Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In June, mainstream parcel pricing declined by over 10% Y/Y, but SF Holding saw ASPs rise</li>
<li>We believe J&amp;T Global Express' planned IPO could negatively impact the industry in H2</li>
<li>Pricing pressure has increased, in our view, and we expect margins to decline in H2 23</li>
</ul>


In June, mainstream parcel pricing declined by over 10% Y/Y, but SF Holding saw ASPs rise
We believe J&amp;T Global Express' planned IPO could negatively impact the industry in H2
Pricing pressure has increased, in our view, and we expect margins to decline in H2 23


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Mainstream ASPs Down 10% in June | J&T IPO Impact? | (July 2023)

<ul>
<li>In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April</li>
<li>We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits</li>
<li>Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance</li>
</ul>


In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April
We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits
Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance


Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash burn and weak balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
In J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash burn and weak balance sheet.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>J&amp;T is the number one express delivery operator in Southeast Asia by parcel volume from 2020 to 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which set a path to profitability.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
J&amp;T is the number one express delivery operator in Southeast Asia by parcel volume from 2020 to 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. 
The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which set a path to profitability.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 28th Mar 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.</li>
<li>Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about some of the company’s investments and how the overall Holdco would look post restructuring.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
In this note, we will talk about some of the company’s investments and how the overall Holdco would look post restructuring.


Alibaba Potential IPOs - The Final Part - Quick Look at Investees and Eventual Holdco

China

STO Express Co Ltd. develops, manufactures and markets valves, pipe fittings and plumbing equipment. The Company's business encompasses the    development, manufacturing, sales and servicing of plumbing equipment, valves,  pipe fittings, metal construction materials, home automation, environmental protection and energy control systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

STO Express (002468 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Mainstream ASPs Down 10% in June | J&T IPO Impact? | (July 2023)

Monthly figures from the China-listed express companies show that parcel pricing continued to decline in June, with slowing e-commerce sales and...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

In May, pricing weakened and volume growth moderated; we expect these two trends to hurt Q2 results. We also believe the planned J&T Global Express...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash...

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which...

Arun George

Alibaba Potential IPOs - The Final Part - Quick Look at Investees and Eventual Holdco

Continuining with our series of notes on Alibaba's planned six way reorganisation, in this note, we talk about its investments and eventual holdco.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)