has changed</li>
<li>Beaten-Up consumer names have a good risk-reward at this stage</li>
</ul>


Obvious policy efforts are being made to drive consumption and improve consumer confidence.
Previous attempts have resulted in increased savings but policy direction has changed
Beaten-Up consumer names have a good risk-reward at this stage


China Crosses the Rubicon - Direct Payments to Kickstart Consumption

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>Getting China property right is essential for investors who follow China equities because most companies, from cyclical to consumer, can’t be insulated from its downturn.</li>
<li>China housing market is not collapsing as people feared; instead we see signs it is bottoming out with Xi’s pursuit of high-quality growth model starting paying off.</li>
<li>We expect the sector’s strain on Chinese economy will ease moving into 2025/26, setting a favorable backdrop for most China’s consumer-oriented stocks.</li>
</ul>


Getting China property right is essential for investors who follow China equities because most companies, from cyclical to consumer, can’t be insulated from its downturn.
China housing market is not collapsing as people feared; instead we see signs it is bottoming out with Xi’s pursuit of high-quality growth model starting paying off.
We expect the sector’s strain on Chinese economy will ease moving into 2025/26, setting a favorable backdrop for most China’s consumer-oriented stocks.


China Property: Silver Lining Through the Fog

<ul>
<li>China State Construction International and Sinopec Engineering have short term reversal patterns indicating profit taking from recent advances.</li>
<li>China Resources Cement reverses downtrend with volume indicating some near term gains after reporting that 1st half profit was under pressure.</li>
<li>Yum China continues to show downward pressure given the increasing competition in the retail food segment, while Nongfu Spring collapses on news about the safety of its products.</li>
</ul>


China State Construction International and Sinopec Engineering have short term reversal patterns indicating profit taking from recent advances.
China Resources Cement reverses downtrend with volume indicating some near term gains after reporting that 1st half profit was under pressure.
Yum China continues to show downward pressure given the increasing competition in the retail food segment, while Nongfu Spring collapses on news about the safety of its products.


Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

<ul>
<li>The vast majority of under-educated Chinese in less-developed regions are largely irrelevant to the China consumer market as investors and analysts know it.</li>
<li>That is why that simple benchmarking with developed markets on per capita basis almost always results in forecasts that prove too optimistic in hindsight.</li>
<li>They risk being further left behind as technology advancements and economic transformation may block the path for their income growth and hence derail consumption upgrade.</li>
</ul>


The vast majority of under-educated Chinese in less-developed regions are largely irrelevant to the China consumer market as investors and analysts know it.
That is why that simple benchmarking with developed markets on per capita basis almost always results in forecasts that prove too optimistic in hindsight.
They risk being further left behind as technology advancements and economic transformation may block the path for their income growth and hence derail consumption upgrade.


What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?

China

Yum China Holdings, Inc. operates chain restaurants. The Company offers pizza, entrees, pasta, rice dishes, appetizers, soups, vegetables, beverages, and desserts. Yum China Holding conducts its business worldwide.

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Yum China Holdings (YUMC US)

HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE)

Even though HK/China tech names have surged, short positions have not covered. The large underweight position in HK/China by international funds...

David Mudd

China Crosses the Rubicon - Direct Payments to Kickstart Consumption

Policy efforts are shifting towards driving consumption and boosting consumer confidence, presenting a favourable risk-reward opportunity for...

Rikki Malik

China Property: Silver Lining Through the Fog

Getting China property right is crucial for China equity investors. The housing market is not collapsing but stabilizing in our view, gradually...

Eric Chen

Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

Sinopec Engineering and China State Construction have entered short term corrections while CRC has broken its downtrend in the near term. Yum...

David Mudd

What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?

The majority of under-educated Chinese in lower-tier cities is irrelevant to China consumer market as we know it. Be cautious with simple...

Eric Chen

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE)

Even though HK/China tech names have surged, short positions have not covered. The large underweight position in HK/China by international funds...

David Mudd

China Crosses the Rubicon - Direct Payments to Kickstart Consumption

​Policy efforts are shifting towards driving consumption and boosting consumer confidence, presenting a favourable risk-reward opportunity for...

Rikki Malik

China Property: Silver Lining Through the Fog

Getting China property right is crucial for China equity investors. The housing market is not collapsing but stabilizing in our view, gradually...

Eric Chen

Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

Sinopec Engineering and China State Construction have entered short term corrections while CRC has broken its downtrend in the near term. Yum...

David Mudd

What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?

The majority of under-educated Chinese in lower-tier cities is irrelevant to China consumer market as we know it. Be cautious with simple...

Eric Chen

Policy efforts are shifting towards driving consumption and boosting consumer confidence, presenting a favourable risk-reward opportunity for...