Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In H1 and Q2 this year, JD Logistics' top-line growth remained strong, growing by 20%+</li>
<li>But margins have continued to erode in recent periods, probably due to changes in mix</li>
<li>Down close to HK$10 per share, we believe lots of negativity is "baked in" to price</li>
</ul>


In H1 and Q2 this year, JD Logistics' top-line growth remained strong, growing by 20%+
But margins have continued to erode in recent periods, probably due to changes in mix
Down close to HK$10 per share, we believe lots of negativity is "baked in" to price


JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism

<ul>
<li>China-Listed express firms reported softer volume growth in August (vs July and Q2)</li>
<li>SF Holding and Yunda Holding continued to lose share in August; STO Express gained</li>
<li>We believe softer volume growth in August could indicate weak online retail activity</li>
</ul>


China-Listed express firms reported softer volume growth in August (vs July and Q2)
SF Holding and Yunda Holding continued to lose share in August; STO Express gained
We believe softer volume growth in August could indicate weak online retail activity


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August Growth Slowed Vs July, Q2 | Suggests Softer Online Retail

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We believe the price floor of RMB1.4/parcel shipment set by the Guangdong’s authority is a forceful move to put the brakes on the price war in the express delivery sector.</li><li>Most importantly, we believe Guangdong, being the largest province in terms of both parcel volume and revenue, will set an example of “anti-involution”, which will potentially trigger more provinces to follow suit.</li><li>We reiterate our view that this round of “anti-involution” campaign will be similar to the one in 2021, which will boost parcel price hike and serve as a positive catalyst over the coming 3-6 months. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We believe the price floor of RMB1.4/parcel shipment set by the Guangdong’s authority is a forceful move to put the brakes on the price war in the express delivery sector.Most importantly, we believe Guangdong, being the largest province in terms of both parcel volume and revenue, will set an example of “anti-involution”, which will potentially trigger more provinces to follow suit.We reiterate our view that this round of “anti-involution” campaign will be similar to the one in 2021, which will boost parcel price hike and serve as a positive catalyst over the coming 3-6 months. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Logistics - Price Floor in Guangdong Likely Set an Example for Other Regions...

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;</li>
<li>BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;</li>
<li>Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.</li>
</ul>


Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;
BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;
Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

<ul>
<li>Following a year of pure low-price competition, e-commerce platforms are shifting towards providing better services to customers - the major focus of this upgrade has been logistics. </li>
<li>This shift has has manifested through (1) the opening of Taobao/Tmall's merchant back-end to JD Logistics, (2) the resurgence of O2O, and (3) algorithm weighting tilt towards higher-scoring merchants.</li>
<li>Amid this shift we prefer JD Logistics (2618 HK) followed by ZTO (ZTO US). We are most negative towards S.F. Holding (002352 CH) followed by J&amp;T Express (1519 HK).</li>
</ul>


Following a year of pure low-price competition, e-commerce platforms are shifting towards providing better services to customers - the major focus of this upgrade has been logistics. 
This shift has has manifested through (1) the opening of Taobao/Tmall's merchant back-end to JD Logistics, (2) the resurgence of O2O, and (3) algorithm weighting tilt towards higher-scoring merchants.
Amid this shift we prefer JD Logistics (2618 HK) followed by ZTO (ZTO US). We are most negative towards S.F. Holding (002352 CH) followed by J&amp;T Express (1519 HK).


Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

China

STO Express Co Ltd. develops, manufactures and markets valves, pipe fittings and plumbing equipment. The Company's business encompasses the    development, manufacturing, sales and servicing of plumbing equipment, valves,  pipe fittings, metal construction materials, home automation, environmental protection and energy control systems.

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STO Express (002468 CH)

JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism

Shares have "round tripped" since March 2026 and at HK$10 there appears to be lots of negativity baked into the price. At just 8x consensus 2026F...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August Growth Slowed Vs July, Q2 | Suggests Softer Online Retail

Chinese domestic express parcel volume growth slowed in August (vs July and Q2), suggesting softer online retail activity. For stronger growth in...

Tracking Traffic

Logistics - Price Floor in Guangdong Likely Set an Example for Other Regions...

We believe the price floor of RMB1.4/parcel shipment set by the Guangdong’s authority is a forceful move to put the brakes on the price war in the...

CMB International

Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism

Shares have "round tripped" since March 2026 and at HK$10 there appears to be lots of negativity baked into the price. At just 8x consensus 2026F...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August Growth Slowed Vs July, Q2 | Suggests Softer Online Retail

Chinese domestic express parcel volume growth slowed in August (vs July and Q2), suggesting softer online retail activity. For stronger growth in...

Tracking Traffic

Logistics - Price Floor in Guangdong Likely Set an Example for Other Regions...

We believe the price floor of RMB1.4/parcel shipment set by the Guangdong’s authority is a forceful move to put the brakes on the price war in the...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

​CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

​E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...