Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX</li>
<li>Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.</li>
<li>Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.
Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil


Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The government has promised consumers price inflation for almost a decade now but the only real result of this policy is that we’ve seen record levels of household saving. </li>
<li>Now, however, supply chain and other issues are quickly beginning to force up prices of basic products and these increases are having a real impact on household budgets.</li>
<li>How long this situation may last is the big question but the focus on price means discount food retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-bussan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4701:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)</a> are likely to boom.</li>
</ul>


The government has promised consumers price inflation for almost a decade now but the only real result of this policy is that we’ve seen record levels of household saving. 
Now, however, supply chain and other issues are quickly beginning to force up prices of basic products and these increases are having a real impact on household budgets.
How long this situation may last is the big question but the focus on price means discount food retailers like Kobe Bussan (3038 JP) are likely to boom.


Japanese Households Focus on Price as Inflation Fears Spike

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We looked back and identified which factors drove the Japanese market in 2018. We found that Value, which is historically strong in Japan, did poorly and really the only investment styles/factors that did well were large-cap and names with a high percent of retail investors.  </p>

We looked back and identified which factors drove the Japanese market in 2018. We found that Value, which is historically strong in Japan, did poorly and really the only investment styles/factors that did well were large-cap and names with a high percent of retail investors.  

2018 Was Not the Year for Value or Beta Names in Japan....

<p>In Japan, high Beta names and names with a high % of Foreign Investors underperformed this week after doing very well the previous week. It has been quite a while since high Beta names have consistently outperformed. However, Retail Investor names continue to do well. </p>

In Japan, high Beta names and names with a high % of Foreign Investors underperformed this week after doing very well the previous week. It has been quite a while since high Beta names have consistently outperformed. However, Retail Investor names continue to do well. 

High Beta and Names with a High % of Foreign Investors Underperformed This Week in Japan....

Japan

ZENSHO Holdings CO., LTD. operates a fast food chain specialized in GYUDON which serves bowls of rice topped with seasoned beef based in Kanto.      The Company operates also diversifying into other types of food chains such as "Coco's" and "Big Boy" in Japan.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Zensho Holdings (7550 JP)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

Japanese Households Focus on Price as Inflation Fears Spike

Pressure on household budgets from rising prices – real and perceived – are causing Japanese consumers to focus even further on prices. This will...

Michael Causton

2018 Was Not the Year for Value or Beta Names in Japan....

We looked back and identified which factors drove the Japanese market in 2018. We found that Value, which is historically strong in Japan, did...

Custom Products Group

High Beta and Names with a High % of Foreign Investors Underperformed This Week in Japan....

In Japan, high Beta names and names with a high % of Foreign Investors underperformed this week after doing very well the previous week. It has...

Custom Products Group

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

Japanese Households Focus on Price as Inflation Fears Spike

Pressure on household budgets from rising prices – real and perceived – are causing Japanese consumers to focus even further on prices. This will...

Michael Causton

2018 Was Not the Year for Value or Beta Names in Japan....

We looked back and identified which factors drove the Japanese market in 2018. We found that Value, which is historically strong in Japan, did...

Custom Products Group

High Beta and Names with a High % of Foreign Investors Underperformed This Week in Japan....

In Japan, high Beta names and names with a high % of Foreign Investors underperformed this week after doing very well the previous week. It has...

Custom Products Group

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...