IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201176" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-2259-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:202646" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.
The IPO was discussed in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


Chery Automobile / Equity Capital Markets

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chery-automobile-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39918:1" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile (9973</a><a target="_blank">. HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$30.75 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$1.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 25.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chery-automobile-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200985" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chery-automobile-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201049" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chery-automobile-ipo-9973-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:202204" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile IPO (9973 HK): Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has declined since the IPO launch. Chery Auto is fairly valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



Chery Automobile (9973. HK) priced its IPO at HK$30.75 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$1.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 25.
The IPO was discussed in Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case, Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case and Chery Automobile IPO (9973 HK): Valuation Insights. 
The market sentiment of the peers has declined since the IPO launch. Chery Auto is fairly valued at the IPO price.


Chery Automobile IPO (9973 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.</li>
<li>The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a> to open around HK$44.55/share.</li>
<li>There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> trackers is more nuanced.</li>
</ul>



NIO (9866 HK) / NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.
The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. NIO (NIO US) closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect NIO (9866 HK) to open around HK$44.55/share.
There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) trackers is more nuanced.


NIO (9866 HK/NIO US): Index Implications of US$1bn+ Offering

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a>, a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion. </li>
<li>The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.</li>
<li>While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.  </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US), a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion. 
The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.
While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.  


NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.</li>
<li>The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  </li>
<li>Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH's peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  
Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH's peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation

China

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologies Ltd. operates as an electric vehicles manufacturer. The Company develops and sells electric vehicles and other products. Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologies markets its products throughout China.

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Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

Arun George

Chery Automobile IPO (9973 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

The IPO was priced at the top of the IPO range. The market sentiment of the peers has declined since the IPO launch. Chery Auto is fairly valued at...

Arun George

NIO (9866 HK/NIO US): Index Implications of US$1bn+ Offering

NIO (9866 HK) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn in an equity offering across HK/US. Global passive trackers will buy around 13% of the offering....

Brian Freitas

NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise

While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying...

Arun George

Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation

Tricky trade. I might've been overly bullish in my initial note. The gross spread (to my implied price) is perhaps ~11%. If not in, I'd be inclined...

David Blennerhassett

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