Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Heineken | no real triggers for the near term; October may bring more clarity</li>
<li>The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt to under promise and overdeliver or rather a signal that the current market environment is still rather challenging.</li>
<li>In case of the latter, management would have an additional buffer to avoid new disappointments.</li>
</ul>


Heineken | no real triggers for the near term; October may bring more clarity
The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt to under promise and overdeliver or rather a signal that the current market environment is still rather challenging.
In case of the latter, management would have an additional buffer to avoid new disappointments.


What's New(S) In Amsterdam - 29 July (Heineken | Philips | JET | E-Com | Housing Market)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>bol. has made its new AI shopping assistant, Shophulp, available to all customers.</li>
<li>The conversational tool sits alongside the search bar in the app and on the website.</li>
<li>Users can describe their needs in natural language. </li>
</ul>


bol. has made its new AI shopping assistant, Shophulp, available to all customers.
The conversational tool sits alongside the search bar in the app and on the website.
Users can describe their needs in natural language. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation with PKO Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | EU approves major customs overhaul targeting e-commerce parcel surge</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation with PKO Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | EU approves major customs overhaul targeting e-commerce parcel surge

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

Germany

Zalando SE provides online sale of fashion accessories. The Company offers clothing, sports products, shoes, bags, and other accessories for men, women, and children. Zalando markets its products worldwide.

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Zalando (ZAL GR)

What's New(S) In Amsterdam - 29 July (Heineken | Philips | JET | E-Com | Housing Market)

The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam

bol. has made its new AI shopping assistant, Shophulp, available to all customers. The conversational tool sits alongside the search bar in the app...

The IDEA!

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation...

The IDEA!

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