IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minmetals-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1917:1" rel="noopener">Minmetals Land (230 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that China Minmetals Corporation’s HK$1.00 scheme offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 February. </li>
<li>No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. This is a done deal in large part due to the significant takeover premium.</li>
<li>At the last close price and for a 10 March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.1%/23.9%. </li>
</ul>



Minmetals Land (230 HK)’s IFA opines that China Minmetals Corporation’s HK$1.00 scheme offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 February. 
No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. This is a done deal in large part due to the significant takeover premium.
At the last close price and for a 10 March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.1%/23.9%. 


Minmetals Land (230 HK): Scheme Vote on 9 February Is a Done Deal

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 22 adds and 27 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 518.</li>
<li>We expect all 22 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 24 of the 27 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Since the end of June, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased on 20 of the 27 HSCI deletions and there could be some unwinding in the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 22 adds and 27 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 518.
We expect all 22 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 24 of the 27 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the end of June, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased on 20 of the 27 HSCI deletions and there could be some unwinding in the next two weeks.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 22 Adds, 27 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

<ul>
<li>There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.</li>
<li>There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.
We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.
There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hailan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39776:1" rel="noopener">Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)</a>'s voluntary conditional offer from its controlling shareholder at HK$3.36 per share is open. The IFA opines that the offer is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The offer is subject to a 90% minimum acceptance condition – the offeror holds at least 90% of the offer shares and the disinterested shares.</li>
<li>The acceptance condition is daunting due to the high hurdle rate and the lack of a bump. The current gross spread of 5.0% equals the premium to the undisturbed price.  </li>
</ul>



Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)'s voluntary conditional offer from its controlling shareholder at HK$3.36 per share is open. The IFA opines that the offer is fair and reasonable.
The offer is subject to a 90% minimum acceptance condition – the offeror holds at least 90% of the offer shares and the disinterested shares.
The acceptance condition is daunting due to the high hurdle rate and the lack of a bump. The current gross spread of 5.0% equals the premium to the undisturbed price.  


Hailan Holdings (2278 HK): Conditional Offer Open but Success Is Daunting

<ul>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ150 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and a bunch of other onshore China indices were implemented last week.</li>
<li>The coming week has a lot of rebalance implementations on Friday with the S&amp;P/ASX family and the MVIS family, among others.</li>
<li>AUM for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050 TT) has continued to increase with big inflows in the last week.</li>
</ul>


The changes for the KOSPI2 INDEX, KOSDAQ150 Index, CSI300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and a bunch of other onshore China indices were implemented last week.
The coming week has a lot of rebalance implementations on Friday with the S&amp;P/ASX family and the MVIS family, among others.
AUM for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050 TT) has continued to increase with big inflows in the last week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, GDXJ, KRX New Deal, AMFI, Amman Mineral, Infratil

Hong Kong

Zensun Enterprises is an investment holding company primarily engaged in property development, property investment and management, project management services, hotel operations, and securities trading and investment across Hong Kong, the PRC, and overseas. Its key activities include real estate development, hotel operations, and property investment in the USA through American Housing REIT, Inc.. The company was founded on April 3, 1965, and is headquartered in Hong Kong, China.

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Zensun Enterprises (185 HK)

Minmetals Land (230 HK): Scheme Vote on 9 February Is a Done Deal

This is a done deal in large part due to the significant takeover premium. At the last close price and for a 10 March payment, the gross/annualised...

Arun George

HSCI Index Rebalance: 22 Adds, 27 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 22 adds/ 27 deletes for the HSCI in Sep leading to 22 adds/ 24 deletes for Stock Connect. Since end June, shares held though Southbound...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

There could be nearly 50 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Hailan Holdings (2278 HK): Conditional Offer Open but Success Is Daunting

The acceptance condition is daunting due to the high hurdle rate and the lack of a bump. Risk/reward is unattractive as the current gross spread of...

Arun George

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, GDXJ, KRX New Deal, AMFI, Amman Mineral, Infratil

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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