Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia, Forsyth Barr Asia

David Millhouse

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia

Forsyth Barr Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative announcements (corruption crackdowns, insider selling at SOEs, regulator speeding up IPO approvals), the KEY reason for the move was the margin trading suspension at three of the largest brokers in China. The brokers, banks and insurance sectors were all limit down. Below we look to explain:<ol><li>What changes to margin trading have been made, and the implications </li><li>How large margin trading in China is </li><li>Does this mean the government wants the stock market down </li><li>Our view on A-share market going forward </li></ol>

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative announcements (corruption crackdowns, insider selling at SOEs, regulator speeding up IPO approvals), the KEY reason for the move was the margin trading suspension at three of the largest brokers in China. The brokers, banks and insurance sectors were all limit down. Below we look to explain:What changes to margin trading have been made, and the implications How large margin trading in China is Does this mean the government wants the stock market down Our view on A-share market going forward 

This week's flash-crash in China: thoughts and implications

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for SMIC, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, Pop Mart Intl, China Mobile, Meituan, Innovent Biologics, ICBC, Wuxi Biologics.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for SMIC, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, Pop Mart Intl, China Mobile, Meituan, Innovent Biologics, ICBC, Wuxi Biologics.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 17th): SMIC, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, Pop Mart Intl, China Mobile

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 26th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, China Telecom, HKEx, Hua Hong Semiconductor.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 26th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, China Telecom, HKEx, Hua Hong Semiconductor.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 26th): Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ZhongAn delivered strong 1H results, with net profit surging 11.04x YoY to RMB 668mn, translating to 66% of our previous full-year forecasts driven by significant profit uplifts in all three core business segments.</li><li>For P&amp;C insurance, 1H25 CoR dropped 2.3pct YoY to 95.6%, with comprehensive loss ratio down 6pct YoY to 54.7% offset by a rise of comprehensive expense ratio by 3.7pct YoY to 40.9%, which led to a more-than-doubled underwriting profit of RMB 627mn (+123%).</li><li>ZA Bank turned a net profit of HK$49mn in 1H25, ahead of the market expectation for breakeven by year-end. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZhongAn delivered strong 1H results, with net profit surging 11.04x YoY to RMB 668mn, translating to 66% of our previous full-year forecasts driven by significant profit uplifts in all three core business segments.For P&amp;C insurance, 1H25 CoR dropped 2.3pct YoY to 95.6%, with comprehensive loss ratio down 6pct YoY to 54.7% offset by a rise of comprehensive expense ratio by 3.7pct YoY to 40.9%, which led to a more-than-doubled underwriting profit of RMB 627mn (+123%).ZA Bank turned a net profit of HK$49mn in 1H25, ahead of the market expectation for breakeven by year-end. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZhongAn (6060 HK) - 1H Earnings a Clear Beat; ZA Bank Turned Profit Faster than Expected

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 18th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, Cspc Pharma, Galaxy Ent, ABC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 18th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, Cspc Pharma, Galaxy Ent, ABC.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, Cspc Pharma, Galaxy Ent, ABC

China

ZhongAn Online is China's first online-only insurance company, providing internet insurance services and insurance information technology services. It offers personalized products across health, digital life, consumer finance, and automotive ecosystems, and also provides IT consulting and digital banking services. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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ZhongAn Online (6060 HK)

This week's flash-crash in China: thoughts and implications

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative...

David Millhouse

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 17th): SMIC, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, Pop Mart Intl, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for SMIC (981 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 26th): Alibaba, Shandong Hi-Speed, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba (9988 HK), Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK), Meituan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ZhongAn (6060 HK) - 1H Earnings a Clear Beat; ZA Bank Turned Profit Faster than Expected

ZhongAn delivered strong 1H results, with net profit surging 11.04x YoY to RMB 668mn, translating to 66% of our previous full-year forecasts driven...

CMB International

HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, Cspc Pharma, Galaxy Ent, ABC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 18th and highlight short interest changes in Kuaishou, Cspc Pharma,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)