Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Solid Q2 results from ZTO, with deep unit cost reductions offseting weak pricing</li>
<li>But ultimately, Q2/H1 results are merely in-line with guidance -- not better, nor worse</li>
<li>In this environment, it's difficult to see what will move ZTO out of recent trading range</li>
</ul>


Solid Q2 results from ZTO, with deep unit cost reductions offseting weak pricing
But ultimately, Q2/H1 results are merely in-line with guidance -- not better, nor worse
In this environment, it's difficult to see what will move ZTO out of recent trading range


ZTO Express Q2 Results: Strong on Volume | Weak on Price | Margins Up in Q2, But H2 Much Tougher

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SF Holding's HK listing document provides added details of current international revenue </li>
<li>Two recent moves show SF's intent to raise international sales (and reduce China exposure)</li>
<li>As SF Holding courts a global investor base, its comps will become the global express names</li>
</ul>


SF Holding's HK listing document provides added details of current international revenue 
Two recent moves show SF's intent to raise international sales (and reduce China exposure)
As SF Holding courts a global investor base, its comps will become the global express names


SF Holding HK IPO = A Drive to 'Internationalize' | Exposure Update | Recent Deals | New Comp Group

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>, the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, has filed for an H Share listing to raise US$2-3 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia, and the fourth largest player globally, in terms of revenue in 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</li>
<li>The key elements of the investment case rest on the primary business’ improving fundamentals, margin trajectory, cash generation, modest leverage and undemanding PEG multiples.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, has filed for an H Share listing to raise US$2-3 billion, according to press reports.   
SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia, and the fourth largest player globally, in terms of revenue in 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.
The key elements of the investment case rest on the primary business’ improving fundamentals, margin trajectory, cash generation, modest leverage and undemanding PEG multiples.


S.F. Holding H Share Listing: The Investment Case

<ul>
<li>Chinese express parcel volume growth was 11.7% in July, far slower than in Feb-May</li>
<li>July ASP for all segments fell to 8.84 Yuan per piece, the lowest in at least ten years</li>
<li>Industry leader SF Holding partly insulated from margin pressure by air, international </li>
</ul>


Chinese express parcel volume growth was 11.7% in July, far slower than in Feb-May
July ASP for all segments fell to 8.84 Yuan per piece, the lowest in at least ten years
Industry leader SF Holding partly insulated from margin pressure by air, international 


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Growth Slows | Pricing Hits Record Low | (August 2023)

<ul>
<li>SF Holding differs from its Chinese peers in several important ways, including business scale, its lack of a formal relationship with Alibaba, and its many non-express lines of business</li>
<li>SF also differs from the pre-Covid version of itself: it's far larger than it was in 2019, but core margins have declined, and internatonal exposure has risen dramatically</li>
<li>In this insight we also take a look at current EV/Revenue valuations vs peers and list important milestones to watch for ahead of the company's planned HK IPO</li>
</ul>


SF Holding differs from its Chinese peers in several important ways, including business scale, its lack of a formal relationship with Alibaba, and its many non-express lines of business
SF also differs from the pre-Covid version of itself: it's far larger than it was in 2019, but core margins have declined, and internatonal exposure has risen dramatically
In this insight we also take a look at current EV/Revenue valuations vs peers and list important milestones to watch for ahead of the company's planned HK IPO


A Look at How SF Holding Differs from A) Its Express Peers and B) The Pre-Covid Version of Itself

China

STO Express Co Ltd. develops, manufactures and markets valves, pipe fittings and plumbing equipment. The Company's business encompasses the    development, manufacturing, sales and servicing of plumbing equipment, valves,  pipe fittings, metal construction materials, home automation, environmental protection and energy control systems.

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STO Express (002468 CH)

ZTO Express Q2 Results: Strong on Volume | Weak on Price | Margins Up in Q2, But H2 Much Tougher

ZTO gained volume share in Q2, which allowed it to beat down unit costs and expand margins. Given recent price erosion, we think ZTO is unlikely to...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding HK IPO = A Drive to 'Internationalize' | Exposure Update | Recent Deals | New Comp Group

Internationalization is what SF Holding is aiming for as it seeks to sell shares in HK. This insight covers three facets of SF's...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Growth Slows | Pricing Hits Record Low | (August 2023)

Chinese parcel volume growth remained weak in July, and pricing fell to a new all-time low. But we believe SF Holding's unique revenue mix could...

Tracking Traffic

A Look at How SF Holding Differs from A) Its Express Peers and B) The Pre-Covid Version of Itself

In this insight we compare today's SF Holding to its Chinese peers and to the pre-Covid version of itself. We also look at EV/Sales valuations and...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ZTO Express Q2 Results: Strong on Volume | Weak on Price | Margins Up in Q2, But H2 Much Tougher

ZTO gained volume share in Q2, which allowed it to beat down unit costs and expand margins. Given recent price erosion, we think ZTO is unlikely to...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding HK IPO = A Drive to 'Internationalize' | Exposure Update | Recent Deals | New Comp Group

Internationalization is what SF Holding is aiming for as it seeks to sell shares in HK. This insight covers three facets of SF's...

Tracking Traffic

S.F. Holding H Share Listing: The Investment Case

The key elements of the investment case rest on the primary business’ improving fundamentals, margin trajectory, cash generation, modest leverage...

Arun George

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Growth Slows | Pricing Hits Record Low | (August 2023)

Chinese parcel volume growth remained weak in July, and pricing fell to a new all-time low. But we believe SF Holding's unique revenue mix could...

Tracking Traffic

A Look at How SF Holding Differs from A) Its Express Peers and B) The Pre-Covid Version of Itself

In this insight we compare today's SF Holding to its Chinese peers and to the pre-Covid version of itself. We also look at EV/Sales valuations and...

Tracking Traffic