Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

The Mexican peso rallied following the midterm election on Sunday, while the Peruvian sol sold off following the presidential runoff. While the elections reaffirmed our bullish view for the Mexican peso, despite our constructive view on the Peruvian sol we stay on the sidelines given the recount-related uncertainty ahead.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The Mexican peso rallied following the midterm election on Sunday, while the Peruvian sol sold off following the presidential runoff. While the elections reaffirmed our bullish view for the Mexican peso, despite our constructive view on the Peruvian sol we stay on the sidelines given the recount-related uncertainty ahead.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Opposite Reactions of Mexican Peso and Peruvian Sol to Sunday’s Elections

In this note, we go over the rationale behind the recent outperformance of the Hungarian forint and make the case that the currency can continue to appreciate in the near term.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we go over the rationale behind the recent outperformance of the Hungarian forint and make the case that the currency can continue to appreciate in the near term.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Hungary’s Outperformance Is Playing Catch-Up

The Peruvian sol has depreciated to its historically weakest level ahead of the presidential runoff election this weekend. We find the currency to be attractive from the point of view of valuations, macroeconomic fundamentals, and a fragmented Congress preventing radical policymaking. However, given the binary risks, we suggest waiting until after the election for a better entry point.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The Peruvian sol has depreciated to its historically weakest level ahead of the presidential runoff election this weekend. We find the currency to be attractive from the point of view of valuations, macroeconomic fundamentals, and a fragmented Congress preventing radical policymaking. However, given the binary risks, we suggest waiting until after the election for a better entry point.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Timing the Entry for Peruvian Sol

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if, following the sharp depreciation over the past two months, the US dollar becomes rangebound, taking away the impetus for EM currencies to appreciate on aggregate.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if, following the sharp depreciation over the past two months, the US dollar becomes rangebound, taking away the impetus for EM currencies to appreciate on aggregate.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: EM Currencies to Target in the Late Recovery Phase

Despite its recent underperformance, we reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start tightening monetary policy this year. In our view, the concerns regarding the upcoming change at the helm of the central bank are overstated.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

Despite its recent underperformance, we reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start tightening monetary policy this year. In our view, the concerns regarding the upcoming change at the helm of the central bank are overstated.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Stay Bullish on Mexican Peso

South Africa

The South African rand is the official currency of The Republic of South Africa.

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FX Dashboard: Opposite Reactions of Mexican Peso and Peruvian Sol to Sunday’s Elections

The Sunday elections in Mexico reaffirmed our bullish view for the peso, but in the case of Peru, despite our constructive view on the sol we stay...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Hungary’s Outperformance Is Playing Catch-Up

In this note, we go over the rationale behind the recent outperformance of the Hungarian forint and make the case that the currency can continue to...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Timing the Entry for Peruvian Sol

With the Peruvian sol depreciating to its historically weakest level ahead of the presidential runoff election this weekend, we suggest waiting...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: EM Currencies to Target in the Late Recovery Phase

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if the US dollar becomes rangebound going forward, taking away the impetus for...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Stay Bullish on Mexican Peso

We reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)