HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 24Q1 product sales was up just 6% QoQ. The overall data shows that PD-1 growth has entered a bottleneck. This makes 24H2 YoY growth rate uncertain.</li>
<li>The deal between Hengrui and Hercules is different from traditional license-out cooperation, but belong to asset spin-off in essence, which is a “smart deal” and also a meaningful attempt.</li>
<li>There’re some positive signals in Zai Lab’s 24Q1 performance, but the pain points of business model severely limit its profitability/revenue scale. Zai Lab still has a long way to go.</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 24Q1 product sales was up just 6% QoQ. The overall data shows that PD-1 growth has entered a bottleneck. This makes 24H2 YoY growth rate uncertain.
The deal between Hengrui and Hercules is different from traditional license-out cooperation, but belong to asset spin-off in essence, which is a “smart deal” and also a meaningful attempt.
There’re some positive signals in Zai Lab’s 24Q1 performance, but the pain points of business model severely limit its profitability/revenue scale. Zai Lab still has a long way to go.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>9926 HK/1801 HK/ BGNE US/9995 HK: US Biosecure Act extended Chinese CXO collaboration until 2032  (+/+/+/+)</li>
<li>BGNE US :BeiGene’s performance in the first quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, especially benefiting from overseas BRUKINSA(/)</li>
<li>ZLAB US:Zai Lab's revenue and profit in the first quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, mainly due to Efgartigimod.(/)</li>
</ul>


9926 HK/1801 HK/ BGNE US/9995 HK: US Biosecure Act extended Chinese CXO collaboration until 2032  (+/+/+/+)
BGNE US :BeiGene’s performance in the first quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, especially benefiting from overseas BRUKINSA(/)
ZLAB US:Zai Lab's revenue and profit in the first quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, mainly due to Efgartigimod.(/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926 HK/1801HK/ BGNE/9995HK/ZLAB/NIO/LI/1211HK/BEKE/1810HK/3888HK/981HK/MSFT/INTC

<ul>
<li>C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;</li>
<li>PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;</li>
<li>Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. </li>
</ul>


C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;
PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;
Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. 


[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

<ul>
<li>9926 HK /1801 HK /1877 HK/ BGNE/ ZLAB/9995 HK: US lobbying group distanced itself from Wuxi AppTec after being accused（/）</li>
<li>1211 HK/ XPEV/ 1810 HK：GAC AION orders surged after price cuts（/）</li>
<li>Chery Automobile:It Is Reported that Chery Automobile Is in Talks with the Italian government to build a factory（/）</li>
</ul>


9926 HK /1801 HK /1877 HK/ BGNE/ ZLAB/9995 HK: US lobbying group distanced itself from Wuxi AppTec after being accused（/）
1211 HK/ XPEV/ 1810 HK：GAC AION orders surged after price cuts（/）
Chery Automobile:It Is Reported that Chery Automobile Is in Talks with the Italian government to build a factory（/）


[Blue Lotus Daily]9926HK/1801HK/1877HK/BGNE/ZLAB/9995HK/1211HK/XPEV/1810HK/Chery Automobile/LI/NIO

<ul>
<li>LI/XPEV/NIO: Li, Xpeng and GAC AION announced new price actions（+/+/-）</li>
<li>ZLAB: Zai Lab’s revenue growth in 4Q23 is weak, and loss narrowing is limited （-）</li>
<li>1810 HK: Qualcomm exhibited a number of client-side LLM products at MWC Barcelona, covering mobile phones, PCs and communications（+）</li>
</ul>


LI/XPEV/NIO: Li, Xpeng and GAC AION announced new price actions（+/+/-）
ZLAB: Zai Lab’s revenue growth in 4Q23 is weak, and loss narrowing is limited （-）
1810 HK: Qualcomm exhibited a number of client-side LLM products at MWC Barcelona, covering mobile phones, PCs and communications（+）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV/ 1810 HK/LI/NIO/ZLAB/BGNE/MNSO

China

Zai Lab Limited operates as a bio-pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops therapeutic technology for antibody-based oncology, autoimmune, and infectious diseases treatments. Zai Lab also manufactures drugs in the form of capsules, injections, and liquids. Zai Lab serves patients worldwide.

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Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

Innovent's PD-1 growth face bottleneck, with uncertainty in 24H2 growth; Hengrui-Hercules deal a "smart" asset spin-off; Zai Lab has positive...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926 HK/1801HK/ BGNE/9995HK/ZLAB/NIO/LI/1211HK/BEKE/1810HK/3888HK/981HK/MSFT/INTC

US Biosecure Act extends Chinese collaboration until 2032, BeiGene and Zai Lab exceed Q1 expectations with BRUKINSA and Efgartigimod.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]9926HK/1801HK/1877HK/BGNE/ZLAB/9995HK/1211HK/XPEV/1810HK/Chery Automobile/LI/NIO

US lobbying group distances from Wuxi AppTec, GAC AION orders surge after price cuts, Chery Automobile in talks with Italian government to build...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV/ 1810 HK/LI/NIO/ZLAB/BGNE/MNSO

Li, Xpeng, and GAC AION adjust prices; Zai Lab's revenue growth weakens; Qualcomm showcases new products at MWC Barcelona.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

​Innovent's PD-1 growth face bottleneck, with uncertainty in 24H2 growth; Hengrui-Hercules deal a "smart" asset spin-off; Zai Lab has positive...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926 HK/1801HK/ BGNE/9995HK/ZLAB/NIO/LI/1211HK/BEKE/1810HK/3888HK/981HK/MSFT/INTC

​US Biosecure Act extends Chinese collaboration until 2032, BeiGene and Zai Lab exceed Q1 expectations with BRUKINSA and Efgartigimod.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

​Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]9926HK/1801HK/1877HK/BGNE/ZLAB/9995HK/1211HK/XPEV/1810HK/Chery Automobile/LI/NIO

​US lobbying group distances from Wuxi AppTec, GAC AION orders surge after price cuts, Chery Automobile in talks with Italian government to build...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV/ 1810 HK/LI/NIO/ZLAB/BGNE/MNSO

​Li, Xpeng, and GAC AION adjust prices; Zai Lab's revenue growth weakens; Qualcomm showcases new products at MWC Barcelona.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Innovent's PD-1 growth face bottleneck, with uncertainty in 24H2 growth; Hengrui-Hercules deal a "smart" asset spin-off; Zai Lab has positive...

US Biosecure Act extends Chinese collaboration until 2032, BeiGene and Zai Lab exceed Q1 expectations with BRUKINSA and Efgartigimod.

Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

US lobbying group distances from Wuxi AppTec, GAC AION orders surge after price cuts, Chery Automobile in talks with Italian government to build...

Li, Xpeng, and GAC AION adjust prices; Zai Lab's revenue growth weakens; Qualcomm showcases new products at MWC Barcelona.