Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;</li>
<li>BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;</li>
<li>Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.</li>
</ul>


Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;
BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;
Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.</li><li>Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.</li><li>Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

<ul><li>We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.</li><li>The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

<ul>
<li>US and China are two biggest markets in autonomous driving and robotaxi. However, due to US-China decoupling, each market is off limits to the other;</li>
<li>This makes non-US/non-China markets heavily contended. Uber and Lyft leads Didi and Meituan in globalization. But Chinese EV makers and ADS vendors might benefit from partnering with the two;</li>
<li>We expect companies with low priced vehicle production capacity, like BYD, XPEV, LEAP and Zeekr to  benefit more. Among ADS vendors, WeRide and Poni.AI stand out.</li>
</ul>


US and China are two biggest markets in autonomous driving and robotaxi. However, due to US-China decoupling, each market is off limits to the other;
This makes non-US/non-China markets heavily contended. Uber and Lyft leads Didi and Meituan in globalization. But Chinese EV makers and ADS vendors might benefit from partnering with the two;
We expect companies with low priced vehicle production capacity, like BYD, XPEV, LEAP and Zeekr to  benefit more. Among ADS vendors, WeRide and Poni.AI stand out.


Prospectus of Robotaxi Outside of China and US Is Bright for Chinese Supply Chains

<ul>
<li>
Macro: China may issue RMB3tn of special treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, 3rd highest in history;</li>
<li>
EV: BEV sector showed renewed interest with (1) CATL made battery swapping move, (2) Xiaomi gained access to charging network of NIO, XPEV and LI;</li>
<li>
SaaS: After making progress by its own, Beike terminated a major acquisition to save cost. Plus others...</li>
</ul>



Macro: China may issue RMB3tn of special treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, 3rd highest in history;

EV: BEV sector showed renewed interest with (1) CATL made battery swapping move, (2) Xiaomi gained access to charging network of NIO, XPEV and LI;

SaaS: After making progress by its own, Beike terminated a major acquisition to save cost. Plus others...


China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

China

Leapmotor is a Chinese automobile manufacturer specializing in the research, development, production, and sales of intelligent electric vehicles (EVs), including sedans, SUVs, and microcars. The company also develops core EV components such as intelligent driving systems, electric drive assemblies, and battery systems. Founded in December 2015, Leapmotor is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Leapmotor (9863 HK)

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers. Net losses of Xpeng could...

CMB International

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

Prospectus of Robotaxi Outside of China and US Is Bright for Chinese Supply Chains

US-China decoupling splits the biggest and the 2nd biggest ride hailing market, which raise the importance of non-US, non China markets. We see...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

​CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers. Net losses of Xpeng could...

CMB International

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

Prospectus of Robotaxi Outside of China and US Is Bright for Chinese Supply Chains

​US-China decoupling splits the biggest and the 2nd biggest ride hailing market, which raise the importance of non-US, non China markets. We see...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

​China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

US-China decoupling splits the biggest and the 2nd biggest ride hailing market, which raise the importance of non-US, non China markets. We see...

China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...