Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

<ul>
<li>Over 85% of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the December rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.93% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.93bn.</li>
<li>The huge inflow to passive trackers has led to the gap between the potential adds and deletes narrowing. That should reverse as passive will need to sell the deletes.</li>
</ul>


Over 85% of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the December rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 8 December.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.93% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.93bn.
The huge inflow to passive trackers has led to the gap between the potential adds and deletes narrowing. That should reverse as passive will need to sell the deletes.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Potential Changes in December

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Innolight released 1H23 results. Total revenue was RMB4,004mn (-5.4% YoY), mixed impacts from increasing demand for AI-related transceivers and deteriorated demand for traditional datacenter products.</li><li>NP was RMB613.8mn (24.6% YoY), mainly driven by higher GPM and operating cost optimization.</li><li>1H23 NP was close to the mid-point of the preliminary range. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Innolight released 1H23 results. Total revenue was RMB4,004mn (-5.4% YoY), mixed impacts from increasing demand for AI-related transceivers and deteriorated demand for traditional datacenter products.NP was RMB613.8mn (24.6% YoY), mainly driven by higher GPM and operating cost optimization.1H23 NP was close to the mid-point of the preliminary range. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Innolight (300308 CH) – Investors Focusing on 800G Transceivers Ramp-Up After 1H23 Results

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 25th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$3,207.8 million, led by consumer staples, industrials, and offset by communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai, CMB, Ping An Insurance, Longi Green, Mindray, Wuliangye, ZTE, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Luxshare Precision, Ping An Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 25th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$3,207.8 million, led by consumer staples, industrials, and offset by communication services.
We highlight flows for Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai, CMB, Ping An Insurance, Longi Green, Mindray, Wuliangye, ZTE, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Luxshare Precision, Ping An Bank.


Northbound Flows (Aug 25th): Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai, CMB

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 21st.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,012.2 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, communication services, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 21st.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,012.2 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, communication services, real estate.
We highlight flows for ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL.


Northbound Flows (Jul 21st): ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL

China

Zhongji Innolight Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes industrial machines and machine parts. The Company produces motor stator windings, insulating machines, coil winding equipment, automatic production lines, and more. Zhongji Innolight mainly conducts businesses domestically.

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Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Potential Changes in December

There could be 14 changes for the CSI300 in Dec. We estimate one-way turnover of 1.93% and one-way trade of CNY 6.93bn. Materials lose the most...

Brian Freitas

Innolight (300308 CH) – Investors Focusing on 800G Transceivers Ramp-Up After 1H23 Results

NP was RMB613.8mn (24.6% YoY), mainly driven by higher GPM and operating cost optimization. 1H23 NP was close to the mid-point of the preliminary...

CMB International

Northbound Flows (Aug 25th): Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai, CMB

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jul 21st): ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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