Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside resistance, the EM vs. EAFE ratio is bullishly inflecting, and the US dollar (DXY) exhibits signs of breaking down. Russia (RTS), Taiwan (TAIEX), and Brazil (Bovespa) are deserving of overweights in the EM realm, though China (MSCI China) appears to be bottoming as well -- add exposure. EM Sectors: Technology and Consumer Discretionary are leadership -- overweight. Communications is the next most attractive EM Sector thanks largely to improvement in Tencent (700-HK) -- add exposure. Lastly, Materials exhibits early signs of potential price and RS bottoms -- add selective exposure

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside resistance, the EM vs. EAFE ratio is bullishly inflecting, and the US dollar (DXY) exhibits signs of breaking down. Russia (RTS), Taiwan (TAIEX), and Brazil (Bovespa) are deserving of overweights in the EM realm, though China (MSCI China) appears to be bottoming as well -- add exposure. EM Sectors: Technology and Consumer Discretionary are leadership -- overweight. Communications is the next most attractive EM Sector thanks largely to improvement in Tencent (700-HK) -- add exposure. Lastly, Materials exhibits early signs of potential price and RS bottoms -- add selective exposure

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Senior Technology-A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Shenzhen Senior is seeking an A+H listing and passed HKEX listing hearing. China Securities (International) is the sole sponsor.</li>
<li>We look at the company's core segments: coated separators, wet-process separators, and dry-process separators.</li>
<li>We set out our preliminary view on fair value based on A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


Shenzhen Senior is seeking an A+H listing and passed HKEX listing hearing. China Securities (International) is the sole sponsor.
We look at the company's core segments: coated separators, wet-process separators, and dry-process separators.
We set out our preliminary view on fair value based on A-H premium.


Shenzhen Senior (星源材质) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Index Rebalance

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical / Index Rebalance

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH)

<ul>
<li>We measured cross-window alpha for the 53 names in the Feb 2026 MSCI China rebalance, vs the MSCI China benchmark, from WPreA through WI4 (60 days post-implementation).</li>
<li>We split the ADD and DELETE cohorts by FF/ADV bucket (LOW/MID/HIGH) to separate the active-positioning trades from the passive-flow trades.</li>
<li>We tested implementation-day intraday signals (R/O opening gap, R/I open-to-close) against later-window outcomes to find any forward-predictive read on the post-implementation path.</li>
</ul>


We measured cross-window alpha for the 53 names in the Feb 2026 MSCI China rebalance, vs the MSCI China benchmark, from WPreA through WI4 (60 days post-implementation).
We split the ADD and DELETE cohorts by FF/ADV bucket (LOW/MID/HIGH) to separate the active-positioning trades from the passive-flow trades.
We tested implementation-day intraday signals (R/O opening gap, R/I open-to-close) against later-window outcomes to find any forward-predictive read on the post-implementation path.


MS-China March 2026 Rebalance: Post-Event Review

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Industrial Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Bankcomm, Boc, Ja Solar Technology, Xinjiang Daqo, Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Industrial Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Bankcomm, Boc, Ja Solar Technology, Xinjiang Daqo, Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise.


CSI 300 Index Earning Revision (Jun): Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Industrial Bank

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank / Index Rebalance

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (601825 CH)

<ul>
<li>There are 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, 50 changes for the CSI 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 June.</li>
<li>There are 240 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$12bn.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> and the CSI 1000 Index but underperformed for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 7 changes for the CSI 300 Index, 50 changes for the CSI 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 June.
There are 240 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$12bn.
The adds have outperformed the deletes for the CSI 300 Index and the CSI 1000 Index but underperformed for the CSI 500 Index.


CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$12bn Trade

China

Yunnan Energy New Material Co., Ltd. manufactures paper packaging materials. The Company produces and sells printing packages, packing boxes, liquid wrapping papers, high-grade wrapping papers, and other related products. Yunnan Energy New Material also produces and sells biaxially oriented polypropylen films.

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Yunnan Energy New Material (002812 CH)

Shift Exposure From EAFE to EM

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside...

Vermilion Research

Shenzhen Senior (星源材质) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Shenzhen Senior is seeking an A+H listing. This note covers the company's business, industry context and our early view on valuation.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MS-China March 2026 Rebalance: Post-Event Review

A retrospective look at the MSCI China Feb 2026 rebalance: cross-window alpha, FF/ADV bucket cuts for ADD and DELETE, and the implementation-day...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CSI 300 Index Earning Revision (Jun): Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Industrial Bank

We analyzed CSI 300's consensus for Jun 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (601825 CH), Industrial Bank (601166...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$12bn Trade

The 314 changes to the CSI300/500/1000 indices lead to 240 unique names. The round-trip trade across all three indices is around US$12bn. Some...

Brian Freitas

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