Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Zai Lab reported C2Q15 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss 1.5% above, 31% narrower and 38% narrower than our estimate, and 12% below, </li>
<li>We cut ZEJULA's peak sales by 12% due to sustained competition. We are also concerned on the slow ramp up of AUGTYRO, which will likely persist.</li>
<li>However, ZLAB has several catalysts ahead, including Bemarituzumab, KarXT, and ZL1310. We keep TP unchanged and maintain BUY.</li>
</ul>


Zai Lab reported C2Q15 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss 1.5% above, 31% narrower and 38% narrower than our estimate, and 12% below, 
We cut ZEJULA's peak sales by 12% due to sustained competition. We are also concerned on the slow ramp up of AUGTYRO, which will likely persist.
However, ZLAB has several catalysts ahead, including Bemarituzumab, KarXT, and ZL1310. We keep TP unchanged and maintain BUY.


[Zai LAB (ZLAB US, BUY, TP US$40) Review]: Past Is Holding ZLAB Back but Future Is What Matters

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Equity Capital Markets

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)</a> aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement.</li>
<li>The stock has done exceptionally well this year but is now trading at near its all-time highs and it doesn’t really need the cash.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement.
The stock has done exceptionally well this year but is now trading at near its all-time highs and it doesn’t really need the cash.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Hansoh Pharma Placement - Somewhat Expected but Still Opportunistic

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The NHSA has issued clear instructions for VBP in 2025, including two batches of national VBP of drugs and one batch of medical consumables VBP. TCM will also be included.</li>
<li>The sales growth of GLP-1s has entered a turning point, it will be far from the previously high expectations. The actual market size of GLP-1s could be only US$100 billion.</li>
<li>Rapid sales growth of Efgartigimod is the key factor for Zai Lab to narrow the losses.But whether it can be breakeven relies on the decline of cost/expenses, not revenue growth.</li>
</ul>


The NHSA has issued clear instructions for VBP in 2025, including two batches of national VBP of drugs and one batch of medical consumables VBP. TCM will also be included.
The sales growth of GLP-1s has entered a turning point, it will be far from the previously high expectations. The actual market size of GLP-1s could be only US$100 billion.
Rapid sales growth of Efgartigimod is the key factor for Zai Lab to narrow the losses.But whether it can be breakeven relies on the decline of cost/expenses, not revenue growth.


China Healtchare Weely (Mar.16) - 2025 VBP Instructions, GLP-1s Cooling Down, Zai Lab's Headwinds

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.</li>
<li>Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.</li>
<li>This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.


Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

China

Zai Lab Limited operates as a bio-pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops therapeutic technology for antibody-based oncology, autoimmune, and infectious diseases treatments. Zai Lab also manufactures drugs in the form of capsules, injections, and liquids. Zai Lab serves patients worldwide.

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Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)

[Zai LAB (ZLAB US, BUY, TP US$40) Review]: Past Is Holding ZLAB Back but Future Is What Matters

Zai Lab reports better-than-expected financials but faces challenges with competition and slow product ramp-up. Despite concerns, upcoming...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Hansoh Pharma Placement - Somewhat Expected but Still Opportunistic

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

China Healtchare Weely (Mar.16) - 2025 VBP Instructions, GLP-1s Cooling Down, Zai Lab's Headwinds

NHSA sets VBP guideline for 2025, including TCM. GLP-1 sales growth slowing, market size may be US$100 billion. Efgartigimod sales crucial for Zai...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Zai LAB (ZLAB US, BUY, TP US$40) Review]: Past Is Holding ZLAB Back but Future Is What Matters

​Zai Lab reports better-than-expected financials but faces challenges with competition and slow product ramp-up. Despite concerns, upcoming...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Hansoh Pharma Placement - Somewhat Expected but Still Opportunistic

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

China Healtchare Weely (Mar.16) - 2025 VBP Instructions, GLP-1s Cooling Down, Zai Lab's Headwinds

​NHSA sets VBP guideline for 2025, including TCM. GLP-1 sales growth slowing, market size may be US$100 billion. Efgartigimod sales crucial for Zai...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Zai Lab reports better-than-expected financials but faces challenges with competition and slow product ramp-up. Despite concerns, upcoming...

NHSA sets VBP guideline for 2025, including TCM. GLP-1 sales growth slowing, market size may be US$100 billion. Efgartigimod sales crucial for Zai...